Coronavirus Thread

[martyn]

9 hours ago, simFox said:

Her immune system seemed to work the first time she had it?

 

It is my undertanding you can still catch it and spread it on, vaccine just stops you from dieing. Seeing as Covid only kills 0.05% of the people it infects and the vaccine is only 90% effective. Lets hope she's not in the 10%

 

 

Can you provide your data to show that Covid kills 0.05% of people it infects?

[Nalis]

17 minutes ago, Tommy G said:

Various news outlets reporting the R number will never dip below 1 even when the majority of the population is vaccinated. Not sure where to go with this but cant see anything getting any better anytime soon. Absolute guarentee in the next few weeks to see that the vaccines wont protect against a mutated strain - either Brazil, Kent or South Africa 

Can we have some sources please?

[martyn]

2 hours ago, ealingfox said:

After March, if they are even close to hitting vaccination targets, it will be very hard to justify this awful bollocks continuing.

We're all sick of living like this, but statements such as this don't really make sense to me.

 

Not overwhelming the NHS seems to be the #1 factor behind deciding how and when to implement restrictions.

 

Assuming that remains the plan, restrictions will therefore surely only be lifted at a point where "enough" have been vaccinated, and it's efficacy proved in a big cohort of people to such a point that lifting restrictions doesn't cause such a spread of the virus to push the NHS to breaking point again. The number crunchers will come to the conclusion as to when that should be. Whether the government listen remains to be seen

Edited 21 January 2021 by martyn

[Foxy-Lady]

6 minutes ago, martyn said:

Can you provide your data to show that Covid kills 0.05% of people it infects?

Not sure of 0.05%??   think this is closer to the death rate Vs total population

 

data below suggests 2.6%, although we all know the Total Covid reported deaths figure is probably massively inflated as it covers any death within 28 days of a positive test.... regardless of whether Covid was the actual cause of death

 

[dsr-burnley]

21 minutes ago, Tommy G said:

Various news outlets reporting the R number will never dip below 1 even when the majority of the population is vaccinated. Not sure where to go with this but cant see anything getting any better anytime soon. Absolute guarentee in the next few weeks to see that the vaccines wont protect against a mutated strain - either Brazil, Kent or South Africa 

If they R number never dips below 1, then the number of cases will rise and rise and rise until we all have to catch it several times a day to keep up.

[Facecloth]

8 minutes ago, Tommy G said:

Various news outlets reporting the R number will never dip below 1 even when the majority of the population is vaccinated. Not sure where to go with this but cant see anything getting any better anytime soon. Absolute guarentee in the next few weeks to see that the vaccines wont protect against a mutated strain - either Brazil, Kent or South Africa 

The R rate will never drop below 1 technically because the vaccine doesn't stop you getting it, just stops you getting ill with it. So if the majority of us are vaccinated then the R number can be whatever, because if we aren't going to hospital and aren't dying, what's the problem? If it doesn't protect against the new mutant strains then we have a problem.

[Leicester_Loyal]

366,919 vaccines announced today.

 

363,508 first doses.

3411 second doses.

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

 

 

Edited 21 January 2021 by Leicester_Loyal

[martyn]

2 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

The R rate will never drop below 1 technically because the vaccine doesn't stop you getting it, just stops you getting ill with it. So if the majority of us are vaccinated then the R number can be whatever, because if we aren't going to hospital and aren't dying, what's the problem? If it doesn't protect against the new mutant strains then we have a problem.

Unless i've missed something I'm not sure we have any real understanding yet about whether being vaccinated has an effect on being able to transmit the virus. If it transpired that it did, then depending to what degree then that could potentially keep R rates lower.

[StanSP]

5 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

366,919 vaccines announced today.

 

363,508 first doses.

3411 second doses.

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

 

 

Decent numbers again. Highest so far. 

[Robo61]

9 minutes ago, Foxy-Lady said:

Not sure of 0.05%??   think this is closer to the death rate Vs total population

 

data below suggests 2.6%, although we all know the Total Covid reported deaths figure is probably massively inflated as it covers any death within 28 days of a positive test.... regardless of whether Covid was the actual cause of death

 

Sorry but all the other evidence (excess deaths/Covid of deah certs) points to the oppostire beng the case,  though in the same ball park.  Also there is likley to be many more who have died from Covid beyond the 28days,  than have died as a result of a car crash for instance.  Though the number of Covid cases is well under reported as many who have had it have not taken a test as tests were either unavalible at the time,  or they have had no symptoms. 

[Facecloth]

2 minutes ago, martyn said:

Unless i've missed something I'm not sure we have any real understanding yet about whether being vaccinated has an effect on being able to transmit the virus. If it transpired that it did, then depending to what degree then that could potentially keep R rates lower.

Yeah I was just answering the point that if the vaccine is protecting us from getting ill and dying, but we are still contracting the virus, then R rate is kind of irrelevant, as the whole point of lockdown is to lower transmissions because we're overwhelming the health service and thousands are dying. If we've eradicated the problem of deaths and hospitalisations then the R number can be 5, it doesn't matter anymore because its not killing everyone granny or your mate with diabetes.

[martyn]

Just now, Facecloth said:

Yeah I was just answering the point that if the vaccine is protecting us from getting ill and dying, but we are still contracting the virus, then R rate is kind of irrelevant, as the whole point of lockdown is to lower transmissions because we're overwhelming the health service and thousands are dying. If we've eradicated the problem of deaths and hospitalisations then the R number can be 5, it doesn't matter anymore because its not killing everyone granny or your mate with diabetes.

I guess the benefit of a lower R number (if vaccines reduce transmissibility) is that it would theoretically take longer for mutations to appear which might evade it.

[Facecloth]

2 minutes ago, martyn said:

I guess the benefit of a lower R number (if vaccines reduce transmissibility) is that it would theoretically take longer for mutations to appear which might evade it.

Thats true, I just think a headline stating "We'll never get below 1" is scaremongering. The lower the better clearly, but if we wanted that we'd have had tougher lockdowns where we could barely leave the house. It seems counter productive to the economy to protect all these people but the not allow things to start reopening.

[Dunge]

23 minutes ago, Foxy-Lady said:

Not sure of 0.05%??   think this is closer to the death rate Vs total population

 

data below suggests 2.6%, although we all know the Total Covid reported deaths figure is probably massively inflated as it covers any death within 28 days of a positive test.... regardless of whether Covid was the actual cause of death

 

It’s assumed to be around 0.5% overall, not 0.05%. In the UK many cases don’t get or haven’t been recorded, and the deaths are likely over-reported to a degree (but not a high one), but with our demographics (relative levels of age and vulnerability) the case fatality rate will likely still be a bit higher than 0.5%.

 

As for the R rate, that’s likely to come down to a question of definition. For instance, there’s a big difference between what the R rate is right now and what it would be with no restrictions and no vaccine rollout. We’d definitely need to see the context of the “R rate never lower than 1” comment to make sense of it, because it could mean a lot of things, some of which may be obvious framing.

[zorro en españa]

Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, has said it is unlikely that the country will welcome international tourists until the end of the summer - speech delivered to a body ka the World Tourism Organisation last night.

 

Plan accordingly.

Edited 21 January 2021 by zorro en españa
auto correct

[stretch1965]

Took my mother in law for her vaccine today at earl Shilton , there was quite the queue but was really impressed how quick it went down due to numerous staff   Working the Q filling in the forms and getting signatures etc. Was told they had the Oxford vaccine in today and were doing 900.

[RowlattsFox]

9 minutes ago, zorro en españa said:

Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, has said it is unlikely that the country will welcome international tourists until the end of the summer - speech delivered to a body ka the World Tourism Organisation last night.

 

Plan accordingly.

Bollocks 

 

It's too early to say for definite though, so keeping my fingers crossed. 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

13 minutes ago, zorro en españa said:

Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, has said it is unlikely that the country will welcome international tourists until the end of the summer - speech delivered to a body ka the World Tourism Organisation last night.

 

Plan accordingly.

Pedro Sanchez is possibly the most stereotypical name I have ever heard  

[DennisNedry]

According to WHO data, the death rate is approximately 0.27%.

 

Source: https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

[Izzy]

6 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Pedro Sanchez is possibly the most stereotypical name I have ever heard  

It translates to John Smith apparently 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Just now, Izzy said:

It translates to John Smith apparently 

Middle name has to be Manuel  

[Col city fan]

Really glad the police are finally starting to clamp down, hand out more fines and to punish these daft cvnts organising and attending these parties.

It should have happened a lot sooner though

And people on here STILL lay the sole blame at the feet of the state

[Nod.E]

6 minutes ago, Col city fan said:

Really glad the police are finally starting to clamp down, hand out more fines and to punish these daft cvnts organising and attending these parties.

It should have happened a lot sooner though

And people on here STILL lay the sole blame at the feet of the state

Every country has its idiots. The proportion of idiots is not the variable that determines the number of deaths. You're telling me as a population, Brits are more than twice as unruly than the Germans, as an example? 1,389 UK vs. 603 DE deaths per 1 million.

 

We're not hard wired to be cvnts. That's not how it works. We're a population led by our leaders and our behaviours, opinions and actions are directly influenced by the actions and communications from the top.

 

Shocking as this may be to you, we all like to think we have free will. We don't. We're ruled by emotions and our emotions are influenced by what we're told. It's the same reason that advertising works despite the average person on the street proudly stating it has no effect on them. (Yet they keep stuffed meerkat toys in their front room from an insurance broker.)

[Tuna]

Why must we endure endless questions on booking summer holidays from journos at these press conferences?

[Voll Blau]

23 minutes ago, Col city fan said:

Really glad the police are finally starting to clamp down, hand out more fines and to punish these daft cvnts organising and attending these parties.

It should have happened a lot sooner though

And people on here STILL lay the sole blame at the feet of the state

£800 is bollock all for a party of 15+ though. £53 per guest if you get caught?

 

Even so, just have a party of 14 and there's still no comeback.