Coronavirus Thread

[Ric Flair]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I don't see any evidence to the contrary tbh. Self-interest is always a hugely powerful motivator.

 

I would posit that there is rather a large difference in effect between the standard influenza and Covid, but as per above, you're right in that people don't tend to want to think about problems unless they're knocking directly at their door. See also; constantly rising average Earth temperatures already causing nastiness that will only get nastier.

 

Lack of foresight beyond our own line of sight can sometimes help, but in many cases it may well be a fatal hindrance.

Personally I'm so proud of our population despite some of us being vilified and made to be seen as the enemy, are turning out in numbers far exceeding what the government and scientists predicted. Perhaps that's the whole point of this witch hunt, to provoke more people in to having the vaccine that ordinarily wouldn't have bothered but either way they need to shut up now and get on with letting us live our lives.

[WigstonWanderer]

From what I can make out, the uptake of vaccine by everyone over there, young and old,  has been excellent. I think you are all to be commended. Hopefully within a few months all doubt will be banished and life can get back to something like normal.

Edited 15 June 2021 by WigstonWanderer

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, Ric Flair said:

Personally I'm so proud of our population despite some of us being vilified and made to be seen as the enemy, are turning out in numbers far exceeding what the government and scientists predicted. Perhaps that's the whole point of this witch hunt, to provoke more people in to having the vaccine that ordinarily wouldn't have bothered but either way they need to shut up now and get on with letting us live our lives.

I actually wrote a piece on something approaching this a little while back, I'll quote.

 

"....there is considerable difference in viewpoint in the US towards the vaccine depending on political affiliation (CNN, 2021). Increased access to knowledge, rather than ensuring consensus, increased polarisation in positions on the matter. In the case of the vaccine in the UK, however, there seems to have been bipartisan ideological support for the vaccine resulting in a remarkably low vaccine hesitancy rate. Exactly why is unclear, but a possible cause is that both "sides” of the partisan divide and personality types found a reason to agree with the science in this case: the one side based on their wish for greater social benefits from the vaccine being administered, and other side through wanting to back a British-made vaccine, British "success" and resultant national prestige. What it has shown, however, is that the relationship between science and society can become productively aligned if the circumstances are right, and differences in worldview do not always result in polarisation on scientific matters regardless of knowledge level."

 

So based on my digging there could be any number of reasons why people of all stripes have gone along with the vaccine instead of the thing being more divisive, that's just a couple of possibles. I would say however that I think such confluences are rare and so we should be proud that the UK populace have done the right thing in damn good numbers, but I'm not sure how much I'd expect such confluences to happen again when they're needed.

 

I would agree that once as many people as possible are double dosed (given it seems to work against all variants) there is no reason to keep anything shut down within the country itself.

 

 

[Dunge]

15 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I actually wrote a piece on something approaching this a little while back, I'll quote.

 

"....there is considerable difference in viewpoint in the US towards the vaccine depending on political affiliation (CNN, 2021). Increased access to knowledge, rather than ensuring consensus, increased polarisation in positions on the matter. In the case of the vaccine in the UK, however, there seems to have been bipartisan ideological support for the vaccine resulting in a remarkably low vaccine hesitancy rate. Exactly why is unclear, but a possible cause is that both "sides” of the partisan divide and personality types found a reason to agree with the science in this case: the one side based on their wish for greater social benefits from the vaccine being administered, and other side through wanting to back a British-made vaccine, British "success" and resultant national prestige. What it has shown, however, is that the relationship between science and society can become productively aligned if the circumstances are right, and differences in worldview do not always result in polarisation on scientific matters regardless of knowledge level."

 

So based on my digging there could be any number of reasons why people of all stripes have gone along with the vaccine instead of the thing being more divisive, that's just a couple of possibles. I would say however that I think such confluences are rare and so we should be proud that the UK populace have done the right thing in damn good numbers, but I'm not sure how much I'd expect such confluences to happen again when they're needed.

 

I would agree that once as many people as possible are double dosed (given it seems to work against all variants) there is no reason to keep anything shut down within the country itself.

 

 

I think this is bang-on.

 

*Probably worth adding that I think the Brits have a generally good relationship with science anyway, but the rates of vaccine hesitancy have been strikingly low regardless.

Edited 15 June 2021 by Dunge

[Paninistickers]

11 minutes ago, Dunge said:

I think this is bang-on.

 

*Probably worth adding that I think the Brits have a generally good relationship with science anyway, but the rates of vaccine hesitancy have been strikingly low regardless.

I hate to say this, but I wonder if vaccine hesitation has been low in the UK as a large part of the  population is as thick as shite.  

 

Using the group of parents at my kids school as a sample cross section of Lower middle class uk.life, I'd reckon so.long as deliveroo, amazon,  netflix and their garden hot tub all work..the world could go to hell in a handcart.

 

 

[leicsmac]

Just now, Paninistickers said:

I hate to say this, but I wonder if vaccine hesitation has been low in the UK as a large part of the  population is as thick as shite.  

 

Using the group of parents at my kids school as a sample cross section of Lower middle class uk.life, I'd reckon so.long as deliveroo, amazon,  netflix and their garden hot tub all work..the world could go to hell in a handcart.

 

 

It's a possibility, but if that were the case you'd be seeing similarly low vaccine hesitancy in other places too (the US springs to mind) and from what I have found out that isn't the case.

[Paninistickers]

8 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

It's a possibility, but if that were the case you'd be seeing similarly low vaccine hesitancy in other places too (the US springs to mind) and from what I have found out that isn't the case.

Our immigrant (historic immigrant) population is probably as reticent and distrustful of the state as Latinos and blacks in the US. 

 

The morencompliamt.and unquestiong white working and middle classes form.a.smaller % of US population than it does in the UK

Edited 15 June 2021 by Paninistickers

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

Our immigrant (historic immigrant) population is probably as reticent and distrustful of the state as Latinos and blacks in the US. 

 

The morencompliamt.and unquestiong white working and middle classes form.a.smaller % of US population than it does in the UK

I actually did some digging on this just now:

 

https://data.cdc.gov/stories/s/Vaccine-Hesitancy-for-COVID-19/cnd2-a6zw/

 

Seems like the spots for "strong hesitancy" are Missouri, Kentucky, Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas - not really areas I would associate with high ethnic minority populations.

 

And such "strong hesitancy" as opposed to just "hesitancy" climbs up to 18% in some places, with just "hesitancy" topping out at 25% . That's higher than any demographic in the UK apart from Black British,every other group was 12% or less.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandvaccinehesitancygreatbritain/31marchto25april

 

I'd say hesitancy is higher overall on average in the US, looking at the broad map.

[filbertway]

Nice to see infections below 8k again today. If the majority of cases remain under 10k for the next week or so could we be seeing evidence of the peak already being hit and vaccines really doing the job. Considering we're testing almost a million people a day, it's heartening to see the rise seeming to slow down.

 

Cue cases per day being 15k by Friday

 

[yorkie1999]

37 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

I hate to say this, but I wonder if vaccine hesitation has been low in the UK as a large part of the  population is as thick as shite.  

 

Using the group of parents at my kids school as a sample cross section of Lower middle class uk.life, I'd reckon so.long as deliveroo, amazon,  netflix and their garden hot tub all work..the world could go to hell in a handcart.

 

 

Don't you mean a large part of the population of the circles that you move in are as thick as shit.

[Leicester_Loyal]

 

 

 

What is actually going on?!

[Legend_in_blue]

Just now, Leicester_Loyal said:

 

 

 

What is actually going on?!

It's best not to think about it.  The way in which they've presented "data" is a total ****take.  The more you pick holes, the more it'll wind you up.  There is no point.  Not worth it.

 

Fact of the matter is they've extended for 4 weeks to save thousands.  Although mathematically this is impossible on current trends in actual data, perhaps Bojo can't tell the difference between a linear scale and a log scale, whatever, he's a liar.

 

A 4 week delay will be followed by a further delay.  There is no logical conclusion to the 4 point rule on easing restrictions.  They are worded in such a way that it is impossible to find an escape plan.

[oxford blue]

2 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

 

 

 

What is actually going on?!

This shows the effect of hospitalisation only. This from The Lancet on effectiveness of vaccines on Delya variant shows AZ vaccine in particular is not as effective

 

Considering the whole population cohort (rather than just hospital cases), the test-negative analysis to estimate vaccine effectiveness in preventing RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection showed that, compared to those unvaccinated, at least 14 days after the second dose, BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine) offered very good protection: 92% (95% CI 90–93) S gene-negative, 79% (75–82) S gene-positive. Protection associated with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine) was, however, substantial but reduced: 73% (95% CI 66–78) 

 

Th majority of population have had the AZ vaccine which in some cases is only 66% effective, averaging  73%. Given the delta variant is 60% more transmissible it does make sense to try to reduce transmission through vaccination - as more people become vaccinated the figures should reduce.

 

This was the general conclusion from Imperial College with one of the scientists saying:

 

Unfortunately the Delta variant is growing quickly and has become the dominant variant in the UK. Our latest models suggest that this variant has the potential to cause a third wave of hospitalisations and deaths, of a magnitude that is still highly uncertain. In all the scenarios that we looked at, delaying the easing of restrictions by a few weeks would reduce the size of the wave and result in fewer deaths.”  

[Paninistickers]

48 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Don't you mean a large part of the population of the circles that you move in are as thick as shit.

Makes me feel superior

[Paninistickers]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

I actually did some digging on this just now:

 

https://data.cdc.gov/stories/s/Vaccine-Hesitancy-for-COVID-19/cnd2-a6zw/

 

Seems like the spots for "strong hesitancy" are Missouri, Kentucky, Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas - not really areas I would associate with high ethnic minority populations.

 

And such "strong hesitancy" as opposed to just "hesitancy" climbs up to 18% in some places, with just "hesitancy" topping out at 25% . That's higher than any demographic in the UK apart from Black British,every other group was 12% or less.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandvaccinehesitancygreatbritain/31marchto25april

 

I'd say hesitancy is higher overall on average in the US, looking at the broad map.

Fair points, though you were hinting at a lack of intellect in both countries should equate to the same result. 

 

  white working class americans have little in common with UK cousins. They are probably far more anti.state than we are..

 

I just think there's a large pool of people here who are neither pro nor anti vaccine, they just cba to find out either way and end up swimming with the flow as the least troublesome option 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Rate of increase seems to be slowing 

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

3 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Would you ever forgive yourself if you did and something were to happen to your child?

 

I don't know if you have kids, but plenty I know refuse to let their child have it, I'd be doing the same if I were them I think.

Would you ever forgive yourself if you didn't and something were to happen to your child? Personally I wouldn't hesitate. People have a right to refuse, but covid won't go away, because of their attitude, which allows others a far greater chance of catching it. Somewhat selfish methinks.

[st albans fox]

6 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Rate of increase seems to be slowing 

yes - i noted yesterday that we seem to be plateauing in the 7k area.   of course govt have more specific data on areas and it could be that those areas suffering with the delta variant are going up whilst most of the country is sinking ever lower. 

 

however, it must be good news - another factor could be that many people catching it are vaccinated and hence not suffering any symptoms so not getting tested. will be interesting to see the ONS numbers end this week (that test their groups irrespective of symptoms and therefore give more 'realistic data') 

[martyn]

24 minutes ago, oxford blue said:

This shows the effect of hospitalisation only. This from The Lancet on effectiveness of vaccines on Delya variant shows AZ vaccine in particular is not as effective

 

Considering the whole population cohort (rather than just hospital cases), the test-negative analysis to estimate vaccine effectiveness in preventing RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection showed that, compared to those unvaccinated, at least 14 days after the second dose, BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine) offered very good protection: 92% (95% CI 90–93) S gene-negative, 79% (75–82) S gene-positive. Protection associated with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine) was, however, substantial but reduced: 73% (95% CI 66–78) 

 

Th majority of population have had the AZ vaccine which in some cases is only 66% effective, averaging  73%. Given the delta variant is 60% more transmissible it does make sense to try to reduce transmission through vaccination - as more people become vaccinated the figures should reduce.

 

This was the general conclusion from Imperial College with one of the scientists saying:

 

Unfortunately the Delta variant is growing quickly and has become the dominant variant in the UK. Our latest models suggest that this variant has the potential to cause a third wave of hospitalisations and deaths, of a magnitude that is still highly uncertain. In all the scenarios that we looked at, delaying the easing of restrictions by a few weeks would reduce the size of the wave and result in fewer deaths.”  

The AZ effectiveness is an interesting one, it does seem to be a "slow burner" in terms of protection ramping up. Given that an increased gap between doses of it supposedly resulted in higher levels of antibodies being produced, I wonder whether that effectiveness may increase if we saw data for more than 2/3 weeks post 2nd dose.

[Leicester_Loyal]

39 minutes ago, oxford blue said:

This shows the effect of hospitalisation only. This from The Lancet on effectiveness of vaccines on Delya variant shows AZ vaccine in particular is not as effective

 

Considering the whole population cohort (rather than just hospital cases), the test-negative analysis to estimate vaccine effectiveness in preventing RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection showed that, compared to those unvaccinated, at least 14 days after the second dose, BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine) offered very good protection: 92% (95% CI 90–93) S gene-negative, 79% (75–82) S gene-positive. Protection associated with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine) was, however, substantial but reduced: 73% (95% CI 66–78) 

 

Th majority of population have had the AZ vaccine which in some cases is only 66% effective, averaging  73%. Given the delta variant is 60% more transmissible it does make sense to try to reduce transmission through vaccination - as more people become vaccinated the figures should reduce.

 

This was the general conclusion from Imperial College with one of the scientists saying:

 

Unfortunately the Delta variant is growing quickly and has become the dominant variant in the UK. Our latest models suggest that this variant has the potential to cause a third wave of hospitalisations and deaths, of a magnitude that is still highly uncertain. In all the scenarios that we looked at, delaying the easing of restrictions by a few weeks would reduce the size of the wave and result in fewer deaths.”  

Honestly I genuinely don't believe 90% of what I read anymore, that's an MP ffs.

 

It's one big giant mess.

 

17 minutes ago, DANGEROUS TIGER said:

Would you ever forgive yourself if you didn't and something were to happen to your child? Personally I wouldn't hesitate. People have a right to refuse, but covid won't go away, because of their attitude, which allows others a far greater chance of catching it. Somewhat selfish methinks.

As said though, more chance of dying from the vaccine than from COVID for a young child.

 

Millions of us have done our bit, even those of us that were 50/50 (or whatever percentage) on the vaccine, now we're being told more must be done, as usual. No wonder people don't give a toss and are acting selfish, I genuinely don't blame them anymore.

 

EDIT: I need to remind myself to stay out of general chat, gets me too worked up sometimes No offence to anyone

Edited 15 June 2021 by Leicester_Loyal

[martyn]

Not sure whether that MP is wilfully misrepresenting what they meant by vaccine effectiveness against Delta, but regardless, the figures showing protection against hospitalisation aren't particularly useful used in isolation. 

 

It's high, especially after 2 doses which obviously is great, but given protection against infection is much reduced against Delta, especially after 1 dose, in theory cases could rise to the extent that you put the health service under pressure again just through sheer weight of exponential case growth as much of the unvaccinated and 1 dosed population is still vulnerable to becoming infected in the first place. I understand why they'd want to collect more data as the parameters have changed with a new variant here. 

 

I'm possibly being naive, but assuming some other variant doesn't come along in the meantime, or there's some other unforeseen issue like sudden vaccine supply issues,  i'd actually be more confident in the break clause being activated after 2 weeks than the 4 week period getting extended. But then i don't subscribe to the view that the Government want to keep us in some perpetual state of lockdown.

Edited 15 June 2021 by martyn

[Wymsey]

In excess of 600,000 Covid-19 deaths in the US..

[Otis]

11 minutes ago, Wymsey said:

In excess of 600,000 Covid-19 deaths in the US..

USA population is around 5 times the UK so the overall rates are similar. 

[Ric Flair]

38 minutes ago, DANGEROUS TIGER said:

Would you ever forgive yourself if you didn't and something were to happen to your child? Personally I wouldn't hesitate. People have a right to refuse, but covid won't go away, because of their attitude, which allows others a far greater chance of catching it. Somewhat selfish methinks.

" allows others a far greater chance of catching it " do you mean the cohort of vulnerable and elderly people that should be as protected as they'll ever likely be given they should now be double vaccinated themselves? So yet again it keeps on pushing downwards on the rest to ensure they all have a vaccination to protect others that should already be protected.

 

Many people who don't need it have had it, myself included and many others will do. The narrative really needs to change, its insulting. Young people have been labelled as selfish and the spreaders of covid throughout the past year and its nothing short of a disgrace and completely untrue as well. 

[David Hankey]

4 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

That's not my job I'm afraid, and even if I did have suggestions I doubt very much that the people in charge of making those decisions would be interested   I can't agree that mandatory vaccination should be enforced though, people have the right to choose. I think those who remain unvaccinated by choice will find themselves facing further restrictions, though, the EU are bringing in a vaccine passport as we speak so folk might find themselves unable to travel. We might also find establishments refusing entry to people without proof of the vaccine, who knows?

With regard to your sentence, let's hope so.