Coronavirus Thread

[Ric Flair]

18 minutes ago, martyn said:

Not sure whether that MP is wilfully misrepresenting what they meant by vaccine effectiveness against Delta, but regardless, the figures showing protection against hospitalisation aren't particularly useful used in isolation. 

 

It's high, especially after 2 doses which obviously is great, but given protection against infection is much reduced against Delta, especially after 1 dose, in theory cases could rise to the extent that you put the health service under pressure again just through sheer weight of exponential case growth as much of the unvaccinated and 1 dosed population is still vulnerable to becoming infected in the first place. I understand why they'd want to collect more data as the parameters have changed with a new variant here. 

 

I'm possibly being naive, but assuming some other variant doesn't come along in the meantime, or some other unforeseen issue like sudden vaccine supply issues,  i'd actually be more confident in the break clause being activated after 2 weeks than the 4 week period getting extended. But then i don't subscribe to the view that the Government want to keep us in some perpetual state of lockdown.

Martyn, forgive me for being thick and obtuse but surely hospitalisation and potentially death is the main thing we are trying to reduce in light of a virus that will never go away so as we try and live with this and return to normality that that's the main parameter and the results there are stark, otherwise its like trying to finger an eel.

[DennisNedry]

Had the Pfizer on Friday, no side effects other than an achey arm for 24-36 hours.

 

Cases seem to be levelling off around the 7k-8k a day region, let's hope so!

 

Really not sure about vaccinating children. It's a real ethical debate. You are almost categorically going to harm more children through vaccine side effects than you are going to prevent as we all know COVID very rarely affects kids. You will protect the social contacts of kids, and reduce educational disruption. But is that enough to justify it? I really don't know.

 

As a 20something, I know of 3 couples my age who are now having to postpone their weddings again. It ****ing sucks. They're having to put their lives on hold. The 'what's the harm in delaying 4 more weeks?' comments are at best thoughtless and at worst frankly insulting.

Edited 15 June 2021 by DennisNedry

[bovril]

USA seems to have hit a bit of a wall with vaccine coverage, as I suspect a lot of countries with higher hesitancy will. Will be interesting when delta takes off there. 

[Dunge]

I wonder whether the Delta variant is causing a different sort of disease.

 

It’s worth noting that there are now two separate sets of number being bandied about. The original numbers were about symptomatic disease, where I think the quoted number was AZ being only 33% effective after one dose (stronger after two). Now we’re seeing numbers on hospitalisations - a subset of symptomatic disease which is severe disease. The above numbers for that look very encouraging.

 

There are also notes that people are reporting different symptoms: More along the lines of headaches or head colds rather than coughs. I remember last year when the vaccines were being developed, there was discussion on what they might prevent - whether it was “just” lower respiratory tract infections or whether they protected against the whole. Whereas protecting against all was ideal, I recall the discussion being that protecting against lower was vital - that’s where Covid was causing most damage to the lungs and setting off overzealous immune responses. Maybe this is the virus getting around a weaker upper respiratory tract protection offered by AZ in particular, but lower still remaining strong. Also, maybe the Delta variant mutation is one that would target the upper more anyway. Maybe this is a step on the way to Covid eventually (very slowly) turning into a cold virus.

 

I’m still persuaded to keep moderate restrictions for 2-4 weeks to make sure of the numbers but I think the argument for keeping them is definitely weakening.

[Chrysalis]

On 14/06/2021 at 08:59, StanSP said:

And now they've (media) called it 'one last heave to freedom' . 

 

Meaningless. 

Are we all locked up in our homes or something, what have I missed, how did I go on holiday last week if I had no freedom?

[Chrysalis]

On 14/06/2021 at 18:39, StanSP said:

I do wonder how it can be such a bad situation to delay for 4 weeks from now with the data, but just a few more vaccines in a short space of time can now solve the issue before/by July 19th?

Yet they're talking about cases and hospitalisations going up anyway, despite vaccine successes so far up to now bringing those down?

They still going up because we havent vaccinated enough people, for some reason a lot of people think only the vulnerable were going to hospital with covid when that was never the case which is why I always said only vaccinating the vulnerable was never a viable plan.

 

To be blunt we havent vaccinated enough people yet, and on top of that boosters will be needed probably for life now.

 

I seen a graph that was posted comparing the start of this wave to the previous wave, the cases is similar projectory, but the hospitalisations are slower albeit still rising.  This is down to the vaccine.

 

The two governance problems here are we didnt red list India, so now we have a new wave, and setting a date to remove "all" restrictions.  Both very silly.

 

Our relaxation is probably 2-3 months ahead of where it should have been, but too much tory MP's and "freedom" type people put pressure to rush it "again".

Edited 15 June 2021 by Chrysalis

[KFS]

1 hour ago, bovril said:

USA seems to have hit a bit of a wall with vaccine coverage, as I suspect a lot of countries with higher hesitancy will. Will be interesting when delta takes off there. 

Genuinely no one here (US) is talking about variants. 

[Paninistickers]

46 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

Are we all locked up in our homes or something, what have I missed, how did I go on holiday last week if I had no freedom?

OK smart arse.

 

Freedom isn't going to places where you are told to, or allowed to, go.

 

It's going wherever, and whenever, you like..With whoever you like. With how many you like. And doing and wearing whatever you like. 

 

Still, takes all.sorts. 

[Buce]

Compulsary vaccination for care workers to go ahead, NHS staff 'under consideration'.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/15/covid-jabs-to-become-mandatory-for-care-home-staff-in-england

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, Paninistickers said:

OK smart arse.

 

Freedom isn't going to places where you are told to, or allowed to, go.

 

It's going wherever, and whenever, you like..With whoever you like. With how many you like. And doing and wearing whatever you like. 

 

Still, takes all.sorts. 

Are there any countries in the world where that’s currently an option ? 

[Legend_in_blue]

An excellent article pulling Whitty's data selection nonsense to pieces from yesterday afternoon... A Doctor Writes: Chris Whitty's Slide Show Yesterday Was a Blatant Exercise in Biased Data Selection

 

Just a snippet (the art of deception, poorly executed)...

 

Professor Whitty did show a slide illustrating the percentage change in the age profile of patients admitted to hospital. Here it is in Graph Four. It shows the effectiveness of the vaccine in keeping older people out of hospital. But it implies that there are larger numbers of younger people being admitted instead.

But when we look at the absolute numbers, we see the data presented in Graph Five. It shows the overall absolute numbers admitted now as a tiny fraction of those in January. Another classic statistical trick.

[SpacedX]

2 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

An excellent article pulling Whitty's data selection nonsense to pieces from yesterday afternoon... A Doctor Writes: Chris Whitty's Slide Show Yesterday Was a Blatant Exercise in Biased Data Selection

 

Just a snippet (the art of deception, poorly executed)...

 

Professor Whitty did show a slide illustrating the percentage change in the age profile of patients admitted to hospital. Here it is in Graph Four. It shows the effectiveness of the vaccine in keeping older people out of hospital. But it implies that there are larger numbers of younger people being admitted instead.

But when we look at the absolute numbers, we see the data presented in Graph Five. It shows the overall absolute numbers admitted now as a tiny fraction of those in January. Another classic statistical trick.

https://fullfact.org/health/can-we-believe-lockdown-sceptics/

[Tuna]

 

[Dunge]

2 minutes ago, Tuna said:

 

Polonavirus

[Legend_in_blue]

22 minutes ago, Line-X said:

https://fullfact.org/health/can-we-believe-lockdown-sceptics/

There you go again, dragging up the past but dismissive of the fact that the data presented yesterday was manipulated.

[Corky]

At least 328% more transmissible.

 

Have we got a trade deal in the offing?

[martyn]

5 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

Martyn, forgive me for being thick and obtuse but surely hospitalisation and potentially death is the main thing we are trying to reduce in light of a virus that will never go away so as we try and live with this and return to normality that that's the main parameter and the results there are stark, otherwise its like trying to finger an eel.

Absolutely. Numbers being admitted to hospital is, and has always been the key metric. 

 

I wasn't underplaying that, rather that the effectiveness of the vaccines against hospitalisation, as pleasingly high as they are, cannot be used in isolation in modelling outcomes. It has to be allied with the efficacy of the vaccines against infection, the vaccine status of the population at any given time, which then hopefully allows decent modelling to project case numbers (and then subsequently hospitalisations and deaths).

 

The problem as regards the 21st June, is that Delta variant rocked up at an inopportune time, meaning there hasn't really been an opportunity to get enough quality data, especially as we started from a low base of cases, and where it has only become the dominant variant in the last couple of weeks. With that in mind, what has likely spooked the boffins is that a more transmissible variant, where single dose protection against infection is significantly reduced,  means that we still have a decent proportion of the population vulnerable to infection that could in theory result in an explosion of cases, such that even with great protection against hospitalisation, the absolute numbers of cases get so high that unsustainable numbers of hospital admissions follow.

 

I doubt that will end up being the case (indeed, the PHE data on protection against hospitalisation may possibly have had an impact on the recent decision making, had it been available earlier, and there are already signs that the rate of increase in cases might be slowing), but i completely understand why there has been a pause to the re-opening roadmap to get that higher quality data, and also get millions more people the massive extra protection against infection that a 2nd dose gives against Delta, where that wasn't so critical against the previous dominant variant. Not to mention most of our vaccines administered are AZ, where a 2nd dose also boosts protection against hospitalisation significantly too.

 

I also completely understand why people are at their wits end with this, but the rules of the game changed a bit with the Delta variant arriving. My own view on this is to exercise caution for now until we've got maximum vaccine uptake possible, then there needs to be a serious debate about how we deal with setbacks in the future (e.g. do we perpetually lockdown, or find a way to "live with the virus", whatever that means in reality).

 

 

Edited 15 June 2021 by martyn

[Costock_Fox]

27 minutes ago, Tuna said:

 

Mutated to sneeze pure Novichok.

[Leicester_Loyal]

NY and California opening back up.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/d03500ae-0baf-4035-bbae-c55f59337fe5

'New York took its decision on the same day that California, another centre of Covid devastation, also lifted most restrictions. Both states did so after the proportion of adults who have had at least one dose of a vaccine passed the 70 per cent mark recommended by public health authorities as a threshold for rolling back prevention measures. As a result, masks and social distancing restrictions that have governed daily life in two of the most populous US states for more than a year will no longer be mandated at restaurants, cinemas, shops, sporting events, workplaces and other venues. Or, as Cuomo said: “We can now return to life as we know it.” Masks will still be required on public transit since that is governed by federal rules.'

[peach0000]

39 minutes ago, Tuna said:

 

The govt should be putting Russia on the red list tonight pending investigation (downgrading back to amber if it’s a false alarm). What will happen is nothing and they will wait to see if it’s dangerous before announcing it will go on the red list in a weeks time and allowing people to come in without proper isolation and letting the new variant take hold. It’s so obvious but yet the people in charge can’t see it! 

[Chrysalis]

2 hours ago, Paninistickers said:

OK smart arse.

 

Freedom isn't going to places where you are told to, or allowed to, go.

 

It's going wherever, and whenever, you like..With whoever you like. With how many you like. And doing and wearing whatever you like. 

 

Still, takes all.sorts. 

We have never had that level of freedom, there is laws in the country.

[Chrysalis]

37 minutes ago, martyn said:

Absolutely. Numbers being admitted to hospital is, and has always been the key metric. 

 

I wasn't underplaying that, rather that the effectiveness of the vaccines against hospitalisation, as pleasingly high as they are, cannot be used in isolation in modelling outcomes. It has to be allied with the efficacy of the vaccines against infection, the vaccine status of the population at any given time, which then hopefully allows decent modelling to project case numbers (and then subsequently hospitalisations and deaths).

 

The problem as regards the 21st June, is that Delta variant rocked up at an inopportune time, meaning there hasn't really been an opportunity to get enough quality data, especially as we started from a low base of cases, and where it has only become the dominant variant in the last couple of weeks. With that in mind, what has likely spooked the boffins is that a more transmissible variant, where single dose protection against infection is significantly reduced,  means that we still have a decent proportion of the population vulnerable to infection that could in theory result in an explosion of cases, such that even with great protection against hospitalisation, the absolute numbers of cases get so high that unsustainable numbers of hospital admissions follow.

 

I doubt that will end up being the case (indeed, the PHE data on protection against hospitalisation may possibly have had an impact on the recent decision making, had it been available earlier, and there are already signs that the rate of increase in cases might be slowing), but i completely understand why there has been a pause to the re-opening roadmap to get that higher quality data, and also get millions more people the massive extra protection against infection that a 2nd dose gives against Delta, where that wasn't so critical against the previous dominant variant. Not to mention most of our vaccines administered are AZ, where a 2nd dose also boosts protection against hospitalisation significantly too.

 

I also completely understand why people are at their wits end with this, but the rules of the game changed a bit with the Delta variant arriving. My own view on this is to exercise caution for now until we've got maximum vaccine uptake possible, then there needs to be a serious debate about how we deal with setbacks in the future (e.g. do we perpetually lockdown, or find a way to "live with the virus", whatever that means in reality).

 

 

 

A very good grounded post.

 

I feel a compromise is ultimately going to be needed when it comes to "learning to live with covid" some people see that as treating it like the flu, meaning anyone that dies is collateral, and the NHS suffering is something we just accept, or it could also mean learning to live with certain restrictions and changes to our lifestyles.  If its the former expect life expectancies to nosedive as that will have its effect with people not been able to access healthcare, extended delays for treatment etc.

 

What I dont understand is we had successful trials with the FA cup final and a nightclub event where people were vetted to attend the events, but we seemed to not have planned anything based on these test events.  I would have no problems with e.g. open nightclubs that require either vaccine passport or recent negative test, same with weddings and other hospitality events.  I do feel hospitality could be opened up with the these caveats in place. I think that alongside wearing masks and basic distancing in unvetted public indoor areas is a way forward and has minimal affect on lives vs the early lockdowns and the local lockdowns where we werent even allowed to visit family.

[leicsmac]

8 hours ago, Paninistickers said:

Fair points, though you were hinting at a lack of intellect in both countries should equate to the same result. 

 

  white working class americans have little in common with UK cousins. They are probably far more anti.state than we are..

 

I just think there's a large pool of people here who are neither pro nor anti vaccine, they just cba to find out either way and end up swimming with the flow as the least troublesome option 

Nah, I was pointing out the very different results and was positing that therefore the difference wasn't entirely to do with knowledge levels.

 

I'd agree with the last sentence here.

[NasPb]

4 hours ago, Chrysalis said:

We have never had that level of freedom, there is laws in the country.

Yes exactly 😂 i don't think people remember life before lockdown. 

[st albans fox]

8 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

An excellent article pulling Whitty's data selection nonsense to pieces from yesterday afternoon... A Doctor Writes: Chris Whitty's Slide Show Yesterday Was a Blatant Exercise in Biased Data Selection

 

Just a snippet (the art of deception, poorly executed)...

 

Professor Whitty did show a slide illustrating the percentage change in the age profile of patients admitted to hospital. Here it is in Graph Four. It shows the effectiveness of the vaccine in keeping older people out of hospital. But it implies that there are larger numbers of younger people being admitted instead.

But when we look at the absolute numbers, we see the data presented in Graph Five. It shows the overall absolute numbers admitted now as a tiny fraction of those in January. Another classic statistical trick.

Isn’t it just an illustration of the protection afforded by the vaccines? 
 

of course the numbers now are massively lower than the last peak and it’s not mean to be a current comparison.  the point being that many think it’s only old people who end up in hospital. If you remove all restrictions then there is a large risk of large numbers of daily cases which will lead to a number of hospitalisations- no one knows how many so they’ve chosen to be cautious. 
 

there is plenty of stuff that we aren’t told aswell

 

the idea that they have chosen to keep parts of the economy closed as some kind of power trip is just ludicrous. if you believe stuff like that then you need to be worrying about yourself and not covid or restrictions.