Coronavirus Thread

[Facecloth]

 

[st albans fox]

Looking forwards to tomorrow’s case data

 

i can’t be the only one who has noticed them stall in the 7k area for a few days …..

 

 

[Col city fan]

[Leicester_Loyal]

 

Obviously just a bloke on Twitter but he's pulling apart the modelling that's apparently been used.

 

I see a few who were previously for the lockdown have joined us on the anti-lockdown side! Just shows that more and more people are turning.**

 

**Obviously everyone is entitled to an opinion and fair enough, I respect it.

[PAULCFC]

I was all for the previous lockdowns,but this is getting silly now.I was going to take my two sons(7 and 10) to the test on Saturday but couldn't because they are under 16....but they can go and watch the county whenever they want,i think people including me have had enough of the mixed messages.

[Legend_in_blue]

Difficult to see past this point of view at the moment.  We're going round in circles with no end in sight.  

 

I’ve just looked at today’s application of a couple of the government’s tests:

 

Test three: Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospital admissions, which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS. (https://youtu.be/uXDgVjXbcFA?t=1190)

The infection rates Whitty presented were, quite obviously, incapable of leading to a “surge in hospital admissions”, and, in fact, he seemed to acknowledge this. However, he segued onto projections of future rates that would (according to him) be at risk of causing such a surge. Hence, effectively, Test 3 can always be defeated by rolling out a Neil Ferguson model, irrespectively of what the (highly dubious) statistics actually show.

Test four: Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern. (https://youtu.be/uXDgVjXbcFA?t=1360)

This appeared to be Whitty’s real trump card. Simply, he pointed out that an assessment ignoring cases of the current, leading, variant (at the moment, Indian / Delta) would be fundamentally different from the assessment that takes account of them. The leading variant is in the ascendant, while the older variants decline – Bingo!

By picking their times to “update” us, SAGE and the government can contrive to fail at least one of these test, continually and indefinitely.

 

Edited 14 June 2021 by Legend_in_blue

[Zear0]

21 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

 

Obviously just a bloke on Twitter but he's pulling apart the modelling that's apparently been used.

 

I see a few who were previously for the lockdown have joined us on the anti-lockdown side! Just shows that more and more people are turning.**

 

**Obviously everyone is entitled to an opinion and fair enough, I respect it.

I always find reading papers is more effective than laughing at out of context figures. 

 

23. As mentioned in paragraph 7, whilst information is accruing about the transmission

advantage of the delta variant, a wide range of estimates remain plausible. There is also

very little data available so far on the protection given by vaccines against hospital

admission and death with the delta variant. SPI-M-O has previously modelled the

emergence of and possible impacts of variants with different properties, showing the

sensitivity of results to the assumptions used9

.

24. Figure 6 demonstrates the sensitivity to each of these factors. The three different plots

show admissions in the Warwick model with vaccine effectiveness assumptions that are

central (top; 90-91% against admission after two doses), optimistic (bottom left, 95%) or

cautious (bottom right, 86%). Within each plot, different colours represent a different

assumption about the transmission advantage of delta, ranging from 20% lower (blue) to

40% higher (yellow) compared to the central scenario (red), where the central assumption

is that delta has a 56% transmission advantage over alpha.

25. This shows that, while there is a significant resurgence in admissions in all scenarios, the

scale of that resurgence is highly uncertain and ranges from considerably smaller

than January 2021 to considerably higher. The difference between the optimistic and

cautious effectiveness assumptions leads to a factor of three difference in the peak height;

between 20% additional and 20% less transmission advantage leads to a factor of five

difference.

26. As results are so sensitive to these assumptions, SPI-M-O cannot determine with

confidence whether taking Step 4 of the Roadmap on 21st June would result in a

peak that might put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.

 

The report author was even kind enough to put the final paragraph in bold which I've replicated. Noting the reports conclusion, Professor Paton is being a bit naughty there presenting a sensitivity study as a front line argument. Bet he's buzzing at the amount of likes though. 

 

Just to clarify, I'm actually not in favour of this delay, but the deliberate misinterpretation of data and pseudo-science floating around here can't be left unchallenged incase people believe this tripe. Always happy (lie) to be proven wrong and be engaged in the discussion though! 

Edited 14 June 2021 by Zear0
Added note at end

[Nod.E]

What percentage of people aged 50+ haven't had both jabs?

 

Isn't it around 25%?

 

Regardless, those that haven't had it have made their choice. Should those turning down vaccines be the reason for hard working businesses to suffer? For the millions of young people who have gone and got their vaccines in record numbers to not resume their lives?

 

Eating unhealthily and not exercising is a choice just as not taking a vaccine is. You put yourself at risk, become overweight and you only have yourself to blame when it leads to illness.

 

Anyway, we're talking about a smaller number of susceptible people. Increasing cases isn't the same problem it once was in terms of the pressure applied to the NHS.

 

What happened to the concept of herd immunity? How did we ever expect to achieve it if variants are still a problem with most people vaccinated?

[yorkie1999]

1 hour ago, Zear0 said:

Nice chart, noting that, should we keep contributing to the destruction of our environment and take no action on climate change noting the most significant consequence of these actions won't be witnessed in the near-term?  Can't draw any parallels to today's discussion there .

It doesn’t say that does it.

[Kasey Keller]

Taking the fvcking pi$$ now…my mental health is shot to sh!t

[ian__marshall]

3 hours ago, Soup said:

I'll make a prediction now. The vaccines won't end this, vaccine passport's will. 

Completely agree.  

[WigstonWanderer]

4 hours ago, Babylon said:

**** me... nearly a year and a half in a people still think it's the flu. 

Mate, the pitchforks and torches are coming through, best stay off the road.

[dsr-burnley]

4 hours ago, doverfox said:

The current death rate is just over 2% of all infections. Yes we are better placed with our uptake of vaccinations now but with 7000 new cases today that is potentialy 140 deaths the numbers have shown the vaccinated are less likely to become infected  and also better placed to fight the infection should they become infected. But surely making sure the link is truely broken between the number of infections and the demand on the NHS is no bad thing, what are we missing out on in the next 30 days which would make throwing caution to the wind worth while? 

I don't know where that figure is from, but it's wrong. The current death rate is less than 10 per day, and has been for a couple of months. The number of confirmed cases has not been below 2,000 per day this year, and 10 is 0.5% of that.

[StanSP]

 

 

 

[Babylon]

9 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

 

Obviously just a bloke on Twitter but he's pulling apart the modelling that's apparently been used.

 

I see a few who were previously for the lockdown have joined us on the anti-lockdown side! Just shows that more and more people are turning.**

 

**Obviously everyone is entitled to an opinion and fair enough, I respect it.

 

There are loads doing their own modelling of things.

 

The general gist seems to be the data is all over the place that we have and it's almost impossible to predict with any certainty. Hence the wild swings in estimates and hence them having to not open up fully, as it's hard to know what's going to happen. Delay lets the data settle down and lets more get vaccinated, it's just common sense. 

 

 

 

[David Hankey]

12 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

 

What would you suggest happens, people are picked up off the streets and jabbed against their will? 

What would you suggest to stop the spread of this deadly virus?

[Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot]

What is vaccine shedding? How to I convince an anti vaxxer I'm close to, concisely, it isn't worrisome, as nice as 'for f sake just...' would be I have to be more tactful than that. I honestly know little to nothing about vaccines because I'm of the opinion people a damn sight cleverer than me do know and say its okay. So what do I say? 

[VLC86]

2 minutes ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

What is vaccine shedding? How to I convince an anti vaxxer I'm close to, concisely, it isn't worrisome, as nice as 'for f sake just...' would be I have to be more tactful than that. I honestly know little to nothing about vaccines because I'm of the opinion people a damn sight cleverer than me do know and say its okay. So what do I say? 

Google suggests it’s where a vaccinated person gives off the virus that they have been vaccinated against. 

Just call them a nob and move on.

[Samilktray]

Had the vaccine Sunday, no side effects felt absolutely fine since. Every time I sit down to eat the knife and fork stick to me which is a bit weird but could be coincidence 

[Otis]

10 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

 

Obviously just a bloke on Twitter but he's pulling apart the modelling that's apparently been used.

 

I see a few who were previously for the lockdown have joined us on the anti-lockdown side! Just shows that more and more people are turning.**

 

**Obviously everyone is entitled to an opinion and fair enough, I respect it.

 

1 hour ago, Babylon said:

 

There are loads doing their own modelling of things.

 

The general gist seems to be the data is all over the place that we have and it's almost impossible to predict with any certainty. Hence the wild swings in estimates and hence them having to not open up fully, as it's hard to know what's going to happen. Delay lets the data settle down and lets more get vaccinated, it's just common sense. 

 

 

 

The peak cases figure in January (winter) when virtually no one had the vaccine was 60,000 per day. 

How the hell are they predicting 250k a day in the summer when 60% are fully vaccinated?

Are they making the numbers up.

[Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo]

17 minutes ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

What is vaccine shedding? How to I convince an anti vaxxer I'm close to, concisely, it isn't worrisome, as nice as 'for f sake just...' would be I have to be more tactful than that. I honestly know little to nothing about vaccines because I'm of the opinion people a damn sight cleverer than me do know and say its okay. So what do I say? 

 

I doubt you will, anti vaxxers are basically a different breed, and almost all of them subscribe to the idea that the opposite view to anything logical is (in their minds) correct

 

The earth is obviously spherical (or near enough). "The earth is flat"

5G is safe. "5G gives all your data to the Chinese government and then cooks all your insides and then all your inheritance ends up in China"

Coronavirus is a worldwide problem. "Covid-19 is a scam dreamt up by the 'REAL' leaders of the world to keep everyone acting like sheep for no reason whatsoever"

Vaccines are safe. "Vaccines are proven to give you autism. Look at this bullshit homemade website I found that states such a fact, and I know people on Facebook that agree so I'm right"

Can you provide sources for this information? "No. Why?"

 

This kind of person will never in a million years accept when they are wrong, they'll happily cut people out of their lives to save face as well. There may be some who are just genuinely concerned and aren't cliched conspiracy theorists, but the ones I've met are all cut from the same cloth.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

3 minutes ago, Otis said:

 

The peak cases figure in January (winter) when virtually no one had the vaccine was 60,000 per day. 

How the hell are they predicting 250k a day in the summer when 60% are fully vaccinated?

Are they making the numbers up.

A bit lower down that thread one of the models has cases topping out at almost 350K a day  

 

It's like they're just trying to get one up on each other who can predict it being worse. 

[reporterpenguin]

12 hours ago, Harrydc said:

20,000 people a year die from the flu. In 2018 we had some of the worst flu cases in history. 

 

We didn't lock down. We didn't ruin our economy and we didn't count every single case as if it was the worst thing in the world.  

 

Now, flu is practically non existant. Wonder why that is... 

As has been said numerous times before, this is not remotely comparable. Yes 20,000 people a year die from flu, when we’re living our normal lives with no restrictions. Well over 100,000 people died from Covid-19 last year, with enormous and unprecedented restrictions placed on all our lives. Unsurprisingly with the country under these restrictions, flu deaths were a fraction of what they usually are last years flu season. The two are not comparable. 

 

As for why flu is practically non existent now, I’m curious as to why you believe this has happened? It makes sense to me that the restrictions have dramatically reduced how the flu virus spreads, does it not?

 

It’s clear how hard you’ve found this horrendous time Harry, I really feel for you, but please try and help yourself by critically evaluating everything you hear and read. Not just the parts you disagree with while accepting things that reinforce your existing beliefs without second thought.

[Babylon]

23 minutes ago, Otis said:

 

The peak cases figure in January (winter) when virtually no one had the vaccine was 60,000 per day. 

How the hell are they predicting 250k a day in the summer when 60% are fully vaccinated?

Are they making the numbers up.

As @Zear0 said, read the report not just out of context graphs. 

Edited 15 June 2021 by Babylon

[Otis]

12 minutes ago, Babylon said:

As @Zear0 said, read the report not just out of context graphs. 

Hi Babylon. The graphs are what was modelled. 

Why don't you give me a brief outline of what the report says.