Coronavirus Thread

[Blarmy]

8 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

An excellent article pulling Whitty's data selection nonsense to pieces from yesterday afternoon... A Doctor Writes: Chris Whitty's Slide Show Yesterday Was a Blatant Exercise in Biased Data Selection

 

Just a snippet (the art of deception, poorly executed)...

 

Professor Whitty did show a slide illustrating the percentage change in the age profile of patients admitted to hospital. Here it is in Graph Four. It shows the effectiveness of the vaccine in keeping older people out of hospital. But it implies that there are larger numbers of younger people being admitted instead.

But when we look at the absolute numbers, we see the data presented in Graph Five. It shows the overall absolute numbers admitted now as a tiny fraction of those in January. Another classic statistical trick.

For me, that first graph doesn’t imply anything of the sort, and I don’t think it would for anyone with a basic grasp of percentages.

[WigstonWanderer]

9 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

An excellent article pulling Whitty's data selection nonsense to pieces from yesterday afternoon... A Doctor Writes: Chris Whitty's Slide Show Yesterday Was a Blatant Exercise in Biased Data Selection

 

Just a snippet (the art of deception, poorly executed)...

 

Professor Whitty did show a slide illustrating the percentage change in the age profile of patients admitted to hospital. Here it is in Graph Four. It shows the effectiveness of the vaccine in keeping older people out of hospital. But it implies that there are larger numbers of younger people being admitted instead.

But when we look at the absolute numbers, we see the data presented in Graph Five. It shows the overall absolute numbers admitted now as a tiny fraction of those in January. Another classic statistical trick.

I think you’ve got your head stuck down that rabbit hole mate

Edited 16 June 2021 by WigstonWanderer

[Babylon]

9 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Are there any countries in the world where that’s currently an option ? 

Try walking down the street naked or in a shopping centre without a shirt on, the illusion of freedom to wear what you want and go where you want is just that. 

[Babylon]

9 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

An excellent article pulling Whitty's data selection nonsense to pieces from yesterday afternoon... A Doctor Writes: Chris Whitty's Slide Show Yesterday Was a Blatant Exercise in Biased Data Selection

 

Just a snippet (the art of deception, poorly executed)...

 

Professor Whitty did show a slide illustrating the percentage change in the age profile of patients admitted to hospital. Here it is in Graph Four. It shows the effectiveness of the vaccine in keeping older people out of hospital. But it implies that there are larger numbers of younger people being admitted instead.

But when we look at the absolute numbers, we see the data presented in Graph Five. It shows the overall absolute numbers admitted now as a tiny fraction of those in January. Another classic statistical trick.

If you can read a simple legend on a graph is doesn't imply anything of the sort. 

 

In terms of absolute numbers everyone knows there isn't a massive issue with deaths and hospitalisations at this exact the moment. The figures are released constantly, the issue is about what happens going forward. 

 

I mean, really this is just another more complex way of moaning about there just being 3 deaths a day at the minute, and we shouldn't not open up based on 3 deaths. When it's got feck all to do with the current death rate. 

 

You can't moan about sodding deception and then post something from someone that's just trying to actually deceive you. 

[Col city fan]

10 hours ago, Buce said:

Compulsary vaccination for care workers to go ahead, NHS staff 'under consideration'.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/15/covid-jabs-to-become-mandatory-for-care-home-staff-in-england

Wonder what the human rights bods will make of that one? The lawyers could have a field day 

[Col city fan]

22 minutes ago, Babylon said:

If you can read a simple legend on a graph is doesn't imply anything of the sort. 

 

In terms of absolute numbers everyone knows there isn't a massive issue with deaths and hospitalisations at this exact the moment. The figures are released constantly, the issue is about what happens going forward. 

 

I mean, really this is just another more complex way of moaning about there just being 3 deaths a day at the minute, and we shouldn't not open up based on 3 deaths. When it's got feck all to do with the current death rate. 

 

You can't moan about sodding deception and then post something from someone that's just trying to actually deceive you. 

Educate me...

Isn’t ‘8 Covid related deaths’ in a 24 hour period (or whatever the figure is) exactly that?

And can’t that be directly compared to the numbers of cancer related deaths in a 24 hour period, or dementia related deaths in a 24 hour period etc etc?

I’m never sure of the point you are making here? Genuine question

Or are you saying it’s ‘8 today’ but could be much more at some point in the future if we relax restrictions further?

[SpacedX]

9 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

There you go again, dragging up the past but dismissive of the fact that the data presented yesterday was manipulated.

You posted it. It's Toby Young again - and his cherry picked confirmation bias for God's sake. Katy Hopkins with a champagne glass. 

 

Dragging up the past? Bit rich coming from someone that is still bringing up Neil Ferguson on a thrice weekly basis. Speaking of the past, this'll be the same Toby Young that told the general public that having had a common cold could give people immunity from Covid-19 and together with Yeadon, that London had reached herd immunity last November. Oddly you refuse to comment now. Perhaps you need me to dredge up your posts to remind you. What else? - that "history will take a very dim view of all the doctors and nurses now lying about their hospitals breaking under the weight of the “second” “wave”.

 

I'd remind you of the tweets from 2020 as well - but oddly, he's deleted them all. Science has no such recourse, it's a shame that the revisionary world of social media ad so called "alt-news"  that you and several others on here regard as objective sources and "thinking out of the box" teaches you little more than the same art of denial. 

Edited 16 June 2021 by Line-X

[Buce]

18 minutes ago, Col city fan said:

Wonder what the human rights bods will make of that one? The lawyers could have a field day 

 

Social care is so understaffed already that this can't possibly be the way forward.

[Babylon]

5 minutes ago, Col city fan said:

Educate me...

Isn’t ‘8 Covid related deaths’ in a 24 hour period (or whatever the figure is) exactly that?

And can’t that be directly compared to the numbers of cancer related deaths in a 24 hour period, or dementia related deaths in a 24 hour period etc etc?

I’m never sure of the point you are making here? Genuine question

Or are you saying it’s ‘8 today’ but could be much more at some point in the future if we relax restrictions further?

Remember when there were 0 Covid deaths and then there were 1000+ daily. As it spread the numbers went up. 
 

You don’t wait until you get to 1000 deaths before you take action. 
 

The delay is to get more data as there is only a small amount available re delta, it’s transmission rate, how good the vaccines are against it etc.

 

Not opening up is to make sure a) we have enough data to make a better educated guess on what’s going to happen and  b) to get more people vaccinated.

 

They need to be satisfied 8 isn’t going to turn into 1000, or 2000 a day.

 

Cancer and dementia levels will stay relatively level. Covid levels might not, so it’s pointless comparing 8 deaths to 500 right now. With a bit more data they’ll get a better grip on what’s potentially going to happen and then that’s when they’ll take into account other deaths, economy, jobs etc. 

 

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

Shambles if true, businesses spent thousands on these screens. 

[everton carr]

10 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Are there any countries in the world where that’s currently an option ? 

Yep Sweden and most States  in Amercia Texas and Florida been back to normal since september

[Sol thewall Bamba]

3 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Shambles if true, businesses spent thousands on these screens. 

 

[leicsmac]

7 minutes ago, everton carr said:

Yep Sweden and most States  in Amercia Texas and Florida been back to normal since september

A winter body count vastly above the average for those states mentioned is an interesting definition of "normal".

[Soup]

8 minutes ago, everton carr said:

Yep Sweden and most States  in Amercia Texas and Florida been back to normal since September

Not actually true regarding Sweden. Although I'm a fan of what they did last winter, it's not been a free for all. 

 

They still had some restrictions but nowhere near the prison we had. Average deaths as well and not the bloodbath predicted by some

[Col city fan]

20 minutes ago, Babylon said:

Remember when there were 0 Covid deaths and then there were 1000+ daily. As it spread the numbers went up. 
 

You don’t wait until you get to 1000 deaths before you take action. 
 

The delay is to get more data as there is only a small amount available re delta, it’s transmission rate, how good the vaccines are against it etc.

 

Not opening up is to make sure a) we have enough data to make a better educated guess on what’s going to happen and  b) to get more people vaccinated.

 

They need to be satisfied 8 isn’t going to turn into 1000, or 2000 a day.

 

Cancer and dementia levels will stay relatively level. Covid levels might not, so it’s pointless comparing 8 deaths to 500 right now. With a bit more data they’ll get a better grip on what’s potentially going to happen and then that’s when they’ll take into account other deaths, economy, jobs etc. 

 

 

That makes sense Babs other than the bit about cancer related deaths, dementias etc ‘staying stable’

Due to the major focus over the past year or so being on Covid 19, (wards closing, staff redistributed, lots of working from home etc) I believe the numbers of ‘all other deaths’ has increased, and in some cases significantly.

If the NHS continues to place so much emphasis on ‘staying Covid safe’ (I’ve seen it only this week... clinics for instance at the LGH being hugely reduced in terms of patient numbers), then these deaths associated with untreated physical illness will only increase surely?

There has to be some sort of middle ground??

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

Freedom is getting back to exactly where we were pre March last year, that’ll be normal, that’s where we all want to get to don’t we?

Everyone has opinions, everyone is different, some have been affected more than others over the past 15 months, trying to understand other peoples stance on the pandemic will always be difficult as everyone’s thoughts are valid and reflect their individual needs.

I think we have all got a little selfishness in us.

Im in my 50’s, flow test twice weekly, temperature check daily, and have reluctantly had both jabs as I saw it as the way back to normality (meaning as things were before) I’m a natural pessimist and have struggled along, worked on my own through the first lockdown and after my marriage break up came home to an empty house although I kept on seeing my 2 adult children.

We are all different, people have different needs, what one person sees as correct others won’t, all down to individual circumstances.

Im rambling now, I’ll finish off with that I want this to stop, July 19th has to be the end.

[yorkie1999]

55 minutes ago, Babylon said:

Remember when there were 0 Covid deaths and then there were 1000+ daily. As it spread the numbers went up. 
 

You don’t wait until you get to 1000 deaths before you take action. 
 

The delay is to get more data as there is only a small amount available re delta, it’s transmission rate, how good the vaccines are against it etc.

 

Not opening up is to make sure a) we have enough data to make a better educated guess on what’s going to happen and  b) to get more people vaccinated.

 

They need to be satisfied 8 isn’t going to turn into 1000, or 2000 a day.

 

Cancer and dementia levels will stay relatively level. Covid levels might not, so it’s pointless comparing 8 deaths to 500 right now. With a bit more data they’ll get a better grip on what’s potentially going to happen and then that’s when they’ll take into account other deaths, economy, jobs etc. 

 

 

Why would the government want more data on the delta variant when there own website clearly states that pfizer is 96% effective and AZ is 92% effective against the Delta variant. Surely in order to announce those figures they must have gathered the data in the first place. Now, they either don't trust their own data, in which case, they never will be able to be driven by data, or they're just taking the piss.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

[Countryfox]

He's now found a new favourite so I think it's time for a new hat for Babs ...   

        Old hat ..

      New hat ...  

Edited 16 June 2021 by Countryfox

[AllGoneTitsSchlupp]

49 minutes ago, Soup said:

Not actually true regarding Sweden. Although I'm a fan of what they did last winter, it's not been a free for all. 

 

They still had some restrictions but nowhere near the prison we had. Average deaths as well and not the bloodbath predicted by some

i was in a nightclub in stockholm in september, that was fun and very 2019

 

also on sweden, there were no masks etc in supermarkets, or anywhere else. what i was told was that if you had covid you wore a mask, if you didn't have it, you didn't 

[st albans fox]

2 hours ago, everton carr said:

Yep Sweden and most States  in Amercia Texas and Florida been back to normal since september

So you can fly wherever you want to and come back into the country and just do what you want ???

[Babylon]

1 hour ago, yorkie1999 said:

Why would the government want more data on the delta variant when there own website clearly states that pfizer is 96% effective and AZ is 92% effective against the Delta variant. Surely in order to announce those figures they must have gathered the data in the first place. Now, they either don't trust their own data, in which case, they never will be able to be driven by data, or they're just taking the piss.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

They continually release data and findings to be transparent and regularly update it as more data is received. 
 

I mean it literally says in the link “Further work remains underway to establish the level of protection against mortality from the Delta variant”.

 

The SAGE meeting minutes state something along the lines of lack of data and their delta risk assessment states further investigation needed. 
 

And most of their recommendations came before this announcement also, now you can definitely question the timing of that....

 

 

[yorkie1999]

54 minutes ago, Babylon said:

They continually release data and findings to be transparent and regularly update it as more data is received. 
 

I mean it literally says in the link “Further work remains underway to establish the level of protection against mortality from the Delta variant”.

 

The SAGE meeting minutes state something along the lines of lack of data and their delta risk assessment states further investigation needed. 
 

And most of their recommendations came before this announcement also, now you can definitely question the timing of that....

 

 

Dr Mary Ramsay, Head of Immunisation at PHE, said:

These hugely important findings confirm that the vaccines offer significant protection against hospitalisation from the Delta variant

But we need more data so we can confirm our confirmations. It's all mumbo jumbo.

[Ric Flair]

1 hour ago, Babylon said:

They continually release data and findings to be transparent and regularly update it as more data is received. 
 

I mean it literally says in the link “Further work remains underway to establish the level of protection against mortality from the Delta variant”.

 

The SAGE meeting minutes state something along the lines of lack of data and their delta risk assessment states further investigation needed. 
 

And most of their recommendations came before this announcement also, now you can definitely question the timing of that....

 

 

The sort of cover their own arses spiel that almost any organisation will tag on to anything as a caveat.

 

 

[Ric Flair]

Whether it's the right decision or not to delay lifting of restrictions its pretty damning that bringing back restrictions will quickly be on the agenda time and time again. 

 

I'm still yet to see SAGE or the government disclose under what scenario would the lifting of restrictions on June 21st occurred given we are further along with the vaccination programme than predicted months ago, and therefore if the Indian variant hadn't hit then we'd all be free to get back to normal?

 

In which case as soon as the next variant did arrive that looked iffy and more and more data needed to be obtained, restrictions could and would have been back in place. If they wouldn't do that, then why delay lifting it it's the same thing. Cases will rise, sadly some people will die whether vaccinated or not.

 

This is why I'm at the end of my tether, there's no light at the end of the tunnel because we will keep being put back under restrictions for a good while yet. 

[Babylon]

1 hour ago, Ric Flair said:

The sort of cover their own arses spiel that almost any organisation will tag on to anything as a caveat.

 

 

The sort of spiel people with a small amount of data, and with other investigations underway would give also.