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davieG

Claude Puel lays out his vision for Leicester City

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Now I know why he turned Southampton's scoring record into one of the poorest in the league.

 

It's what he does and we were warned.

 

It seems (unlike Claudio) the warnings were justified.

 

I do worry about next season.

 

But thankfully the premiership has never been poorer.

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2 minutes ago, Mark said:

The one thing I’m hanging onto is that he looks as frustrated as us on the touchline, and did make the right call in dropping Morgan and Simpson tonight.

we can all stand on the touch line and look frustrated hes perfected that look since being Southamptons manager :D

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I’m on the fence with Puel.

 

But I would say, what happens if he goes and someone comes in and we lose the first 5 next season? Back to square one.

 

Also, don’t forget what’s happened to Southampton since he left them? 

 

Would only get rid if they have a top, top manager ready to replace him. 

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19 minutes ago, StriderHiryu said:

I understand all of the negativity from the fans as most, if not all are fed up with the style of play we are seeing. However, I would ask the question "is it worth taking one step backwards to stake two steps forward?" Leicester City have never been a team that bosses possession and ruthlessly dominates teams from start to finish. We don't do pass and move, we've either been direct or played the counter attack. Both of those styles did work at times, famously so, but aren't styles that top teams play to consistently place highly in the league and challenge for cups regularly. And that is both the goal of the owners and surely of the fans too. We are quite literally undergoing a transition phase.

 

As the saying goes, Rome was not built in a day. Our passing as a team is a lot better than it was at the start of the season and in many games we control the game. Tonight at the end we had Chilwell, Barnes, Chodhury, Ndidi, Gray, Diabate and Maguire on the pitch. Nacho started, Dragovic was in for Morgan and Albrighton was at right-back as a player that could provide an overload and cross it into the box. Technical players have been introduced into the team (Silva, Diabate) and youth team players are getting chances to play. Is this not exactly the thing we should expect as part of a transition period?

 

Thus is it worth persevering with the current manager and trying to keep passing it about so that the team improves and eventually becomes a more dominating team, which we can build on over the years?

 

For me I would say yes, but it is hard to ignore the boring displays we've been putting in. Football is at the end of the day entertainment for fans and we want to be entertained. I know that for many, though we might have a lot more of the ball and pass it around, it's not nearly as exciting as not having the ball but countering with blistering pace and deadly finishing. It's also seen as a wasted opportunity by many that in a league that is weak and with a squad of players who won the title just 2 years ago that we seem so inept going forward.

 

You look at Southampton this season and worry, because Puel was their coach last year, and their drop in form last year was followed by a disastrous one this season. But at the same time any manager needs time to change the style and ethos of a club. Even Guardiola, Klopp and Pochetino did not pull it off over night.

 

I'm actually quite torn. I see a lot of things that are really encouraging and make me excited. But I think it's *crucial* for a team to embody the fans as it's our club. Our fans don't like the football we are seeing right now - that is a fact. Can we trust a manager to implement a long term plan if the football will remain boring?

 

I was really hoping Puel would bag a couple of wins before the end of the season to satiate the understandable frustration so he would have time to build in the summer. But I'd rate it as 50/50 that he stays right now.

Spot on and really well thought out post. Exactly my thoughts.

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7 hours ago, Ian S said:

The fact we are nit picking over whether a point a game is relegation form or even having the conversation really says it all.Furthermore your credibility will take a bash if you really believe that with just our fair share of luck since the turn of the year we would be 14 points better off!.As for encouraging displays recently,name them as I think they will be more than matched by average/poor ones.

He needs a strong end to the season to even start to convince me,starting tonight.

What it says is that I'm not massively fond of lying to try and score points. We've not hit relegation form in any sense under Puel.

 

Frankly, I'm going by what the stats say and what the score-line would typically be based on expected goals. That said, the improvement in expected score-line (as it were xG v xGA) in the past few months is the mirror of the first period under Puel, where our actual points tally outstripped our expected one. But, I've crunched through since Puel started until prior to kick-off tonight (not got the xG for those yet), table on actual results:

 

Pos Team P GF GA GD Points
1 MNC 24 61 21 40 62
2 LIV 25 64 19 45 57
3 MNU 25 43 22 21 54
4 TOT 25 47 25 22 48
5 CHE 24 34 22 12 42
6 BUR 24 25 20 5 39
7 ARS 24 42 32 10 38
8 LEI 24 35 33 2 34
9 EVE 25 31 36 -5 34
10 CRY 25 33 35 -2 31
11 BOU 26 35 45 -10 31
12 WHU 24 33 41 -8 28
13 NEW 24 24 25 -1 25
14 BRI 25 23 37 -14 25
15 SWA 24 20 36 -16 23
16 HUD 25 20 44 -24 23
17 WAT 25 27 43 -16 22
18 STO 25 21 44 -23 20
19 SOU 24 24 42 -18 17
20 WBA 25 20 42 -22 14


and table based on expected results:

 

Pos Team P xG xGA xGD xPoints
1 MNC 24 59 16 43 65
2 LIV 25 54 23 31 62
3 TOT 25 49 24 25 56
4 CHE 24 45 20 25 55
5 CRY 25 42 35 7 41
6 ARS 24 44 32 12 40
7 MNU 25 38 33 5 39
8 LEI 24 31 31 0 35
9 EVE 25 34 39 -5 29
10 BRI 25 28 34 -6 28
11 NEW 24 30 37 -7 26
12 WBA 25 25 33 -8 26
13 SOU 24 27 34 -7 22
14 WAT 25 27 37 -10 22
15 HUD 25 20 37 -17 21
16 BOU 26 27 49 -22 21
17 SWA 24 20 37 -17 20
18 STO 25 22 42 -20 20
19 WHU 24 23 39 -16 19
20 BUR 24 20 33 -13 17

 

Aside from the interesting sections on other teams (just how madly Burnley are defying the mean), you can see in both cases for us eighth (far more secure based on performances than on points) and within a good shout of 7th. 

 

As in the link I gave you, over the past few months we've created a lot of good chances (hence good xG) and not given away many good ones (hence good xGA). That's encouraging, because regression to the mean should see us start scoring in line with our xG (outscored it from Puels arrival til the new year, underscoring it since) and conceding in line with our xGA.

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43 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

What it says is that I'm not massively fond of lying to try and score points. We've not hit relegation form in any sense under Puel.

 

Frankly, I'm going by what the stats say and what the score-line would typically be based on expected goals. That said, the improvement in expected score-line (as it were xG v xGA) in the past few months is the mirror of the first period under Puel, where our actual points tally outstripped our expected one. But, I've crunched through since Puel started until prior to kick-off tonight (not got the xG for those yet), table on actual results:

 

Pos Team P GF GA GD Points
1 MNC 24 61 21 40 62
2 LIV 25 64 19 45 57
3 MNU 25 43 22 21 54
4 TOT 25 47 25 22 48
5 CHE 24 34 22 12 42
6 BUR 24 25 20 5 39
7 ARS 24 42 32 10 38
8 LEI 24 35 33 2 34
9 EVE 25 31 36 -5 34
10 CRY 25 33 35 -2 31
11 BOU 26 35 45 -10 31
12 WHU 24 33 41 -8 28
13 NEW 24 24 25 -1 25
14 BRI 25 23 37 -14 25
15 SWA 24 20 36 -16 23
16 HUD 25 20 44 -24 23
17 WAT 25 27 43 -16 22
18 STO 25 21 44 -23 20
19 SOU 24 24 42 -18 17
20 WBA 25 20 42 -22 14


and table based on expected results:

 

Pos Team P xG xGA xGD xPoints
1 MNC 24 59 16 43 65
2 LIV 25 54 23 31 62
3 TOT 25 49 24 25 56
4 CHE 24 45 20 25 55
5 CRY 25 42 35 7 41
6 ARS 24 44 32 12 40
7 MNU 25 38 33 5 39
8 LEI 24 31 31 0 35
9 EVE 25 34 39 -5 29
10 BRI 25 28 34 -6 28
11 NEW 24 30 37 -7 26
12 WBA 25 25 33 -8 26
13 SOU 24 27 34 -7 22
14 WAT 25 27 37 -10 22
15 HUD 25 20 37 -17 21
16 BOU 26 27 49 -22 21
17 SWA 24 20 37 -17 20
18 STO 25 22 42 -20 20
19 WHU 24 23 39 -16 19
20 BUR 24 20 33 -13 17

 

Aside from the interesting sections on other teams (just how madly Burnley are defying the mean), you can see in both cases for us eighth (far more secure based on performances than on points) and within a good shout of 7th. 

 

As in the link I gave you, over the past few months we've created a lot of good chances (hence good xG) and not given away many good ones (hence good xGA). That's encouraging, because regression to the mean should see us start scoring in line with our xG (outscored it from Puels arrival til the new year, underscoring it since) and conceding in line with our xGA.

xG and xGA means bugger all.Put the ball in the net and beat some p*** poor team for a change.

So if Puel is in charge next season and we have 18 points after 17 games  but our xG  is good against our xGA then all will be well with the world? No it will mean we are in a relegation dogfight.

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6 hours ago, Ian S said:

xG and xGAmeans bugger all.Put the ball in the net and beat some p*** poor team for a change.

So if Puel is in charge next season and we have 18 points after 17 games  but our xG  is good against our xGA then all will be well with the world? No it will mean we are in a relegation dogfight.

What they show is whether a run of results is sustainable, and at present they show that our form is worse that should expected from what is happening on the pitch, and so results should improve with how we're playing.

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4 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

What they show is whether a run of results is sustainable, and at present they show that our form is worse that should expected from what is happening on the pitch, and so results should improve with how we're playing.

That's the crux of the matter with stats.

It's about what you think will/should happen as opposed to what really happens in the end.

 

It's all fine and dandy to pull those statistics when they fit your argument and use them as an instrument to underline your personal hopes regarding the club, but Puel and the team need to put these chances away or else it'll end in tears.

He's got at least four more games to prove your numbers right.

Edited by MC Prussian
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