Title Race

[Chester Dontlie]

22 games to play...

I mean, come on men!!!

 

Of course they will slip and drop points. The fact they haven't slipped yet means nothing to me. Now they are smoothly sailing but the pressure should start to creep up on them in a month or two when their calendar will be busier with important fixtures than ours. At the same time, the pressure for us to win the title will be tiny in comparison, which is a perfect state to be in. I won't be even bothered much if we happen not to win on the Boxing Day. There will still be a ton of games to play. It's not like they are automatically granted 3 points every time they play. We will keep up the pace and be there right behind them to make the best of the opportunity. Believe!

 

...And IF not, then we should still have the Champions League spot to wipe the tears away

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 10 December 2019 by Chester Dontlie

[FoxFossil]

15 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

Forget the title, for now, Europe is the aim, 17 wins and we're guarenteed champions league.

Need to show your working please for full marks.

Not certain this is correct?!

 

[Nick]

4 hours ago, Daggers said:

I think this whole debate ignores an important point, there’s be a paradigm shift and many still haven’t latched onto it.

 

“Plucky” Leicester stole a title win and mounted a great escape. Posing the question “are we in a title race” maintains that mindset. I’d argue those days are now passing, if not gone.

 

The stated aim of regularly challenging for European places has come to fruition. We are where we are because of a consistent approach to achieving a target - something that will continue and see us becoming a mainstay in the top 6. And, by virtue of that, a title challenger each season.

 

I think it’s time to stop thinking about us as the try hard club that invariably cocks it all up. The loveable underdog era should be consigned to the history books for the time being. I only see us getting stronger now, and that should strike fear into the established pack. Genuinely think we are destined for great achievements over the next decade.

Look at you with all your positivity! 😆 

[yorkie1999]

45 minutes ago, FoxFossil said:

Need to show your working please for full marks.

Not certain this is correct?!

 

Show me it’s incorrect.

[st albans fox]

50 minutes ago, FoxFossil said:

Need to show your working please for full marks.

Not certain this is correct?!

 

it’s realistically not even 17 ..... CL this season will be max 70 points imo

 

we need another 11 wins !!!! 

[yorkie1999]

34 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

it’s realistically not even 17 ..... CL this season will be max 70 points imo

 

we need another 11 wins !!!! 

realistically, with man utd in 5th and going at 1.5 points per game, which is 57 points total, we need another 6 wins and a draw.

[Daggers]

2 hours ago, Swan Lesta said:

Look at you with all your positivity! 😆 

S'what comes from finishing early for the week and about to head off to the best cafes Netherland has to offer while this country descends into a spiral of hate and anarchy. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

8 hours ago, Daggers said:

I think this whole debate ignores an important point, there’s be a paradigm shift and many still haven’t latched onto it.

 

“Plucky” Leicester stole a title win and mounted a great escape. Posing the question “are we in a title race” maintains that mindset. I’d argue those days are now passing, if not gone.

 

The stated aim of regularly challenging for European places has come to fruition. We are where we are because of a consistent approach to achieving a target - something that will continue and see us becoming a mainstay in the top 6. And, by virtue of that, a title challenger each season.

 

I think it’s time to stop thinking about us as the try hard club that invariably cocks it all up. The loveable underdog era should be consigned to the history books for the time being. I only see us getting stronger now, and that should strike fear into the established pack. Genuinely think we are destined for great achievements over the next decade.

The potential is there for sure - but we've only finished in the top 4 once. And we haven't done it this season yet. Think we'd need to consistently finish in the top 6 over the next 5 years and maybe win a cup to be considered as successfully disrupting/entering the 'big 6'. 

 

Also don't discount the ability of the big clubs from dismantling our squad and/or improving there own. 

 

I totally agree that we've got everything in place to 'do a Chelsea/Man City/Spurs' and enter that group of clubs, but just simply haven't done it yet. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

On the title race - for me it's simple:

 

If by the time we play Liverpool on Boxing Day, the gap is 8 points or smaller and we get a point or 3 against them - then it's a title race, but even then they'd probably still be ahead of us and be odds-on to finish above us. 

[urban fox]

If (and a big one) we manage to cut the gap to 2 points (notwithstanding games in hands) by the new year, the media will suddenly be all over it like a rash and we will be their flavour of the month again and they will be playing the  "plucky little Leicester - can they do it again?" card for all they are worth whilst at the same time doing their best to derail us by telling the world that it was great while it lasted until all our players suddenly are going to our rivals in the transfer window

[pleatout]

31 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

On the title race - for me it's simple:

 

If by the time we play Liverpool on Boxing Day, the gap is 8 points or smaller and we get a point or 3 against them - then it's a title race, but even then they'd probably still be ahead of us and be odds-on to finish above us. 

Nah, top on boxing day.

 

Big Nige gets a draw in his 1st game early doors saturday

 

We beat Norwich and Man City.

 

Go top on goal diff by beating scousers on Boxing Day.  

 

**Nurse, Nurse.  He's out of bed again **

[FoxFossil]

4 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

Show me it’s incorrect.

22 games left, so max points available to other teams is 66 points.

You say we need 17 wins, which is 51 points, a difference of 15 points 

So, if I understand you correctly, Man U, Wolves and Spurs could catch us if we 

 get 17 wins, along with Man C and Liverpool.

Only asked as I am genuinely interested in your calculation, and your assumptions, suspect that other people who say we need less may well be right, but haven't been through the fixtures line by line.

Target should be 40 points, then Europa league, then CL then title, in that order as per Claudio.

[Ric Flair]

We simply have to win our next 3 games and then go and sign someone like Ziyech. If we follow that up with 17 wins out of the remaining 19 games we might be in the title race.

[Oxfordfox83]

We’re definitely in the race. So are Man City. But we’re not favourites, and in most people’s eyes we’re not second favourites. Beat Man City and we’ll be established as second favourites for the league, and beat Liverpool too and we’ll be that bit closer to making it a flat race for the title. 

 

Liverpool aren't going to drop points by the weight of stats. All we can do is keep winning as many points as we can and hope they drop 8 more than we do. They’ve got a hugely strong squad, but they’ve also got a long way to go, and a lot of history weighing on them... I reckon we’re 10/1, which is a long shot, but a lot shorter than 5000/1...

[January47]

Don’t know if mentioned elsewhere but if we win our next four games we will be top

[Stuntman_Mike]

17 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

On the title race - for me it's simple:

 

If by the time we play Liverpool on Boxing Day, the gap is 8 points or smaller and we get a point or 3 against them - then it's a title race, but even then they'd probably still be ahead of us and be odds-on to finish above us. 

This for me. We all know how well they are doing but if we're within 3-5 points going into the new year then we're certainly in the race.

[coalvillefox]

16 hours ago, FoxFossil said:

22 games left, so max points available to other teams is 66 points.

You say we need 17 wins, which is 51 points, a difference of 15 points 

So, if I understand you correctly, Man U, Wolves and Spurs could catch us if we 

 get 17 wins, along with Man C and Liverpool.

Only asked as I am genuinely interested in your calculation, and your assumptions, suspect that other people who say we need less may well be right, but haven't been through the fixtures line by line.

Target should be 40 points, then Europa league, then CL then title, in that order as per Claudio.

The most points gained by a side finishing 5th in the last 7 seasons is 75, with the average being 70. So lets say worse case scenario we need to get 76. So we are exactly half way there and need a further 38 points. So 12 wins and 2 draws or 13 wins to be safe from the remaining 22 games.

 

We are on course for 90.25 points (so 90) and the best a 3rd place side has managed in 7 years is 82 (average 76) so that gives us 8 points to play with for 2nd place.

[Chrysalis]

We have 38 points from 16 games, and effectively need 31 points from 22 games.  So we can afford to go down a fair bit on ppg and still get CL.  This is assuming 71 points is target. As is considered usually enough for top 4.

[Paddy_D]

We can live in hope......

 

https://www.planetfootball.com/quick-reads/seven-dramatic-premier-league-title-collapses-man-utd-liverpool-arsenal/

[Yush96]

As a Liverpool fan, I have to say my biggest concern between us and the title is you guys. Even before the season I was cautious about you guys because I knew BR was back with a point to prove and all you needed was a really good coach to get the best out of your squad. Media still pegs Manchester City as our title contenders but I think they might be past it this season. I dont know how the title will end up in the end, but for those people who are saying that we will slow down and become complacent just because City are 14 points behind are wrong. If it was any other club which had won the title recently then it might be true for them, but given its been a 30 year wait for us, I think our players will be focused until the very end, especially because they came so close last season. Not to mention, we have dropped the title 3 times after being top at christmas, dont think anyone one of us wants that again. 

 

Having said that, just want to congratulate you guys on where you are because I like BR as a manager, and I like how you have built your club up. Your owners (RIP Vichai) remind me of how our owners helped build us, and thats why I like you guys, your team seems more organic, than the artificial ones that United or City play. My Arsenal/United/Spurs supporting friends laughed when I said that you would make it to top 4 and they might miss out , but week by week your team keeps proving me right. I hope BR stays for another 2-3 years at least so he can create a legacy and help breakup the top 6 to a top 7 instead.

[Steven]

21 hours ago, Chrysalis said:

We have 38 points from 16 games, and effectively need 31 points from 22 games.  So we can afford to go down a fair bit on ppg and still get CL.  This is assuming 71 points is target. As is considered usually enough for top 4.

Then we will miss our target?!   

[Chrysalis]

3 hours ago, Yush96 said:

As a Liverpool fan, I have to say my biggest concern between us and the title is you guys. Even before the season I was cautious about you guys because I knew BR was back with a point to prove and all you needed was a really good coach to get the best out of your squad. Media still pegs Manchester City as our title contenders but I think they might be past it this season. I dont know how the title will end up in the end, but for those people who are saying that we will slow down and become complacent just because City are 14 points behind are wrong. If it was any other club which had won the title recently then it might be true for them, but given its been a 30 year wait for us, I think our players will be focused until the very end, especially because they came so close last season. Not to mention, we have dropped the title 3 times after being top at christmas, dont think anyone one of us wants that again. 

 

Having said that, just want to congratulate you guys on where you are because I like BR as a manager, and I like how you have built your club up. Your owners (RIP Vichai) remind me of how our owners helped build us, and thats why I like you guys, your team seems more organic, than the artificial ones that United or City play. My Arsenal/United/Spurs supporting friends laughed when I said that you would make it to top 4 and they might miss out , but week by week your team keeps proving me right. I hope BR stays for another 2-3 years at least so he can create a legacy and help breakup the top 6 to a top 7 instead.

You wont slow down, unless you are already champions.

 

I think your only potential slip up is your club will probably refuse to field weakened teams in CL and that could possibly bite you in the league, but I think its a big enough points margin, and you will also probably beat us this month as well.

[Dorkingfox]

6 hours ago, Yush96 said:

As a Liverpool fan, I have to say my biggest concern between us and the title is you guys. Even before the season I was cautious about you guys because I knew BR was back with a point to prove and all you needed was a really good coach to get the best out of your squad. Media still pegs Manchester City as our title contenders but I think they might be past it this season. I dont know how the title will end up in the end, but for those people who are saying that we will slow down and become complacent just because City are 14 points behind are wrong. If it was any other club which had won the title recently then it might be true for them, but given its been a 30 year wait for us, I think our players will be focused until the very end, especially because they came so close last season. Not to mention, we have dropped the title 3 times after being top at christmas, dont think anyone one of us wants that again. 

 

Having said that, just want to congratulate you guys on where you are because I like BR as a manager, and I like how you have built your club up. Your owners (RIP Vichai) remind me of how our owners helped build us, and thats why I like you guys, your team seems more organic, than the artificial ones that United or City play. My Arsenal/United/Spurs supporting friends laughed when I said that you would make it to top 4 and they might miss out , but week by week your team keeps proving me right. I hope BR stays for another 2-3 years at least so he can create a legacy and help breakup the top 6 to a top 7 instead.

Fair comment. Bill Shankley based his Liverpool team on the Foxes "Ice Kings", who should have cleaned up in the early to mid sixties (some bad injuries and lack of confidence in the end spoiled that) and we all know how BS went on to create a fantastic team.

[Long Eaton Fox]

On 11/12/2019 at 10:32, Chrysalis said:

We have 38 points from 16 games, and effectively need 31 points from 22 games.  So we can afford to go down a fair bit on ppg and still get CL.  This is assuming 71 points is target. As is considered usually enough for top 4.

Just had a look at the table from 2014 onwards and I think the minimum amount  of points we'll need to finish top 4 is 75. So 37 from 22. Having already got 38 from 16 this is possible.

[Guest bss9401]

7 minutes ago, Long Eaton Fox said:

Just had a look at the table from 2014 onwards and I think the minimum amount  of points we'll need to finish top 4 is 75. So 37 from 22. Having already got 38 from 16 this is possible.

This is more my thinking. Even allowing for a drop in form at some point W10-D7-L5 is definitely achievable. I'm not buying into this title race talk yet and for me the Champions League would still be an amazing achievement for BR's first full season. Unfortunately the jealous chasing bunch want to be able to say that we blew it if we don't catch Liverpool.