Corona Virus

[Beechey]

2 hours ago, UniFox21 said:

It's genuinely doing my head it, you can clearly see the journalists have no idea what they're asking. They all seem convinced that this virus is following some predictable pattern, focusing on death number targets and any deviation to what's been suggested is somehow the government or scientists fault. 

 

I felt for Chris Whitty yesterday as the number of times he repeated something along the lines of "Don't hold me to numbers" or "I didn't make estimations" regarding death tolls. Again with the antibody tests, they won't come in and fix everything. 

 

Journalists are making it seem the Gov. know all about this virus and are just holding information back. When in fact this is a new strain and scientists are learning as they go and advising best they can. 

Winds me up when they ask for a specific date for the lockdown to end. How can anyone possibly estimate that, considering we're just now exiting the peak?

It's so frustrating.

[martyn]

26 minutes ago, Beechey said:

Winds me up when they ask for a specific date for the lockdown to end. How can anyone possibly estimate that, considering we're just now exiting the peak?

It's so frustrating.

It's dangerous as well. The general public are stupid enough without being given any extra excuses for flouting the lockdown by sowing those seeds about things coming to an end.

Edited 28 April 2020 by martyn

[messerschmitt]

Of all the numbers flying around the one I can't get my head around is the number of new cases each day. Five weeks of staying in, hand washing and keeping away from anyone how are we managing to get another 5,000 infected every day? Surely each one of these represents a failure of PPE, policy or people ignoring the advice. Should we be prioritizing how this is happening and to who? is it a particular trade or employer. Is it spreading another way?

[Leicester_Loyal]

1 minute ago, messerschmitt said:

Of all the numbers flying around the one I can't get my head around is the number of new cases each day. Five weeks of staying in, hand washing and keeping away from anyone how are we managing to get another 5,000 infected every day? Surely each one of these represents a failure of PPE, policy or people ignoring the advice. Should we be prioritizing how this is happening and to who? is it a particular trade or employer. Is it spreading another way?

We're testing about 10x the amount of people we were a few weeks ago.

[messerschmitt]

Just now, Leicester_Loyal said:

We're testing about 10x the amount of people we were a few weeks ago.

I realise that, so the figure that are still catching it could be much higher, that's what I can't understand. After five weeks we know to wash hands, not go out etc but we're still getting 5,000 new cases a day, how are these 5,000 getting it? 

[Nalis]

5 minutes ago, messerschmitt said:

I realise that, so the figure that are still catching it could be much higher, that's what I can't understand. After five weeks we know to wash hands, not go out etc but we're still getting 5,000 new cases a day, how are these 5,000 getting it? 

Think there is something like 7-10 million key workers in the UK, possibly a number of that 5k are from those groups, directly or indirectly. Cant really be helped.

[Leicester_Loyal]

Plus it'll be spread in households, carehomes, via children going back and forth between parents, key workers still out working together.

[messerschmitt]

7 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Think there is something like 7-10 million key workers in the UK, possibly a number of that 5k are from those groups, directly or indirectly. Cant really be helped.

It still begs the question is the PPE not working, is keeping 2M apart not working. We are being told to follow instructions to stop the spread but its still spreading by at least 5,000 new cases a day.

[messerschmitt]

10 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Plus it'll be spread in households, carehomes, via children going back and forth between parents, key workers still out working together.

I can get that a household get it if one person gets it but how are they getting it? 5,000 still sounds like a lot of new cases a day after all these weeks of education.

[urban.spaceman]

 

 

[Heathrow fox]

3 minutes ago, messerschmitt said:

I can get that a household get it if one person gets it but how are they getting it? 5,000 still sounds like a lot of new cases a day after all these weeks of education.

Out of 60 million?Not really+it’s probably a lot more than that.The whole idea is to slow the spread not eradicate it.

[Lionator]

3 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Not every journalist...

This is actually important! It's not 'the media' as a whole. It's just that the way this is being reported on is wrong.

 

Say for example if a major Football scandal broke out, where hypothetically the government were funding Manchester United and fixing games, you wouldn't then start asking Laura Kuensberg or Robert Peston to question this, you'd want a good majority of Football journalists involved in the reporting too. It's the same with Coronavirus and Science. There's a lot of highly competent science reporters who have degrees in a science with journalism qualifications on top, and how many of them do we hear from at these briefings? 

[filbertway]

26 minutes ago, messerschmitt said:

It still begs the question is the PPE not working, is keeping 2M apart not working. We are being told to follow instructions to stop the spread but its still spreading by at least 5,000 new cases a day.

Does 0.0008% of the population sound better than 5000?

[Wymsey]

Where's evidence that people, who have survived this illness, will be 'immune' from it (If it occurs again the the future)?

[yorkie1999]

4 minutes ago, filbertway said:

Does 0.0008% of the population sound better than 5000?

0.008

[filbertway]

Just now, yorkie1999 said:

0.008

Don't sass me!

 

Also - yes. I've obviously done 500 instead of 5000

 

[Stevosevic]

3 minutes ago, Wymsey said:

Where's evidence that people, who have survived this illness, will be 'immune' from it (If it occurs again the the future)?

There isn't much yet.

 

But thats how most viruses work and there is no evidence to suggest that it isn't the case

[Guest Fktf]

20 minutes ago, filbertway said:

Does 0.0008% of the population sound better than 5000?

The raw number is actually quite important if we're hoping to go for a test trace isolate approach.

[yorkie1999]

20 minutes ago, Wymsey said:

Where's evidence that people, who have survived this illness, will be 'immune' from it (If it occurs again the the future)?

No where, but i think what's more important is, if you've had it and you recover, as many people are doing, is the virus gone from you or can you still harbor it and consequently pass it on. If that's the case, there's little point to this lock down as it's just going to carry on regardless until we find a vaccine, which could possibly take years.

[filbertway]

I thought vaccines worked on the basis that your body develops immunity having dealt with the virus once. A vaccine is basically delivering the virus in a manner that allows the host to safely fight it and be ready to fight it would it appear again right?

 

So if we didn't develop an immunity naturally then there'd be no vaccine?

 

I think we'd have heard a lot more leaks by now from people working on vaccines if there were signs that somebody doesn't become immune after getting it.

 

[murphy]

41 minutes ago, filbertway said:

Does 0.0008% of the population sound better than 5000?

 

35 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

0.008

 

 

5,000 / 60,000,000 = 0.00008

[Dahnsouff]

Just now, murphy said:

 

5,000 / 60,000,000 = 0.00008

 Its like never ending home schooling around here...

[murphy]

Just now, Dahnsouff said:

 Its like never ending home schooling around here...

 

Shows the collective intellect of FT when three of us can't agree how much 5,000 is as a percentage of 60,000,000  

[UniFox21]

If any of you are on twitter, this guy is really worth a follow. He tweets actual information and not politically charged bullshit. 

This tweet in particular is incredibly important for when inevitably the media latch onto us being the biggest death toll.

[z-layrex]

1 hour ago, messerschmitt said:

I can get that a household get it if one person gets it but how are they getting it? 5,000 still sounds like a lot of new cases a day after all these weeks of education.

On my icu many of the newer patients are either an essential worker or someone in the house is. Otherwise it could be people not respecting lockdown properly or catching it when out doing exercise. If a jogger has it for example they are spreading it absolutely everywhere and so you get it having your daily walk.