Corona Virus

[st albans fox]

It’s worth checking back on the thread to see how these things were being discussed at the time without the hindsight we now have ...... or think we now have .......

[Toddybad]

Office of national statistics data for the North West. Sobering.

 

 

[leicsmac]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/27/tech/coronavirus-conspiracy-theory/index.html

 

Conspiracy theorists.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52450692

 

Nah, can't imagine why either.

 

Oh, and @Sampson to add a little to what was said earlier, I have absolutely no idea why you thought I was implying that humans were 100% in control of the way this has all played out (as the conspiracy theorists believe) as I think I was rather emphatically clear in my original post on the topic that this was all about risk and the way human actions play into it, rather than believing in a straight causality and thus control. So, I'm not quite sure why that might get misinterpreted in that way unless one was trying to be deliberately argumentative.

[Sly]

It’s fair to say,

 

Some countries have handled this better than others.

 

Some haven’t disclosed true numbers.

 

The people that manufacture face masks are onto a massive profiteering joint currently. They’re ridiculously expensive compared to 6 weeks ago.

[whoareyaaa]

They keep bringing up this second wave honestly can see us being locked down again in a couple of months, this ain't going away anytime soon by the looks of it

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, Sly said:

It’s fair to say,

 

Some countries have handled this better than others.

 

Some haven’t disclosed true numbers.

 

The people that manufacture face masks are onto a massive profiteering joint currently. They’re ridiculously expensive compared to 6 weeks ago.

It’s called ‘supply and demand’. the whole world wants them!  And there are umpteen different types of facemask. I can bring hundreds of thousands in yet my local corner shop is selling them for less than I can land them in for. His are cotton disposable.  Will the public care?  They will just want something cheap that means they can get on the bus or train next month.

 

fwiw, the volume purchase price of type 1 disposable surgical masks from china have increased from approx 20/25c each a month ago to 25/30c now.  if coming by air then add 8 cents to that. Then there is duty and vat. And remember that you have to pay upfront for everything. 

 

N95 types are available at different prices depending whether they are valved or not so v difficult to judge how much supply inflation there has been in that market but it is notable.   

its a bit of a minefield!   
 

my own view is that the Chinese manufacturers are not inflating their prices significantly (their raw material costs have increased too) but there are traders becoming involved everywhere who are adding their margin which results in a higher price for joe public. 
 

 

 

 

[st albans fox]

30 minutes ago, whoareyaaa said:

They keep bringing up this second wave honestly can see us being locked down again in a couple of months, this ain't going away anytime soon by the looks of it

I think it’s unavoidable given the general lack of fortitude shown by various sections of society (for many reasons I accept)  ...... but the question is how high and sharp it will be. 

[filbertway]

What do New Zealand mean by they have eradicated it? They obviously don't mean exactly that otherwise they would be able to lift the lock down there.

 

Couldn't find anything but I assume they mean there has been no new cases reported for a day or two?

 

Edited to say it turns out they are now saying they haven't eradicated it, but are hitting their goals to eradication.

[UniFox21]

14 hours ago, Lionator said:

One of the media's failings during this is allowing their 'political' commentators the bigger gigs than their scientific correspondents. I'd rather listen to people with some idea and sympathy with what's happening rather than the usual daily nonsense from Peston, Rigby and so on. 

It's genuinely doing my head it, you can clearly see the journalists have no idea what they're asking. They all seem convinced that this virus is following some predictable pattern, focusing on death number targets and any deviation to what's been suggested is somehow the government or scientists fault. 

 

I felt for Chris Whitty yesterday as the number of times he repeated something along the lines of "Don't hold me to numbers" or "I didn't make estimations" regarding death tolls. Again with the antibody tests, they won't come in and fix everything. 

 

Journalists are making it seem the Gov. know all about this virus and are just holding information back. When in fact this is a new strain and scientists are learning as they go and advising best they can. 

[Crinklyfox]

14 hours ago, Toddybad said:

Cuomo has just given some stats re New York.

 

• New York’s death rate is in decline, but hospitalizations are flat.
• Cuomo plans to extend a 15 May stay-at-home order for some parts of the state while other parts of the state may begin to “unpause”.
• Cuomo said the state is still seeing 1,000 new Covid-19 cases per day.
• A preliminary survey found that 14.9% of New York residents have antibodies to the virus.

If the 14.9% turns out to be close to the real figure that this suggests a much lower figure for non urban settings. I assume there'd be an an expectation major cities like New York, London etc would be outliers on the high side set against national averages? 

 

12 hours ago, Lionator said:

Do you know if that’s New York City or the whole of New York state? If it’s just the city then that’s a lot lower than the 21% last week and would be bad news in terms of fatality rate. If it’s the state then that would be an increase and would be, in a twisted way, welcome news. 

A study on cases in New York City was carried out over the course of a month, only recently published.  It's only a snapshot but you may find some of the data of interest.

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184

[ozleicester]

NRL Australia announce resumption

 

https://www.nrl.com/

[Carl the Llama]

48 minutes ago, filbertway said:

What do new zealand mean by they have eradicated it? They obviously dont mean exactly that otherwise they would be able to lift the lock down there.

 

Couldnt find anything but I assume they mean there has been no new cases reported for a day or two?

It means they new cases have been in the single figures, so the spread has been effectively eradicated.

 

7 hours ago, leicsmac said:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/27/tech/coronavirus-conspiracy-theory/index.html

 

Conspiracy theorists.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52450692

 

Nah, can't imagine why either.

 

Oh, and @Sampson to add a little to what was said earlier, I have absolutely no idea why you thought I was implying that humans were 100% in control of the way this has all played out (as the conspiracy theorists believe) as I think I was rather emphatically clear in my original post on the topic that this was all about risk and the way human actions play into it, rather than believing in a straight causality and thus control. So, I'm not quite sure why that might get misinterpreted in that way unless one was trying to be deliberately argumentative.

People like Trump because he tells it straight and says what he means, except for the times when he doesn't mean what he said and the fact he said it is fake news. This way Trump isn't ever responsible for the things he says, or the very predictable fallout from it, only for the good things that happen to occur while his name is on the Oval Office's desk.

[Lionator]

1 hour ago, whoareyaaa said:

They keep bringing up this second wave honestly can see us being locked down again in a couple of months, this ain't going away anytime soon by the looks of it

It's not inevitable but it'll need a lot of things in place to avoid it. This includes a very fast test and tracing capability, a functional app, reduced international movement and a bit of luck. The longer this first lockdown goes on, the better the longer term outlook I think.

[Voll Blau]

15 hours ago, Lionator said:

One of the media's failings during this is allowing their 'political' commentators the bigger gigs than their scientific correspondents. I'd rather listen to people with some idea and sympathy with what's happening rather than the usual daily nonsense from Peston, Rigby and so on. 

Journalists/media have been getting a lot of unfair stick during this crisis, but I fully agree with this. It's not as if it's an access issue either given questions have recently been opened to to regional reporters from outside the Westminster lobby and also now to members of the public.

[Lionator]

42 minutes ago, UniFox21 said:

It's genuinely doing my head it, you can clearly see the journalists have no idea what they're asking. They all seem convinced that this virus is following some predictable pattern, focusing on death number targets and any deviation to what's been suggested is somehow the government or scientists fault. 

 

I felt for Chris Whitty yesterday as the number of times he repeated something along the lines of "Don't hold me to numbers" or "I didn't make estimations" regarding death tolls. Again with the antibody tests, they won't come in and fix everything. 

 

Journalists are making it seem the Gov. know all about this virus and are just holding information back. When in fact this is a new strain and scientists are learning as they go and advising best they can. 

I fear that because the political world has really been in the spotlight for the last 5 years or so, we've completely over politicised the situation. For whatever reason Whitty and Vallance have become politicians, whether that be through the governments handling of the situation or the media's, or both. They are of course scientists, who advise the government. Of course politics plays an integral role in the reaction to events but when we look back in two-three years to how we got out of this mess, it'll be the scientists who got us there. The government haven't helped though, there's stories about them denying research funds to virologists who have spoken out against these issues, which is massively detrimental.

 

The daily press conferences are also tedious and pointless at this stage. Don't waste your time watching them. We learn nothing new, just the same old drivel asked by political journalists who haven't got the foggiest about the very basics of how pandemics work and the science behind them. On the other hand the select committees have been excellent sources of information, led mainly by Jeremy Hunt (I never thought I'd be saying that). If it was up to me I'd have a Monday and Thursday/Friday press conference with any updates on changes. I'd have a weekly public service broadcast focused solely on the latest scientific updates hosted by somebody completely unrelated to politics (a Brian Cox/Louis Theroux type), with guests in the mould of Whitty but also Sarah Gilbert from Oxford. I keep harping on about the Germans but they've nailed their media approach to this which has ultimately contributed to keep their numbers lower. Dr. Drosten (chief virologist) does his scientific podcast for the nation three times a week roughly and the population appear to be quite educated on the matter. Cuomo's conferences in NY are also of a great format. Facts, no spin or bluster, just informative. 

 

The point is that we desperately need to separate the science from the politics, or else beliefs related to science are just going to become a politically tribal thing like every other bloody thing in this country.

[fox_up_north]

I haven't watched any daily briefings. So much of it is repeated information on deaths and so forth. When they have something to announce - they will. At this point it's a waste of everybody's time. 

[Dahnsouff]

Like your post @Lionator - I just fear that anything that makes its way into the public eye, be it politics, other news, Brexit, pandemics, etc becomes a popularity contest

Everything becomes fodder for spinning into a controversy, an injustice, and it gets to the point where the story is lost or forgotten in manufactured (not always) outrage, outrage stoked by the media.

P*ss*s me right off

[davieG]

When you get presenters on BBC Breakfast saying in response to the hundreds of thousands of PPI items being delivered - "are they counting gloves as 1 or 2 items", then they have certainly lived up to their deserved reputations.

 

Politicians have sunk so low in recent years but I believe the media have now reached the ultimate nadir.

[messerschmitt]

2 hours ago, st albans fox said:

I think it’s unavoidable given the general lack of fortitude shown by various sections of society (for many reasons I accept)  ...... but the question is how high and sharp it will be. 

Instead of penalizing everyone why don't the authorities/police stop the rule breakers, imposing stricter rules will just hit the people who are already abiding by them, the ones that are ignoring the current rules will just ignore anything else. There must be sufficient man power we've seen and heard stories of police moving people on from park benches and the like.

[z-layrex]

11 minutes ago, davieG said:

When you get presenters on BBC Breakfast saying in response to the hundreds of thousands of PPI items being delivered - "are they counting gloves as 1 or 2 items", then they have certainly lived up to their deserved reputations.

 

Politicians have sunk so low in recent years but I believe the media have now reached the ultimate nadir.

I cannot really describe my disdain for journalists as a whole, to the point I no longer support freedom of the press. These people quite literally ruin lives, cause suicides and just get away with it.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

26 minutes ago, z-layrex said:

I cannot really describe my disdain for journalists as a whole, to the point I no longer support freedom of the press. These people quite literally ruin lives, cause suicides and just get away with it.

Not every journalist...

[yorkie1999]

3 hours ago, whoareyaaa said:

They keep bringing up this second wave honestly can see us being locked down again in a couple of months, this ain't going away anytime soon by the looks of it

We'll all end up wearing face masks, like they do in china. I bet they get these virus' all the time but have used the smog excuse as a cover up to why they really wear them.  

[martyn]

52 minutes ago, davieG said:

When you get presenters on BBC Breakfast saying in response to the hundreds of thousands of PPI items being delivered - "are they counting gloves as 1 or 2 items", then they have certainly lived up to their deserved reputations.

 

Politicians have sunk so low in recent years but I believe the media have now reached the ultimate nadir.

Isn't this a response to the Panorama episode last night where it was claimed that a pair of gloves is being counted as 2 separate items of PPE to make the numbers delivered look better?

[martyn]

The updated ONS statistics have been released which reflects updates up to and including April 13th. 

 

On April 13th:

 

Reported Covid 19 Deaths in Hospital - 11408

ONS "Excess Deaths" - 27015

 

Chris Giles at the FT used last weeks ONS data + reported Hospital Deaths this week to estimate 44k deaths as of yesterday "linked to Coronavirus". 

 

Unfortunately the data released today worsens that model.

 

 

 

 

[StanSP]

What do we make of the Panorama investigation then, about government not stockpiling properly and millions of missing protective equipment items? 33m respirator masks on original 2009 list but only 12m handed out since then. Government is refusing to comment on the missing millions of masks... 

 

Also, on March 13th the government looked to remove COVID-19 from the list of HCIDs despite it only being made one in January... (this really doesn't sit right with me considering by March the outbreak was fully global). 

 

Experts that put it on the list in January were not consulted with when discussion took place to remove it. Instead the government asked another committee (Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens) under 'any other business' part of the agenda. You'd think it would be quite high, not just dashed under AOB?! 

 

The spokesperson for the committee said part of the reason why it was removed was because 'HCID classification is used for serious infections where there are limited number of cases requiring specialist input and facilities'. What was COVID-19 then? Limited number of cases despite the numbers China and Italy were seeing at that time?? 

 

Government also ignored a warning from own advisors to buy missing equipment