Corona Virus

[leicsmac]

20 minutes ago, Sampson said:

No offense leicsmac because you're clearly an intelligent person, but you're one of the biggest misanthropes I've ever known and I certainly think that is coming into play in your assessment here.

 

There's not really any evidence or scientific basis for what you're claiming tbh. It's pure speculation.

 

I think humans just like to feel like their in control of their destiny and the goings on in the world. It's just a random genetic mutation- it happens to all species of animals and has happened to humans much more frequently in the past than it does now due to our improved sanitation, vaccinations/medications and hygiene. Scientists had been warning for decades that a pandemic was overdue stastically.

 

Think people claiming this is nature kicking back against humans or whatever are just trying to justify to themselves that humans are somehow in control, just like conspiracy theorists do - because a random mutation of nature that humans have no control over is a much scarier threat. It was already a statistical likelihood that we were well overdue a pandemic regardless of human interference.

Hahaha, well, believe it or not I'd like to see humans last for a good long time and I think we've talked about that before. It's just that I think the way that would come about may well be rather specific. Though I think judging by our past discussions we might also have a different outlook on misanthropy - based on our differing viewpoints of what the worst case scenario for humans would be.

 

To clarify at this point, of course the genetic mutations are random and I don't hold truck with the idea that the earth and/or nature is somehow sentient and is "teaching us a lesson" - but I think it is reasonably scientifically and mathematically obvious that human actions uncovering sections of Earth that have not been discovered yet and/or changing them in a way that has variables effects a risk from one of those genetic mutations, and the more we do it, naturally the more cumulative risk there will be.

[StanSP]

38 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Shows he has actually been testing away from the news ........

 

on a serious note, doesn’t that tell us that for govt, the main measure for them was that the NHS wasn’t overwhelmed and the number of deaths would be whatever they were ..... I expect the assumption being that if the NHS was ok, then the number of dead wouldn’t exceed 20k ....

Am I right in thinking that a few weeks ago, may be even in March, the government said 20k deaths would be deemed a success. Now that they've surpassed that (sadly), is that not going against what their original aim was? 

[Nalis]

25 minutes ago, EastAnglianFox said:

Death toll 22% lower than last Monday's figure.

 

Preliminary figure shows 350 deaths recorded in last 24 hours for England, Scotland and Wales

Yeah comparing it as you've done or on a 7 day rolling average are the best ways of looking at this rather than a day by day given the fluctuations, etc.

 

Positive trend anyway which gives hope for the future.

[reynard]

2 hours ago, murphy said:

The coronavirus pandemic is likely to be followed by even more deadly and destructive disease outbreaks unless their root cause – the rampant destruction of the natural world – is rapidly halted, the world’s leading biodiversity experts have warned, writes Damian Carrington, the Guardian’s environment editor.

In an article, they write:

There is a single species responsible for the Covid-19 pandemic – us. Recent pandemics are a direct consequence of human activity, particularly our global financial and economic systems that prize economic growth at any cost. We have a small window of opportunity, in overcoming the challenges of the current crisis, to avoid sowing the seeds of future ones.

Professors Josef Settele, Sandra Díaz and Eduardo Brondizio led the most comprehensive planetary health check ever undertaken, which was published in 2019 by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). It concluded that human society was in jeopardy from the accelerating decline of the Earth’s natural life-support systems.

In an article published on Monday, with Dr Peter Daszak, who is preparing the next IPBES assessment, they write:

Rampant deforestation, uncontrolled expansion of agriculture, intensive farming, mining and infrastructure development, as well as the exploitation of wild species have created a ‘perfect storm’ for the spillover of diseases.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/halt-destruction-nature-worse-pandemics-top-scientists

Well that stopped me pruning my roses. Let the greenfly flourish!

[worth_the_wait]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

Am I right in thinking that a few weeks ago, may be even in March, the government said 20k deaths would be deemed a success. Now that they've surpassed that (sadly), is that not going against what their original aim was? 

I don't think there was ever a target as such for success/failure.

 

The aim was ultimately to keep the death total as low as possible.

 

The health chappie said we'd be lucky to keep it under 20,000.   Too much shouldn't be read into that. It was just a sobering statement of reality.

[fuchsntf]

6 hours ago, davieG said:

Ha, Not with my perforated ear drums, even swimming is a no, no. It was swimming in the sea at Great Yarmouth as a kid with all the turds and other effluent floating around that caused it, we knew no difference then - stupid as we were.

Not all Holiday makers in Gt.Yarmouth were turds.......

My most enjoyable years ,regular Holiday Place for my Family und Close relations,but Not every year...

When I was older Teenager/Early 20s, started to go to the Tower,Met many celebraties,in their down time,Plus some Real heavies from the smoke

 

Great memories from my childhood playing in the dunes,somestays on the North dene Caravan site or nearer Town in a shared House/ Big flat .(Early 60s)

Night markets,with Cockles,mussels,whelks,or mushy peas( pudding) with Mint sauce & fish n Chip van or stall,

Tripe & onions,black pudding,chitterling & Roe & pie  stalls.Great & tasty on colder rainy nights

When a Good British faire,still ment something. Great food traditions that we Left to fade & die away,many jumping over to France having The same dishes,but with more romantic sounding names...We snobbed our traditions away,Italy,France,Germany kept their Local Food faire markets

 

The Prom & Front Gardens were quite Beautiful back  then .On occasions...snobbed it to Weymouth,maybe Weston-super-mare,or the Foreign Exotic Torquay

Before Spain and Foreign destinations took off..Then we all started to travel and in the end found and brought back by Corona-virus..

 

 

Edited 27 April 2020 by fuchsntf

[Finnaldo]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

Am I right in thinking that a few weeks ago, may be even in March, the government said 20k deaths would be deemed a success. Now that they've surpassed that (sadly), is that not going against what their original aim was? 

Nah, if I remember correctly one of Vallance or Whitty that said from the models drew up that less than 20,000 deaths would be a ‘good outcome’. It was never set as a government target and from the tone I think it was more a warning of how serious the situation was and to play along with lockdown. 
 

They’ve never  set a government target, which is a good idea in my opinion as setting one is easy ammunition for opposition really. All you can do is prevent hitting the worst case scenario. 

Edited 27 April 2020 by Finnaldo

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, EastAnglianFox said:

Death toll 22% lower than last Monday's figure.

 

Preliminary figure shows 350 deaths recorded in last 24 hours for England, Scotland and Wales

And approx 50% lower than mon 13th 

 

let’s hope that there are no bad surprises tomorrow and Wednesday ......

 

For england however, as a word of caution, looking at the numbers for the previous three Tuesdays -  778, 744, 758 whereas the Monday numbers for the last 4 Monday’s (inc today first) are 329, 429, 667, 403.  A clear lowering trend on Mondays but tuesdays have not shown that trend downwards as yet. I’m hopeful that whilst we will see a larger total tomorrow as some weekend figures are added, we won’t see the 700+ that the last three Tuesdays have brought. More likely in 550 area which will actually be consistent with the overall dropping figures. 

[davieG]

24 minutes ago, fuchsntf said:

Not all Holiday makers in Gt.Yarmouth were turds.......

My most enjoyable years ,regular Holiday Place for my Family und Close relations,but Not every year...

When I was older Teenager/Early 20s, started to go to the Tower,Met many celebraties,in their down time,Plus some Real heavies from the smoke

 

Great memories from my childhood playing in the dunes,somestays on the North dene Caravan site or nearer Town in a shared House/ Big flat .(Early 60s)

Night markets,with Cockles,mussels,whelks,or mushy peas( pudding) with Mint sauce & fish n Chip van or stall,

Tripe & onions,black pudding,chitterling & Roe & pie  stalls.Great & tasty on colder rainy nights

When a Good British faire,still ment something. Great food traditions that we Left to fade & die away,many jumping over to France having The same dishes,but with more romantic sounding names...We snobbed put traditions away,Italy,France,Germany kept their Local Food faire markets

 

The Prom & Front Gardens were quite Beautiful back  then .On occasions...snobbed it to Weymouth,maybe Weston-super-mare,or the Foreign Exotic Torquay

Before Spain and Foreign destinations took off..Then we all started to travel and in the end found and brought back Corona-virus..

 

 

Were up the South Denes end nearer to the harbour. There used to be thousands of caravans but they've all gone now. Went to Lowestoft for a wedding a few years ago and popped into Yarmouth was like a deserted town at the South Denes end beyond the Pleasure Beach. The beautiful beach over grown with grass because no one goes there now.

 

 

[Lionator]

One of the media's failings during this is allowing their 'political' commentators the bigger gigs than their scientific correspondents. I'd rather listen to people with some idea and sympathy with what's happening rather than the usual daily nonsense from Peston, Rigby and so on. 

[st albans fox]

12 minutes ago, Lionator said:

One of the media's failings during this is allowing their 'political' commentators the bigger gigs than their scientific correspondents. I'd rather listen to people with some idea and sympathy with what's happening rather than the usual daily nonsense from Peston, Rigby and so on. 

Rigby was dreadful with her follow up .... 20k wasn’t ever a target of any sort ffs ..........

Edited 27 April 2020 by st albans fox

[martyn]

3 hours ago, Lionator said:

This concerned me to be honest. Italy's healthcare system got completely overwhelmed yet they only have 6k more deaths than us with a three week headstart. Ours didn't yet there's still a high volume of deaths. My thought is perhaps the media overplayed the state of Italian hospitals based on one or two hospitals which were overwhelmed. 

I read somewhere a few weeks ago that in Italy, they'll try and keep absolutely everyone alive using invasive kit, irrespective of age/condition. I.e. they won't triage to anywhere near the extent the NHS would, until it's forced on them by circumstance.

[Jon the Hat]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

And approx 50% lower than mon 13th 

 

let’s hope that there are no bad surprises tomorrow and Wednesday ......

 

For england however, as a word of caution, looking at the numbers for the previous three Tuesdays -  778, 744, 758 whereas the Monday numbers for the last 4 Monday’s (inc today first) are 329, 429, 667, 403.  A clear lowering trend on Mondays but tuesdays have not shown that trend downwards as yet. I’m hopeful that whilst we will see a larger total tomorrow as some weekend figures are added, we won’t see the 700+ that the last three Tuesdays have brought. More likely in 550 area which will actually be consistent with the overall dropping figures. 

Tuesday includes catch up of some later reporting hopsitals over the weekend.  Seen it every week.

[fuchsntf]

1 hour ago, davieG said:

Were up the South Denes end nearer to the harbour. There used to be thousands of caravans but they've all gone now. Went to Lowestoft for a wedding a few years ago and popped into Yarmouth was like a deserted town at the South Denes end beyond the Pleasure Beach. The beautiful beach over grown with grass because no one goes there now.

 

 

Sad..!!  .A few years ago I did a Welsh and England tour,all the older well known seaside towns have just deteriorated....

[Toddybad]

Cuomo has just given some stats re New York.

 

• New York’s death rate is in decline, but hospitalizations are flat.
• Cuomo plans to extend a 15 May stay-at-home order for some parts of the state while other parts of the state may begin to “unpause”.
• Cuomo said the state is still seeing 1,000 new Covid-19 cases per day.
• A preliminary survey found that 14.9% of New York residents have antibodies to the virus.

If the 14.9% turns out to be close to the real figure that this suggests a much lower figure for non urban settings. I assume there'd be an an expectation major cities like New York, London etc would be outliers on the high side set against national averages? 

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

New Zealand have announced they have currently eliminated the virus.

A glimmer of hope and I know the population is nowhere near ours but they do have big cities, I’m clinging onto any good news.

[Lionator]

1 hour ago, Toddybad said:

Cuomo has just given some stats re New York.

 

• New York’s death rate is in decline, but hospitalizations are flat.
• Cuomo plans to extend a 15 May stay-at-home order for some parts of the state while other parts of the state may begin to “unpause”.
• Cuomo said the state is still seeing 1,000 new Covid-19 cases per day.
• A preliminary survey found that 14.9% of New York residents have antibodies to the virus.

If the 14.9% turns out to be close to the real figure that this suggests a much lower figure for non urban settings. I assume there'd be an an expectation major cities like New York, London etc would be outliers on the high side set against national averages? 

Do you know if that’s New York City or the whole of New York state? If it’s just the city then that’s a lot lower than the 21% last week and would be bad news in terms of fatality rate. If it’s the state then that would be an increase and would be, in a twisted way, welcome news. 

[Wymsey]

2 hours ago, Lionator said:

One of the media's failings during this is allowing their 'political' commentators the bigger gigs than their scientific correspondents. I'd rather listen to people with some idea and sympathy with what's happening rather than the usual daily nonsense from Peston, Rigby and so on. 

Find that Laura Kuenssberg (BBC) the worst, personally.

Her 'analysis' on this is literally what has been said on their website and repeating what someone else (such as Boris Johnson) had just said beforehand.

Edited 27 April 2020 by Wymsey

[Jon the Hat]

34 minutes ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

New Zealand have announced they have currently eliminated the virus.

A glimmer of hope and I know the population is nowhere near ours but they do have big cities, I’m clinging onto any good news.

Very different unfortunately.  They locked down before is really arrived, whereas hundreds of thousand probably had it here before the first person died of it.  We have some of the busiest international travel hubs in the world. I work near Buckingham palace, and there were busloads of Chinese tourists even into March.

[Stevosevic]

25 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Do you know if that’s New York City or the whole of New York state? If it’s just the city then that’s a lot lower than the 21% last week and would be bad news in terms of fatality rate. If it’s the state then that would be an increase and would be, in a twisted way, welcome news. 

New York state. New York City is higher

[Lionator]

13 minutes ago, Stevosevic said:

New York state. New York City is higher

Goodish news then.

[Izzy]

44 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Do you know if that’s New York City or the whole of New York state? 

It's up to you....

[WigstonWanderer]

28 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Very different unfortunately.  They locked down before is really arrived, whereas hundreds of thousand probably had it here before the first person died of it.  We have some of the busiest international travel hubs in the world. I work near Buckingham palace, and there were busloads of Chinese tourists even into March.

Baffling that this wasn’t shut down.

[Jon the Hat]

9 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Baffling that this wasn’t shut down.

To be fair they could have been here for quite a while by then; there were certainly flights during Feb.

[WigstonWanderer]

12 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

To be fair they could have been here for quite a while by then; there were certainly flights during Feb.

Personally I must have got twitchy about the situation at the end of January because I text my brother in the UK on 26th 24th Jan (I think, not near my phone to check at the minute) to ask him if he still thought that his mid February Asian/Australian 5 week holiday was a good idea.

 

I realise that partially shutting down international travel in the UK is a much bigger decision, but plenty was already known at that time, and sealing borders is surely one of the early steps to take in such a situation.

Edited 28 April 2020 by WigstonWanderer