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filbertway

Coronavirus Thread

By filbertway, in General Chat

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Nalis

Nalis

Posted
Posted

The news outlets keep shouting about how relaxing restrictions over Christmas will result in an increase in cases 

 

No fvckin shit sherlocks, its obviously risk based decision, ie, if the trade off of allowing families to create bubbles is having longer restrictions in January/Feb then a lot of people are willing to take that.

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Nod.E

Nod.E

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, UniFox21 said:

I don't get this, we'll never know how another Government/party would've handled this pandemic and is all hypothetical squabbling. Pointless saying Labour would've been worse or better as we'll never know.

 

Someone can be against how Tory have handled this and not regret voting for them. 

 

Did you not regret voting for Corbyn in light of all the anti-Semitism surrounding him? 

I vote parties and policies, not personalities.

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Otis

Otis

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, String fellow said:

Not once have I ever suggested any conspiracy theory or been extreme in any way. But the facts speak for themselves. More people have already died in the UK from Covid-19 in the last 9 months than were killed in over 5 years by German bombing in WWII. I've already lost one friend to the virus and another only just got through it. Even the PM almost didn't survive it. Until a vaccine finally arrives, if we play down the continuing threat, we will do so at our own and other people's peril.

With

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Nalis

Nalis

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Nod.E said:

I vote parties and policies, not personalities.

I hear people say this but I think personality has to come into it to a certain degree. For example, if the individual had a history of not sticking to promises or if they weren't strong enough (or too brash) to push through what they are campaigning for. 

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rachhere

rachhere

Posted
Posted

The more I think about these ‘saving Christmas plans’ the more I am getting angry at it. Yes absolutely I do not in any circumstances want people alone on Christmas day. But mixing four households for that length of time when that will in many cases mean living for several days under the same roof. Just crazy. Let people who would otherwise be on their own join with other family/friends (oh yes, this focus on just families is driving me mad too - not everyone has family to go to, they need to adjust their language). But putting something in place when you know it will lead to 25 days (at least) further restrictions as a result when businesses have done everything they can to keep afloat is just irresponsible. I am wondering how much they have then factored in uni students returning back after the holiday as well. 
 

Obviously I appreciate people want to get together  , but throw in instead an extra bank holiday in May when the vaccine programme has had a chance to kick in and people can meet outdoors for bbqs. 

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Nod.E

Nod.E

Posted
Posted (edited)

At the risk of sounding a bit scrooge, is Christmas really important enough that we should sacrifice further weeks of lockdown and death because of it?

 

Just cancel it.

 

In a world that lockdowns are the norm, people aren't allowed to gym, golf, work in an office or shop without a mask. Just cancel it.

 

I mean what is Christmas? It is literally old people. Indoors with the rest of their family. Getting pissed and sloppy. For long periods. During winter. It's the perfect storm for it. Social distancing won't stand a chance.

 

Why have we bothered locking down to 'save lives, protect the nhs' if a meaningless holiday is exempt. We can't cancel Christmas because it will make santa sad, or Jesus sad, but we can shut down society, bankrupt whole generations and end businesses. Makes no sense to me.

 

For what it's worth, I do like Christmas. But don't we have our priorities in the wrong place if Christmas can go ahead but businesses and lives can't?

 

Just another example of this government acting based on what they think will be the popular move. 'We're cancelling Christmas' isn't going to win you a popularity contest. But it might save lives, if that's really what they've been interested in this whole time.

Edited by Nod.E
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Corky

Corky

Posted
Posted

Either we're in a position where we can't meet throughout the next couple of months or we can meet from early December. How is a five day break in the middle of a three month lockdown (should the whole of January be a lockdown) logical?

 

It also goes against all the guidance they bombard us with.

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Miquel The Work Geordie

Miquel The Work Geordie

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Tier 2 pubs will be only serving alcohol with a meal and no mixing of households.

Tier 3 pubs will be click & collect only.

 

In order to stop revellers congregating in the street at 10pm, they're going to extend the closing time to 11pmlol Amazing.

 

They're killing hospitality with this shite. The issue with congregation was always that the government (very densely) demanded everyone had to be out of the pub at a set time. Traditionally you ring for last orders with a supping up time for final drinks and people do so (and mill out) at their own pace, so it's staggered over half an hour or so - and different venues have different closing times so it's far more evenly spread through an evening. Demanding everyone has to be out at 10, no matter the venue - very unsurprisingly leads to everyone leaving at bang on 10 into the streets, onto buses, tubes, trams etc.

 

It's so unbelievably thick I can't get my head around it.

 

I ****ing hate Johnson and I ****ing hate this government.

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Leicester_Loyal

Leicester_Loyal

Posted
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Tier 2 pubs will be only serving alcohol with a meal and no mixing of households.

Tier 3 pubs will be click & collect only.

 

In order to stop revellers congregating in the street at 10pm, they're going to extend the closing time to 11pmlol Amazing.

News articles saying they’re keeping last orders at 10pm but changing the closing time to 11pm, that makes more sense, if only slightly. Everyone will just order 2 drinks at 9:55 though! 
 

They should have done staggered opening and closing times for different pubs/areas/postcodes whatever. 
 

EDIT: Regarding Christmas, I think they know people won’t follow the rules, so they’re just trying to be seen as the good guys. 

Edited by Leicester_Loyal
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Mickyblueeyes

Mickyblueeyes

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Costock_Fox said:

The plan for Christmas isn’t about the infection, it’s about getting the public back on side for hopefully a short slog till the vaccine can take hold.

But is it really going to get people back on side ? It’s likely we will see a spike, that will raise people’s criticisms of the govt policies. On top of that, there are many who have made sacrifices for festivals (Diwali was only a few weeks ago) who are now seeing this break for Christmas. It’s amateurish from the govt. make a decision. Either it’s safe to meet for the from the 2nd onwards or it’s not. I think people just want a bit more clear direction. 

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dsr-burnley

dsr-burnley

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Nod.E said:

At the risk of sounding a bit scrooge, is Christmas really important enough that we should sacrifice further weeks of lockdown and death because of it?

 

Just cancel it.

 

In a world that lockdowns are the norm, people aren't allowed to gym, golf, work in an office or shop without a mask. Just cancel it.

 

I mean what is Christmas? It is literally old people. Indoors with the rest of their family. Getting pissed and sloppy. For long periods. During winter. It's the perfect storm for it. Social distancing won't stand a chance.

 

Why have we bothered locking down to 'save lives, protect the nhs' if a meaningless holiday is exempt. We can't cancel Christmas because it will make santa sad, or Jesus sad, but we can shut down society, bankrupt whole generations and end businesses. Makes no sense to me.

 

For what it's worth, I do like Christmas. But don't we have our priorities in the wrong place if Christmas can go ahead but businesses and lives can't?

 

Just another example of this government acting based on what they think will be the popular move. 'We're cancelling Christmas' isn't going to win you a popularity contest. But it might save lives, if that's really what they've been interested in this whole time.

I think perhaps that is the point.  This version of lockdown is principally aimed at old people.  Working people can continue to go out to work and to socialise at work.  Old people are told to stay at home and not to socialise at all, not with anyone.  If Mrs Smith is alone in her house and has seen no-one for a fortnight, and Mrs Jones next door is alone in her house and has seen no-one for a fortnight, then Mrs Smith and Mrs Jones must keep apart for fear they will infect each other.  It makes no sense.

 

I know a lady who is celebrating her 100th birthday later this month.  except, of course, she isn't celebrating at all.  She is very depressed.  Poor sight and hearing mean she can't use the phone or watch TV, and she is not allowed to speak to anyone unless they stand apart in the cold and wet and shout at each other.  She can't go out, other people can't go in.  She is depressed.  And there must be many more like her.

 

It's easy to say Christmas is only for old people and old people don't matter enough to change our ways.  For 600,000 of them, this will be their last Christmas anyway.  (50,000 and more won't even get to Christmas this year.)  I don't know how well these government models are calibrated that they can assess exactly what the Covid rates will be on 24th December and exactly how it will impact on the future progress of the disease, but I would certainly like to see the numbers.  Both sets, in fact - the 10 day extension figures and the 25 day extension figures.

 

Here's some numbers.  The current best estimate of coronavirus infection in England is 1 in 80 people - 664,700 per government estimates as at 14th November.  About 40% of them know they have got it so will not be inviting grandma round for Christmas.  Which means that about 0.75% of households have got coronavirus in there.  Let's assume some grannies are interacting with more than one other household and call it a 1% chance that granny comes into contact with a coronavirus case.

 

So what are her chances of catching it?  According to a Detroit survey, in 14% of households everybody got it. in 41% nobody else got it. in 45% some got it and others didn't.  It's a fairly small scale survey, OK.  But let's assume a 50% chance of catching it from living with the Covid person for the full incubation period and symptomatic period.  Knock a bit off for not being there for the full period or for any symptomatic period.  Call it 25% chance (remember a lot of these visits will be 1 day only), but I bet that's on the high side.

 

How many people who get it, will die?  Here's the bmj figure, from last April - 7.8%

 

So let's translate it into numbers.  There are 3 million people over the age of 80 in this country.  If they all visit relatives, 30,000 of them will meet someone with coronavirus.  7,500 of them will catch it.  585 will die.  Call it 600 because it's a round number - it means 1 in 5,000 old people who go out for Christmas will die of cornavirus.

 

And this is the point of all this number crunching.  To provide context.  In an average year, about 300,000 old people (over 80) die.  10% of the over-80 population.  A 1 in 10 chance.  In any given week, 1 in 500.  In any given day, 1 in 4,000.  

 

Do old people have any ambition beyond breathing for as long as possible?  I think they do.  Just because they have little time left, does not mean that they are any happier than you or I would be if we were told that we must spend the rest of our lives in a comfortable prison cell with no visitors.

 

  If Grandma goes out for Christmas, she has a 1 in 5,000 chance of catching a disease that will kill her.  If she stays in for Christmas, she has a 1 in 4,000 chance that she will be dead before Boxing Day.

 

{Edit for links]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/20november2020

https://www.clickondetroit.com/health/good-health/2020/08/18/what-are-odds-of-covid-19-spreading-to-someone-in-same-household-as-infected-person/

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1327

 

Edited by dsr-burnley
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Costock_Fox

Costock_Fox

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Mickyblueeyes said:

But is it really going to get people back on side ? It’s likely we will see a spike, that will raise people’s criticisms of the govt policies. On top of that, there are many who have made sacrifices for festivals (Diwali was only a few weeks ago) who are now seeing this break for Christmas. It’s amateurish from the govt. make a decision. Either it’s safe to meet for the from the 2nd onwards or it’s not. I think people just want a bit more clear direction. 

The government will get criticism whatever the decision in this because there is no complete win on any of it.

 

As for having clear direction, If people can’t look at this and see it for what it is then that could be why we have some of the problems we do.

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Mickyblueeyes

Mickyblueeyes

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

The government will get criticism whatever the decision in this because there is no complete win on any of it.

 

As for having clear direction, If people can’t look at this and see it for what it is then that could be why we have some of the problems we do.

No doubt they’ll have critics and it’s difficult to be clear. However, telling us it’s all ok for 5 days next month is ridiculous. It’s reckless and it risks people simply ignoring future advice.

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RowlattsFox

RowlattsFox

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Mickyblueeyes said:

No doubt they’ll have critics and it’s difficult to be clear. However, telling us it’s all ok for 5 days next month is ridiculous. It’s reckless and it risks people simply ignoring future advice.

I doubt they'll say do what you want for 5 days, they'll still be restrictions of sorts of expect and they'll be mentions of use common sense and dont take risks etc. Then upto the general public to make their own decisions. Could be wrong of course and they'll be no rules for 5 days. Like it or not, people will see people at Christmas, I guess its an attempt to minimise it as much as possible.

 

With no schools and a lot of people not at work allowing minimal mixing of households shouldn't be too bad. Problem is when people go back to work and school in January I guess.

 

Opening pubs and non-essential shops would be riskier but I imagine you'd have to be in a lower tier for that to happen.

 

 

 

Edited by RowlattsFox
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Nalis

Nalis

Posted
Posted

Those against a 5 day cancellation of lockdown over Christmas are missing the point, mainly that if there are tier 2/3 style restrictions still in place then people will just break the rules anyway.

 

If there are some sensible rules around it, then the public would be likely to buy into it more.

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