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Coronavirus Thread

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17 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

The problem with mass testing is getting people to get tested without having symptoms. Especially with Christmas around the corner people would probably rather not risk getting tested and having to isolate. Especially if you can't afford to not work. 

 

Plus most will be suffering daily hangovers where they don't know their harris from their elbow. 

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One thing I’d be interested to know is the severity of the disease for people who did get Covid. ie, was there a lower % death or hospitalisation rate for the people who contracted it despite having the vaccine, or did that rate stay the same regardless. It may be that a vaccine could offer deeper protection than just a first line of defence, in which case I doubt people would mind an initial 70% rate.
 

But I might be barking up completely the wrong tree with that of course.

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2 minutes ago, Dunge said:

One thing I’d be interested to know is the severity of the disease for people who did get Covid. ie, was there a lower % death or hospitalisation rate for the people who contracted it despite having the vaccine, or did that rate stay the same regardless. It may be that a vaccine could offer deeper protection than just a first line of defence, in which case I doubt people would mind an initial 70% rate.
 

But I might be barking up completely the wrong tree with that of course.

I don't think you are barking up the wrong tree at all! My understanding of the aim of the oxford vaccine was to stop it progressing to the lungs which is obviously where the problems come in. 

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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/is-the-oxford-vaccine-less-good-than-others-not-necessarily-p9ffksnx5

 

Quote
When it comes to scientific glory, timing is everything. Three weeks ago Oxford’s announcement would have been the biggest story in the world: a vaccine developed in record time with significantly higher efficacy than expected.
Today, it is simply the third such vaccine and, on headline results at least, less good than the competition.
What we know from the data is that Oxford’s vaccine appears to prevent 70 per cent of symptomatic infections, compared with 95 per cent for the two vaccines already announced.
What we have hints of is that it may be even better if you use half for the first dose. Then, the scientists claim, it is perhaps 90 per cent effective.
There are theoretical reasons why this apparently counterintuitive finding might be correct. The immune system is immensely complex and lower initial doses could prime it more effectively. It is possible that the half dose may better mimic what happens in a real infection.
However, there are also statistical reasons to be sceptical. Today’s findings are based on an analysis of 131 infections. The analysis that produced the 90 per cent figure is based on a subset of that. Once you start slicing the data, you are making decisions on the basis of very few cases — and confidence is low. Yesterday, the Oxford team would not say how many cases they had in this group.
Does it matter? Simon Clarke, of the University of Reading, thinks that our obsession with these efficacy figures — treating the trials as if they were the vaccines’ exam results — is silly.
“There’s less virus swishing around in the population, which means far fewer infections than normal,” he said. “The numbers can’t possibly be reflective of what would happen under ‘wild’ conditions.”
Numbers like this are not a fixed property of the vaccine but the function of our behaviour. All these trials happened in a very strange world: a world of mask-wearers and elbow bumps. Those who did get infected probably did so in abnormal ways, taking in fewer viral particles than they would in a non-socially distanced time.
“These vaccines clearly work but I’m dismayed with the obsession over percentage efficacy,” Dr Clarke said.
The truth is, the value of a vaccine is not a single efficacy number. It is many efficacy numbers in many age and risk groups. It is also many other numbers we don’t yet know, such as the extent to which it stops transmission.
Some of the most important numbers have nothing to do with its effect in the body at all. For instance, 2-8C versus -80C: the refrigeration requirements of this vaccine compared with Pfizer’s. And three billion: the global supply planned for 2021.
In science there is no reward for second place. But this isn’t science; this is public health, and we need every vaccine we can get. The world is very far from being able to pick and choose.
This is why, in terms of its effect on Covid-19, today’s announcement is just as important now as it would have been three weeks ago.
The light at the end of the tunnel is getting a lot brighter. Today is a very good day.

 

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19 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-winter-plan

 

Link to the winter plan document if anyone is interested. Decent breakdown of what restrictions are in each tier, basically most things are open again apart from hospitality unless you can takeaway. I'd be surprised if many areas are tier 1.  

I#d be surprised if many areas are in tier two as well.  What's the difference between lockdown and the new tier three?  Not a lot.  

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4 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

I#d be surprised if many areas are in tier two as well.  What's the difference between lockdown and the new tier three?  Not a lot.  

Sports, gyms and shops are open even in tier 3. Not sure how you can want people to stay at home if all them are open. 

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58 minutes ago, Dunge said:

One thing I’d be interested to know is the severity of the disease for people who did get Covid. ie, was there a lower % death or hospitalisation rate for the people who contracted it despite having the vaccine, or did that rate stay the same regardless. It may be that a vaccine could offer deeper protection than just a first line of defence, in which case I doubt people would mind an initial 70% rate.
 

But I might be barking up completely the wrong tree with that of course.

The numbers are too small  to detect that yet  ( in all these trials).  The two Oxford trials total 23k and of that half received the placebo.  130 odd caught covid19, the majority of those were with the placebo.
 

No one with the vaccine was hospitalized but there would only have been about 30 positive cases on the vaccine  side.

Edited by Stivo
Correct figure
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Just now, String fellow said:

I have sympathy for the 'guinea pigs' who were given the placebo and then caught the virus. Presumably, everyone knew the situation before volunteering, but even so, I'd have been very miffed if it had happened to me.  

But as you say....you knew that signing up for it. You can't really be miffed when you know you're getting one or the other lol

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2 hours ago, Nalis said:

I quite like the idea that those in the new tier 3 will get the same mass testing as Liverpool to get tier 3 regions back down to tier 2 as quickly as possible. The rates seems to have fallen dramatically in Liverpool as a result of mass testing picking up a host of asymptomatic cases that may never have been captured.

Please don't mention that word. 

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4 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

The "two households" rule has been a bit of a bugbear all along with the "bubble" rules.  It means that if Mr Smith and Miss Jones live together and both have elderly parents, then one set of elderly parents can be treated with all care and attention while the other elderly parents must be totally shunned.

 

Well in that case,  an exception can be made for care and support needs if both sets of parents are vulnerable and need care.  If one set of parents are active and mentally fit then they may be able to understand the circumstances.   There are alternatives of course-  other family members,  care system (I recognise most of them are quite rubbish to be fair)  and so on.    I think your choices of words are tad dramatic :) 

 

However with all of that said,   there are a set of faults with every options-  none of them are perfect at all.    I also think rigid compliance to the rules is not always neccesary-  if your example have Mr Smith and Miss Jones as being only child with no alternative support etc then I would not really blame them mixing together for Chritsmas-  I am sure all of them can minmise their community activities in meanwhile to reduce the risk of transmission much as they can.    I just hope the government would provide a reasonable template for people to work from with understandable deviations if needed but I would not hold my breath.

Edited by The Blur
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1 hour ago, String fellow said:

I have sympathy for the 'guinea pigs' who were given the placebo and then caught the virus. Presumably, everyone knew the situation before volunteering, but even so, I'd have been very miffed if it had happened to me.  

Do you gamble on sports?

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4 hours ago, Super_horns said:

I presume anyone under 50 who is deemed vulnerable will get the vaccine?

They will, they already on the list, but remember is many people with undiagnosed conditions, and also vaccinating everyone is important for spread, since vaccination isnt 100% effective.

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3 hours ago, Nalis said:

I dont live in Leicester so I'm not as qualified to comment but the mentality of people might change if they know they have it and need to self isolate.

Thats if the problem is the mentality of people, its all too easy to speculate and judge others.

 

Ironically all the people I know who flouted rules dont live in Leicester.  Whilst everyone I know in Leicester has took it seriously.  The only people I know of flouting are those who have moved into the city from other areas as students.

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5 hours ago, Buce said:

 

I made no such demand. But don't expect me clap as they get rich and the poorer nations go without.

 

I would hope to see future decisions based on a sense of altruism and mutual benefit, but I expect that concept is beyond your comprehension.

Yeh..I mean we want to carry on Trekking & Hiking in the Poorer countries...they have to get the vaccine ASAP..:yesyes:

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11 minutes ago, UniFox21 said:

Peston asking for a guess at when we'll have "normal" life is poor journalism. Purely drawing a date out of them to then lambast them should it not be hit.

Yeah I'm not a fan of that - it's a wasted question when they get so limited time to ask anything.

No-one knows a specific day at this time, even with the positive vaccine news recently. It'd be naive of government or any politician to stick a date on a 'normal' life.

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1 hour ago, Chrysalis said:

Thats if the problem is the mentality of people, its all too easy to speculate and judge others.

 

Ironically all the people I know who flouted rules dont live in Leicester.  Whilst everyone I know in Leicester has took it seriously.  The only people I know of flouting are those who have moved into the city from other areas as students.

My experience is very different. I took my daughter to school last Friday where they ask parents to wear a mask on site. Quick count in playground 4 adults out of 16 wearing a mask. And some of those not wearing one standing together chatting. This lack of willingness to do their bit is why we are in such a mess. I also see it a lot in the local ASDA. Probably 1/5 not wearing a mask. All ages, all races. Just selfish ****ers all round. 
if those parents can’t show their kids how to behave for the good of society by wearing a mask for 10 mins I dread to think how they bring them up in general

will also add my eldest daughter has not been adhering to the guidance on a regular basis which has caused a lot of friction between us. 

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2 minutes ago, Super_horns said:

Maybe the vaccine won't be as fast as expected?

 

Not hoping for most vulnerable people to be vaccinated till Easter?

 

PM: 'Vast majority' of vulnerable people could get COVID vaccine by Easter (msn.com)

The claims of people being vaccinated at the start of December were always going to be wild predictions. I personally think we'll using the tiered system until at least April/May. Nothing pisses me off more than the claims from the Government, Professors, MPs or whoever about returning to normality by '*inserts random date here*. We've had back to normal by April 2020, then July, then October, then Christmas, now Spring or March. I know it's to do with giving people hope and stuff but it really annoys me, just feels like they're blatantly lying to us.

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