Coronavirus Thread

[String fellow]

10 hours ago, Otis said:

With

If you wish to be pedantic, then 'within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test' would have been more accurate. Btw, there was no need to use large letters.

[rachhere]

13 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Those against a 5 day cancellation of lockdown over Christmas are missing the point, mainly that if there are tier 2/3 style restrictions still in place then people will just break the rules anyway.

 

If there are some sensible rules around it, then the public would be likely to buy into it more.

I am not sure. Personally I would prefer to not travel to see people at Christmas but this will mean I will feel a pressure to do. Martin Lewis was running a poll yesterday and the majority of people were against these (rumoured) proposed measures because of the longer term implications.

[StanSP]

36 minutes ago, rachhere said:

And it seems 90% with a particular dosage? 

Yep. Tested on a large sample and UK has ordered 100m doses. So 50m people immunised. Along with the other 2 vaccines so far its looking promising but trying not to get too excited so early on... 

[Nalis]

3 minutes ago, rachhere said:

I am not sure. Personally I would prefer to not travel to see people at Christmas but this will mean I will feel a pressure to do. Martin Lewis was running a poll yesterday and the majority of people were against these (rumoured) proposed measures because of the longer term implications.

Probably just me but I'm always sceptical of polls like this though and say, the YouGov ones. Some people will say they are in favour of the public locking down as its seen as the right thing to say all while they meet eldery parent/grandparents after meeting mates in a non socially distanced environment beforehand.

 

But I see your point on the pressure to see people.

[rachhere]

1 minute ago, Nalis said:

Probably just me but I'm always sceptical of polls like this though and say, the YouGov ones. Some people will say they are in favour of the public locking down as its seen as the right thing to say all while they meet eldery parent/grandparents after meeting mates in a non socially distanced environment beforehand.

 

But I see your point on the pressure to see people.

Yeah I mean it's not representative as obviously Martin Lewis attracts a certain type of follower, but reading through the comments the overwhelming concerns were from business owners/employees who didn't know if they would survive another extended lockdown and just didn't see it worth the risk. It's like Boris was saying, the end is in sight but don't lets let down our guard and mess up all the hard work until now. People will always push the rules, so being so lenient on them seems a recipe for disaster. As mentioned above as well, getting people back down into lockdown mode afterwards is going to be really challenging. It's like when you have been on a diet but compromise and have a piece of chocolate...then you remember how good it is and before you know it the whole packet has gone! 

[Nod.E]

2 hours ago, UniFox21 said:

Wouldn't personally class anti-Semitism as a personality trait.

Boris is quite obviously a racist anyway so I'm not really sure what you're trying to achieve here.

[Nod.E]

7 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

I think perhaps that is the point.  This version of lockdown is principally aimed at old people.  Working people can continue to go out to work and to socialise at work.  Old people are told to stay at home and not to socialise at all, not with anyone.  If Mrs Smith is alone in her house and has seen no-one for a fortnight, and Mrs Jones next door is alone in her house and has seen no-one for a fortnight, then Mrs Smith and Mrs Jones must keep apart for fear they will infect each other.  It makes no sense.

 

I know a lady who is celebrating her 100th birthday later this month.  except, of course, she isn't celebrating at all.  She is very depressed.  Poor sight and hearing mean she can't use the phone or watch TV, and she is not allowed to speak to anyone unless they stand apart in the cold and wet and shout at each other.  She can't go out, other people can't go in.  She is depressed.  And there must be many more like her.

 

It's easy to say Christmas is only for old people and old people don't matter enough to change our ways.  For 600,000 of them, this will be their last Christmas anyway.  (50,000 and more won't even get to Christmas this year.)  I don't know how well these government models are calibrated that they can assess exactly what the Covid rates will be on 24th December and exactly how it will impact on the future progress of the disease, but I would certainly like to see the numbers.  Both sets, in fact - the 10 day extension figures and the 25 day extension figures.

 

Here's some numbers.  The current best estimate of coronavirus infection in England is 1 in 80 people - 664,700 per government estimates as at 14th November.  About 40% of them know they have got it so will not be inviting grandma round for Christmas.  Which means that about 0.75% of households have got coronavirus in there.  Let's assume some grannies are interacting with more than one other household and call it a 1% chance that granny comes into contact with a coronavirus case.

 

So what are her chances of catching it?  According to a Detroit survey, in 14% of households everybody got it. in 41% nobody else got it. in 45% some got it and others didn't.  It's a fairly small scale survey, OK.  But let's assume a 50% chance of catching it from living with the Covid person for the full incubation period and symptomatic period.  Knock a bit off for not being there for the full period or for any symptomatic period.  Call it 25% chance (remember a lot of these visits will be 1 day only), but I bet that's on the high side.

 

How many people who get it, will die?  Here's the bmj figure, from last April - 7.8%

 

So let's translate it into numbers.  There are 3 million people over the age of 80 in this country.  If they all visit relatives, 30,000 of them will meet someone with coronavirus.  7,500 of them will catch it.  585 will die.  Call it 600 because it's a round number - it means 1 in 5,000 old people who go out for Christmas will die of cornavirus.

 

And this is the point of all this number crunching.  To provide context.  In an average year, about 300,000 old people (over 80) die.  10% of the over-80 population.  A 1 in 10 chance.  In any given week, 1 in 500.  In any given day, 1 in 4,000.  

 

Do old people have any ambition beyond breathing for as long as possible?  I think they do.  Just because they have little time left, does not mean that they are any happier than you or I would be if we were told that we must spend the rest of our lives in a comfortable prison cell with no visitors.

 

  If Grandma goes out for Christmas, she has a 1 in 5,000 chance of catching a disease that will kill her.  If she stays in for Christmas, she has a 1 in 4,000 chance that she will be dead before Boxing Day.

 

{Edit for links]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/20november2020

https://www.clickondetroit.com/health/good-health/2020/08/18/what-are-odds-of-covid-19-spreading-to-someone-in-same-household-as-infected-person/

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1327

 

I agree with what you're saying. But that 600 of over 80s will be added to 70+ and 60+ and the odd obese 40/50+ and we'll be in the thousands.

 

Looking at the track record, that's enough to panic the population and the government into lockdown action. 

 

I agree it doesn't make sense to panic, but panic they will. So don't bother.

Edited 23 November 2020 by Nod.E

[Costock_Fox]

1 hour ago, Mickyblueeyes said:

No doubt they’ll have critics and it’s difficult to be clear. However, telling us it’s all ok for 5 days next month is ridiculous. It’s reckless and it risks people simply ignoring future advice.

In principle and an ideal world I completely agree but if you think people are following the restrictions by the book now im afraid you are mistaken. Look at the infection rate in Leicester since the lockdown start, it’s gone up not down.

 

If it’s like that at a normal time then Christmas will be worse so they are relaxing restrictions.

 

it will all be based on mathematical models. Say X infections = the NHS being overwhelmed and a certain % of them infections come from bars, restaurants, travel and schools then over Christmas non of these will be open so they will allow households to meet meaning infections still don’t rise above X.

 

 

[Chrysalis]

On 19/11/2020 at 22:43, Super_horns said:

Probably true - let's hope they don't start to clog up the NHS with Covid cases again leading to other medical issues being forgotten about or everyone having to shut down/shield. 

Already happening, my GP surgery still hasnt done face to face since march, it also currently is doing heavy triage on phone appointments, and the hospitals have massively reduced services.

[Chrysalis]

On 20/11/2020 at 15:44, Super_horns said:

Are there really people who haven’t seen their parents or grandparents for 9 months etc  ?

 

In the summer there was nothing to stop you meeting outside social distancing once the lockdown ended unless there was no way of doing that or you choose not to?

 

Are we talking about not being allowed in care homes which seems to have been a real disaster zone sadly.

I have not seen anyone but my younger sister since march, as yes I have followed the rules no matter how much I didnt agree all of them and didnt like it, I was only able to see my younger sister because I live on my own and thats my nominated bubble.  My parents (are not in a care home) and elder sister as well as wider family but under the rules I havent been allowed to see them since march.  I could have met for a short period at a hospitality venue but I consider that too risky so didnt do it.

 

Leicester has never allowed family meetups in homes even just one person visiting, our local lockdown forbade it all the way through and started before the summer ease off.

Edited 23 November 2020 by Chrysalis

[Chrysalis]

On 21/11/2020 at 11:09, Harrydc said:

Do people believe that if you don't take the vaccine, you should have your liberties taken away if you do? For example, going in to the supermarket, pubs etc. I've seen quite a few calling for this this on social media, and it baffles me that people would want to live in a world where you're being dictated to like that. 

 

Or do people believe you should be free to put whatever you want in to your body? 

 

 

It should be a choice, but dont be surprised if we start seeing things like travel bans for countries unless you have had the vaccine.

 

Personally I am going to get it as early as I can, I feel its madness to trust a deadly virus over a vaccine.

 

The problem is if we e.g. only had 30% take up, then the vaccine will be much less effective, its not just there to for those who are most at risk, but it is also there to prevent spread, remember it isnt 100% effective so 10-30% of those people who take it are still at risk, and that risk is mitigated by the spread been reduced by masses taking it.

[The Blur]

3 hours ago, rachhere said:

Yeah I mean it's not representative as obviously Martin Lewis attracts a certain type of follower, but reading through the comments the overwhelming concerns were from business owners/employees who didn't know if they would survive another extended lockdown and just didn't see it worth the risk. It's like Boris was saying, the end is in sight but don't lets let down our guard and mess up all the hard work until now. People will always push the rules, so being so lenient on them seems a recipe for disaster. As mentioned above as well, getting people back down into lockdown mode afterwards is going to be really challenging. It's like when you have been on a diet but compromise and have a piece of chocolate...then you remember how good it is and before you know it the whole packet has gone! 

 

Spot on-   I understand five days window is probably to allow for travel and contact with various people and so on but this just encourages the mentality to break little more rules during that window.    I would have thought two days window (24th/25th or even three days for 24th-26th) and mix of two households  would be more sensible if the government really want to go down that route.    This also make things difficult for people who are happy to be sensible but feel compromised by their families/external pressure.   My wife is 4 months pregnant now and will be around 5 months at Christmas.   It will be a nightmare for us to deal with the need for balance between our safety (and the baby) and the external pressure of Christmas etc. 

 

I do not think January lockdown is worth the mixing through Christmas for me-  it has been quite difficult to get through this one for me.   All goodwill/warm feelings from Christmas would evaporated within two weeks at most along with the boost to national morale once if the trade off is a prolonged lockdown.  

Edited 23 November 2020 by The Blur

[Kingleicester]

Leicester cases not going down ffs what is it with this place 

[foxile5]

4 minutes ago, Kingleicester said:

Leicester cases not going down ffs what is it with this place 

Multi-generational households that are likely mixing in spite of the lockdown. This will result in a boom in cases. In the city center, at least, there are tonnes of multi-generational households in close proximity. That would be my assumption.

 

Cheers,

 

Tom

[Jon the Hat]

When do we start the Thursday clap for massive multinational corporations and their incredible vaccine development programs which will save the world from Covid?

 

Edit:  And the greatest universities in the world who work stay that way by letting in the best and brightest.

Edited 23 November 2020 by Jon the Hat

[Super_horns]

59 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

I have not seen anyone but my younger sister since march, as yes I have followed the rules no matter how much I didnt agree all of them and didnt like it, I was only able to see my younger sister because I live on my own and thats my nominated bubble.  My parents (are not in a care home) and elder sister as well as wider family but under the rules I havent been allowed to see them since march.  I could have met for a short period at a hospitality venue but I consider that too risky so didnt do it.

 

Leicester has never allowed family meetups in homes even just one person visiting, our local lockdown forbade it all the way through and started before the summer ease off.

Ah yes sorry.

 

Forgot Leicester had stronger rules.

 

Hopefully you will be able to see them soon.

[Kingleicester]

21 minutes ago, foxile5 said:

Multi-generational households that are likely mixing in spite of the lockdown. This will result in a boom in cases. In the city center, at least, there are tonnes of multi-generational households in close proximity. That would be my assumption.

 

Cheers,

 

Tom

Utter embarrassment coming from Leicester this is, most places cases are going down, let’s go to Leicester we’re there actually rising wtf is up with the twats

[AllGoneTitsSchlupp]

5 hours ago, StanSP said:

70% effectiveness for Oxford vaccine 

 

open up fanclub 

[Finnaldo]

9 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

When do we start the Thursday clap for massive multinational corporations and their incredible vaccine development programs which will save the world from Covid?

 

Edit:  And the greatest universities in the world who work stay that way by letting in the best and brightest.

I’m sure plenty of those multinationals will get the profits for their reward, although I don’t see the same financial rewards for healthcare staff  (in balance, hats off to AstraZeneca for making it non-profit, and any other private company following similar paths)

 

And I fully agree we should be letting in the best and brightest, but I think you can only gain by encouraging those in underrepresented groups with the ability if there’s systemic issues holding them back. At the minute that’s primarily white male working class boys. The more talent we allow to prosper the better. 

[Buce]

13 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

When do we start the Thursday clap for massive multinational corporations and their incredible vaccine development programs which will save the world from Covid?

 

Edit:  And the greatest universities in the world who work stay that way by letting in the best and brightest.

 

When they announce it will be profit free and renounce all rights to the patent so poorer nations can make affordable generic copies?

[Mickyblueeyes]

1 hour ago, Kingleicester said:

Leicester cases not going down ffs what is it with this place 

I’m confused now. This suggests otherwise. I did see the tweet by LCC saying cases are on the rise which is why I am confused! 

[Jon the Hat]

18 minutes ago, Buce said:

When they announce it will be profit free and renounce all rights to the patent so poorer nations can make affordable generic copies?

 

They have delivered a vaccine because the economics work, and the your first reaction is to demand we break the model so any future decision makers won't want to make vaccine.  You couldn't make it up!!

[Buce]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

 

They have delivered a vaccine because the economics work, and the your first reaction is to demand we break the model so any future decision makers won't want to make vaccine.  You couldn't make it up!!

 

I made no such demand. But don't expect me clap as they get rich and the poorer nations go without.

 

I would hope to see future decisions based on a sense of altruism and mutual benefit, but I expect that concept is beyond your comprehension.

Edited 23 November 2020 by Buce

[dsr-burnley]

1 hour ago, The Blur said:

 

I would have thought two days window (24th/25th or even three days for 24th-26th) and mix of two households  would be more sensible if the government really want to go down that route.

The "two households" rule has been a bit of a bugbear all along with the "bubble" rules.  It means that if Mr Smith and Miss Jones live together and both have elderly parents, then one set of elderly parents can be treated with all care and attention while the other elderly parents must be totally shunned.

[Super_horns]

Vaccine for the under 50s or not ?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-vaccine-uk-matt-hancock-under-50s-b837533.html