Coronavirus Thread

[Leicester_Loyal]

227,977 vaccinations done today.

225,407 first doses. 2565 second doses.   https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

 

Lower numbers today but we must remember it was a Sunday. With all the new centres opening today, I reckon tomorrows numbers will be huge

[StanSP]

Over 4m first doses given. A big milestone reached very quickly. 

[worth_the_wait]

38 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Its a combination of both really butnlets be honest its only the minority of the public that have acted irresponsibly.

The trouble is, it's been too big a minority.

 

A couple of large surveys, by both the ONS and someone else, showed similar results.    Approximately 5% of the population have either taken absolutely no notice of the restrictions, or only made a token gesture of doing the absolute minimum.

 

That implies about 95% have been pretty good, which is a fantastic proportion.

 

But 5% of 68 million people is about 3.5 million.  And 3.5 million people not doing what the should is enough to spread an infection disease around a relatively small country, ...no matter what the Government does.

[Finnaldo]

 

4 hours ago, Col city fan said:

Just a shame the public aren’t going to be held to account in the same way isnt it?

The government have dropped some right clangers but if you are putting the sole blame for this mess squarely at their feet, you’re miles off

The catalogue of errors made by ‘the people’ during this pandemic should never be forgotten.

 

Sol touched on it but I don’t fully buy this ‘public to blame’ narrative. Is there a minority of the population that refuse to play by the rules? Yes. But we’re amongst the highest polled for willingness to take the vaccine (the one I saw was 80%, second only behind Thailand on 83%) and, though you could credibly contest whether they’re being truthful, a YouGov poll showed those polled believed they’ve followed the rules stringently. 
 

The countries that have had haven’t done  so necessarily out of 100% public compliance, but either reacted quickly shutting borders or putting measurements in place (Germany early doors and New Zealand/Australia) or did so whilst also had a recent history of outbreaks and pandemic (South Korea and Japan) so had a strategy to implement instantly. 
 

Whenever we’ve had a lockdown, we’ve had cases come down. In March co-operation was so excellent we got deaths down to double figures for months on end, and even last time in November with a new, highly infectious strain as well as schools and workplaces open the cases and deaths came down. I interpret that as when the rules are straightforward, the public have in the majority followed rules and we’ve got on the right track. When its muddied with numerous system changes, an initially weak tier system and schools staying open then issues arise and cases take an upward trajectory. 
 

To sum up, there’s  certainly a minority that have made it difficult, but I firmly believe the public in the main have responded very well. Countries that have done well have not had to rely too heavily because borders were shut and restrictions put in place before Covid could take a foothold. The government were too lax back in February/March, the Track & Trace system was a bit of a failure and the rush for a quick summer reopening including ‘Eat Out To Help Out’ which was directly linked to 1 in 5 cases at one time, and then the Christmas debacle and brinkmanship on school closures. There’s been visible governmental failures throughout, and I think that’s had more of an impact than the public that has its troublemakers but has remained largely compliant. 
 

However, I’d again point out they’ve done very well on the vaccine rollout. They knew they had to get it right and they’ve done the right thing deputising to the NHS and Army. I have to commend the big success that we did need. 

Edited 18 January 2021 by Finnaldo

[yorkie1999]

55 minutes ago, BKLFox said:

mainly because there are a-holes like this living among us, there are many other examples i can pull up from the past 2 days alone, people travelling 300miles for walks with a view, people travelling miles to parties, people holding the parties, people travelling from Scotland to Wales to visit friends, people going from Bolton to Preston to pick up a takeaway all reported in various news feeds, this is happening every w/end & probably most nights

 

but these take the biscuit

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-55705272

 

i will await the yeah but if Cummings hadn't done it, then..............
 

I think the problem comes down to it's impossible to police in this country. There's simply not enough coppers, and a similar problem has been created because there are simply not enough hospital beds. Why's that? Government cuts over the years and i suspect the reasons are the need, of channeling funds into other areas. Public sector pensions cost the taxpayer 42 billion quid a year! In addition to paying for a sector that doesn't make any money, where's that little lot coming from, the only place is by reducing other areas of public funding which are deemed as less necessary, or putting taxes up. 

[CosbehFox]

To give some context to the ‘blame public’ narrative, they believe in the cases of self isolation being ignored, that 70% of examples were people needing to go work or asked still to attend a workplace. 
 

Also the vaccination effort will be totally worth **** all if they can sort out the shambolic test and trace. If there’s an outbreak again, that service needs to be totally on it. Only have to look at the Aussies for that
 

 

Edited 18 January 2021 by Cardiff_Fox

[RowlattsFox]

I know it's a Monday and all that, but deaths below 600 today. What was it last monday? Feels like it's been more than 1000 each day for a while. Cases down as well. Progress at least.

[CosbehFox]

3 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

I know it's a Monday and all that, but deaths below 600 today. What was it last monday? Feels like it's been more than 1000 each day for a while. Cases down as well. Progress at least.

It’s more deaths than last Monday sadly 

[RowlattsFox]

1 minute ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

It’s more deaths than last Monday sadly 

 was hoping it was a sign of progress. Cases are down though at least.

[BKLFox]

2 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

I think the problem comes down to it's impossible to police in this country. There's simply not enough coppers, and a similar problem has been created because there are simply not enough hospital beds. Why's that? Government cuts over the years and i suspect the reasons are the need, of channeling funds into other areas. Public sector pensions cost the taxpayer 42 billion quid a year! In addition to paying for a sector that doesn't make any money, where's that little lot coming from, the only place is by reducing other areas of public funding which are deemed as less necessary, or putting taxes up. 

Very true Yorkie they have to rob Peter to pay Paul but we the gp must stand up and be counted, if we didn’t act like utter morons we wouldn’t need to be policed on the minor things leaving them to deal with the important stuff.
How many times do we hear “haven’t you got anything better to do, you should be out catching murderers etc that’s what my taxes pay you for” of course they should but can’t because of the idiots.

Same with hospital beds I’d imagine we have all seen the A&E, Ambulance style programs on tv how much time and beds (in a normal year) are being taken up with weekend binge drinkers, arses that have been in fights and self inflicted injuries due to said drink or stupidity & bravado, in the main it’s us the gp that are the drain on the nhs resources through our selfish acts.

 

Of course more funds are needed, in all sectors, but just imagine how much would be freed up by us the gp toeing the line and thinking before doing.

Edited 18 January 2021 by BKLFox

[Samilktray]

1 hour ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

To give some context to the ‘blame public’ narrative, they believe in the cases of self isolation being ignored, that 70% of examples were people needing to go work or asked still to attend a workplace. 
 

Also the vaccination effort will be totally worth **** all if they can sort out the shambolic test and trace. If there’s an outbreak again, that service needs to be totally on it. Only have to look at the Aussies for that
 

 

I live with 3 people who all tested positive and who all put me down for track and trace, I didn’t receive 1 call or email from track and trace. Mad really 

[fuchsntf]

3 hours ago, Col city fan said:

Just don’t think people who live in glass houses should throw stones

If you’ve, as much as you can, kept yourself safe, kept others safe, stuck at least mainly within the rules etc etc then you’ve got an argument to make. If you haven’t, you’ve not helped yourself or others and are equally as culpable as the government, I’d argue more so personally. What this pandemic has shown me are a few things. That some people are more daft and selfish than I thought they were, that people don’t take self responsibility anywhere near as seriously as they should and that they blame game’ is alive and well in the UK

There are some who have been amazing throughout.. the frontline NHS, the care workers, that old geezer who did all those laps on his Zimmer frame. There have unfortunately also been those who haven’t changed their behaviour and mindsets at all. That’ll also be something I’ll not forget going forward 

Looking from the outside back into the inside..Top honest post...

[Kopfkino]

 

This is a useful warning for those that think we can just get back on with things once the most vulnerable are vaccinated. The more virus you have circulating, the more chance you have of mutations that have the potential to put you back into a bit of a mess. This only reflects on antibodies, not t-cells, but it’s a clear warning that you still can’t take chances with having the virus circulating.

 

Really need to learn our lesson from last year. Use vaccinations and the changing season to drive cases right down, have an effective track and trace system, and have some control over reintroductions. And play our part in supporting middle and low income countries in getting populations vaccinated.

[dsr-burnley]

58 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

This is a useful warning for those that think we can just get back on with things once the most vulnerable are vaccinated. The more virus you have circulating, the more chance you have of mutations that have the potential to put you back into a bit of a mess. This only reflects on antibodies, not t-cells, but it’s a clear warning that you still can’t take chances with having the virus circulating.

 

Really need to learn our lesson from last year. Use vaccinations and the changing season to drive cases right down, have an effective track and trace system, and have some control over reintroductions. And play our part in supporting middle and low income countries in getting populations vaccinated.

There are several of this sort of theoretical study showing what might happen.  Why does the study not give some numbers - there are literally millions of confirmed coronavirus cases, and there are thousands of these specific variant cases - where are the numbers to say how many of the new cases have been identified, how many have had coronavirus before, and how many would be expected (based on averages) to have had coronavirus before?

 

If they would expect say 100 of the confirmed cases (on average) to have tested positive for coronavirus in the past, and the actual number is zero, then that would tell us something.  If the actual number is 100, that would tell us something.  So why isn't it quoted?  Until cases start occurring of people who have actually suffered reinfection, I am not going to worry unduly about the numbers who hypothetically might suffer but in practice aren't doing.

[BenTheFox]

7 hours ago, Finnaldo said:

 

 

Sol touched on it but I don’t fully buy this ‘public to blame’ narrative. Is there a minority of the population that refuse to play by the rules? Yes. But we’re amongst the highest polled for willingness to take the vaccine (the one I saw was 80%, second only behind Thailand on 83%) and, though you could credibly contest whether they’re being truthful, a YouGov poll showed those polled believed they’ve followed the rules stringently. 
 

The countries that have had haven’t done  so necessarily out of 100% public compliance, but either reacted quickly shutting borders or putting measurements in place (Germany early doors and New Zealand/Australia) or did so whilst also had a recent history of outbreaks and pandemic (South Korea and Japan) so had a strategy to implement instantly. 
 

Whenever we’ve had a lockdown, we’ve had cases come down. In March co-operation was so excellent we got deaths down to double figures for months on end, and even last time in November with a new, highly infectious strain as well as schools and workplaces open the cases and deaths came down. I interpret that as when the rules are straightforward, the public have in the majority followed rules and we’ve got on the right track. When its muddied with numerous system changes, an initially weak tier system and schools staying open then issues arise and cases take an upward trajectory. 
 

To sum up, there’s  certainly a minority that have made it difficult, but I firmly believe the public in the main have responded very well. Countries that have done well have not had to rely too heavily because borders were shut and restrictions put in place before Covid could take a foothold. The government were too lax back in February/March, the Track & Trace system was a bit of a failure and the rush for a quick summer reopening including ‘Eat Out To Help Out’ which was directly linked to 1 in 5 cases at one time, and then the Christmas debacle and brinkmanship on school closures. There’s been visible governmental failures throughout, and I think that’s had more of an impact than the public that has its troublemakers but has remained largely compliant. 
 

However, I’d again point out they’ve done very well on the vaccine rollout. They knew they had to get it right and they’ve done the right thing deputising to the NHS and Army. I have to commend the big success that we did need. 

Excellent post. I can't help but think that people are riled up by media images and articles of people not complying with the restrictions but the truth is, millions of people sat at home complying isn't newsworthy.

[SystonFox]

Had the Pfizer vaccine yesterday. 1st dose. Front line worker. Arm feels tired as I’ve slept on it all night other than that no other side effects ; yet

[st albans fox]

6 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

There are several of this sort of theoretical study showing what might happen.  Why does the study not give some numbers - there are literally millions of confirmed coronavirus cases, and there are thousands of these specific variant cases - where are the numbers to say how many of the new cases have been identified, how many have had coronavirus before, and how many would be expected (based on averages) to have had coronavirus before?

 

If they would expect say 100 of the confirmed cases (on average) to have tested positive for coronavirus in the past, and the actual number is zero, then that would tell us something.  If the actual number is 100, that would tell us something.  So why isn't it quoted?  Until cases start occurring of people who have actually suffered reinfection, I am not going to worry unduly about the numbers who hypothetically might suffer but in practice aren't doing.

The issue being that there wasn’t any effective testing in the first wave. So the millions that had it then have no evidence (apart from a possible subsequent antibody test) that they’ve been infected before. 
 

and as most in the first wave had it in March/April, a lot of these will have lost their antibody immune response so an antibody test post the summer will reveal little. they may well have a less severe experience the second time ref T cell response etc but they do become infectious and do suffer. I know this via my missus

 

our household experience says that those in their teens and twenties seem to retain their immunity better than those in their fifties. Also that those males who had a strong dose will retain immunity for 9 months at least 

[Col city fan]

We now have the highest number of Covid related deaths, per capita, in the world

And are in the top 5 for cumulative deaths in the world

A very very sad set of stats

[Sampson]

1 hour ago, Col city fan said:

We now have the highest number of Covid related deaths, per capita, in the world

And are in the top 5 for cumulative deaths in the world

A very very sad set of stats

Where did you see that?

 

Ive been using worldometer throughout the pandemic and they seem pretty reliable and they have us 8th on deaths per capita. Behind San Marino, Belgium, Slovenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Italy and Gibraltar.

[bovril]

14 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Where did you see that?

 

Ive been using worldometer throughout the pandemic and they seem pretty reliable and they have us 8th on deaths per capita. Behind San Marino, Belgium, Slovenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Italy and Gibraltar.

Highest 7 day average I think. 

 

[Christoph]

The thing is with our stats is surely the way the government calculates death must have an impact? If a covid death counts as anyone dying within 28 days of a positive test then you would assume there has to be a chunk of people in those numbers who didn't die from covid? Mind you even if you took that number off I still think we'd be amongst the top countries but i wonder if we would be at the very top. 

[Col city fan]

1 hour ago, Sampson said:

Where did you see that?

 

Ive been using worldometer throughout the pandemic and they seem pretty reliable and they have us 8th on deaths per capita. Behind San Marino, Belgium, Slovenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Italy and Gibraltar.

Sky news this am 

[Sampson]

47 minutes ago, bovril said:

Highest 7 day average I think. 

 

Ahh ok that makes sense.

[yorkie1999]

8 minutes ago, Col city fan said:

Sky news this am 

Wonder what their viewing figures have been through all this.

[Izzy]

44 minutes ago, Christoph said:

The thing is with our stats is surely the way the government calculates death must have an impact? If a covid death counts as anyone dying within 28 days of a positive test then you would assume there has to be a chunk of people in those numbers who didn't die from covid? Mind you even if you took that number off I still think we'd be amongst the top countries but i wonder if we would be at the very top. 

I still don't get this. Surely you either die from Covid or you don't? (or maybe it's not that straight forward )

 

I mean surely if you get tested positive for Covid one day and get ran over and killed by a bus the next, it's not counted as a Covid death?