2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[ronnup]

Just can't see this happening now. We might get something from spurs, but I can see us easily losing to Chelsea and Man U. 

[Pliskin]

1 minute ago, st albans fox said:

It’s amazing that five of the title winning side are still in and around this squad. how they cannot get some mental strength into the others is baffling. 
 

makes you wonder who was really the backbone of 15/16 ......... clearly Brendan can’t hold a candle to Claudio when it comes to the mental side of the game .....

There’s no doubt Claudio was key in keeping the group together. His attitude was the perfect tonic to the players we had and the moment we were in.

 

We can be a positive as we like, but we all know we don’t stand a chance, I genuinely can’t believe we’ve ****ed it again. We had to beat two of the leagues weakest sides..... and we failed spectacularly. 
 

Im dreading the next few weeks. It’s going to be miserable, and angry. 

[FoxInTheBirstallBox]

54 minutes ago, Eskay said:

To the people saying the next 2 fixtures are very winnable.....have you been in a coma the last 2 weeks?

 

Chelsea just smashed Real Madrid to get to the champs league final. They are not worried about Leicester showing up. Trust me. 

 

Not won at old Trafford since the Tony Cottee days. 

 

The 2 very winnable games were 10 man Southampton and Newcastle. We didn't pay a glove on either. We don't deserve champions League. 

Not being funny but did you see real Madrid? 

They were worse than what we were last night.

 

This season we've beaten all of the "top six" and most were quite convincingly too. I'd rather be holding the lead than chasing it.

[Foxes96]

I’m just glad we got 2 goals back. Could come down to goal différence now and when we were 4-0 down I feared the worst. 
 

Maybe playing the big guns will suit us, as we’ve struggled to break teams down recently and looked i credibly vulnerable on the counter ie. palace, West Ham, Newcastle to name a few. 
 

We’d seemingly decided that we needed 9pts+ from our last 4 and then next to nothing from the next 3. But it works out the same if we can pick up the points in the next couple now that we’ve dropped some in the last 2. It’s still in our hands and the teams around us won’t all pick up maximum points. Ohh and we need 2 of them to overtake us to miss out. It’s not over until it’s over. 4 points from 3 games should still do it and that’s just over a point per game barely above relegation form. 

[KrefelderFox666]

We really need to get something on Tuesday, preferably all 3 points. Chelsea will comfortably beat us. Against Spurs we have a chance.

 

I think we will get to the Spurs game needing a win.

[Nalis]

Could do with West Ham (v Everton) and Spurs (v Leeds) dropping points this weekend, Liverpool drawing or losing to Southampton would be great too but thats probably asking too much.

 

Part of me thinks Chelsea will probably finish 3rd at this stage anyway so as much I hope that drop points, I dont think it really matters too much.

[davieG]

Our only hope it that these teams wont come with a view to parking the bus and playing on the break, they'll be more space at the back for us and we'll be more compact at the back as well be forced to defend deeper where we will be less vulnerable to the type of goals we've been conceding. 

 

 

[chapero82]

We need 2 wins and I can’t see where one is coming from 

[Pliskin]

We can’t defend. And that’s the biggest problem. We concede too easily. United will smell blood as will Chelsea. There’s absolutely no way we’re turning this round now, it would take an absolute miracle to get anything. It would require a strength greater than the great escape, and we don’t have that in us.

 

Only hope we have is West Ham, Liverpool and Spurs lose every game from now, which just won’t happen. It’s funny, it’s out of our hands despite us still being third.

[maynefox]

It's gone. I was very worried when we couldn't even beat 10 men Southampton. Now I've checked out. I'm looking forward to the final! But these remaining games, I'll watch them with but zero expectations apart from us coming 5th or maybe even 6th. If the players can't be arsed and are not relishing this challenge, then I can't.

 

Bring on Saturday, win or lose I'll be having a few!

[FrankieADZ]

looking back on things, we cant just look at the running and our last few games being tough, if we'd a got a few more points at home we wouldnt be in the uncomfortable position we are now,

losing 8 home games just isnt good enough for me, while the away is pretty good, those dropped home points will certainly cost us imo 

[fazzyfox]

I think we'll need 4 points, hopefully Spurs will be in a position on the final day where Europa League is secured but Champions League not possible which means watching Everton's next couple of results, perhaps we'll get a point at Old Trafford and beat Spurs.

 

Chelsea will see their fixture against us as their three points ie if they're within 1 or 2 points of us by then it'll leapfrog us, it's in their own hands as far as they're concerned.

 

Could hinge on the Utd line up, we'll get a clue when we see the line up vs Villa but still we're not talking about stale old reserves coming in it could be the likes of Mata, Van De Beek, Greenwood etc.

 

After last night though the thought of keeping Kane, Son and Bale quiet on the final day when we made Newcastle look like Barcelona and possibly without Evans is far from straight forward.

 

Will anyone else up there get a result like our Newcastle one, Liverpool losing to Southampton? Probably not. Get a feeling Chelsea's visit to Man City won't be as tough as it is for most, two weeks ago I would say Man City Win no question but not so sure now. 

[Lesta2014]

Woke up today more annoyed than last night. Awful attitudes from some last now. Proper messed up again, and they be the first ones leaving because we don’t have champions league!

[wardyfox86]

32 minutes ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

We really need to get something on Tuesday, preferably all 3 points. Chelsea will comfortably beat us. Against Spurs we have a chance.

 

I think we will get to the Spurs game needing a win.

And we all know how we perform when the pressure is on. 

[chapero82]

3 minutes ago, fazzyfox said:

I think we'll need 4 points, hopefully Spurs will be in a position on the final day where Europa League is secured but Champions League not possible which means watching Everton's next couple of results, perhaps we'll get a point at Old Trafford and beat Spurs.

 

Chelsea will see their fixture against us as their three points ie if they're within 1 or 2 points of us by then it'll leapfrog us, it's in their own hands as far as they're concerned.

 

Could hinge on the Utd line up, we'll get a clue when we see the line up vs Villa but still we're not talking about stale old reserves coming in it could be the likes of Mata, Van De Beek, Greenwood etc.

 

After last night though the thought of keeping Kane, Son and Bale quiet on the final day when we made Newcastle look like Barcelona and possibly without Evans is far from straight forward.

 

Will anyone else up there get a result like our Newcastle one, Liverpool losing to Southampton? Probably not. Get a feeling Chelsea's visit to Man City won't be as tough as it is for most, two weeks ago I would say Man City Win no question but not so sure now. 

No way will 67 points be enough 

[wardyfox86]

2 minutes ago, chapero82 said:

No way will 67 points be enough 

Factoring in expected goal differences, it would leave Everton needing maximum points and a huge goal swing, Liverpool needing 13 from 15, Spurs needing 11 from 12 and West Ham needing 10 from 12.

 

It might just be enough, where we get them though is the hard part. 

[Eskay]

1 hour ago, FoxInTheBirstallBox said:

Not being funny but did you see real Madrid? 

They were worse than what we were last night.

 

This season we've beaten all of the "top six" and most were quite convincingly too. I'd rather be holding the lead than chasing it.

We aren't real Madrid. We wouldn't have beaten that team. 

 

And yes we have had some great results against the big teams .....but much earlier in the season when the stakes were nowhere near as high. 

 

[Ric Flair]

9 hours ago, Gerard said:

Amazingly we're still odds on for top four believe it or not with an implied 52% chance.

 

Trying to look at any positive I can find if Man Utd beat Villa on Sunday they'll go 7pts clear of us with a game in hand and virtually cease to be a threat to their 2nd place which means they're more likely to rest their first XI against us. We still have points in the bag compared to our rivals and possibly very winnable fixtures in Man Utd (a) & Tottenham (h). It's not over till it's over.

It's not over u till its over but for life of me I can't remember teams qualifying for the top 4 at the death that are busy getting thraped at home to Newcastle. Likewise I don't see us having the mental capacity to turn up at Wembley and take the trophy we so badly want. 

 

It's exactly at times like this when it reaches a crisis that there's no one in the club that can evoke a change that can turn it quickly. 

 

We can all hope and pray and kid ourselves but I don't see how we do? That formation as it stands with the players we have available and/or in form is so easy for teams to nullify.

 

The real cause for concern is he won't then change it, won't try and piece together a 4-2-3-1 with more ammunition out wide and instead further looks to congest the middle of the park in the oppositions half which with a high defensive line is like curry to a pisshead for counter attacking opposition. Those 2 Wilson goals were astonishingly easy and the hallmarks of a team and system that are broken.

 

He now has to quickly swallow his pride and look to change things. I know it's not ideal but we have to try and get 2 wingers on the pitch in Albrighton and if he refuses to use Ünder then at least get Perez there and push Maddison up off the shoulder of Iheanacho. Vardy has to be dropped, he knows it himself as well and yet Rodgers belief that he has to always be on the pitch because he's a goalscorer is the comfort zone he has to get out of in this crisis. 

 

Ricardo can't be in contention to play either, he isn't a professional footballer right now. It feels like we are playing with 3 players on form, it's groundhog day from last season.

[FrankieADZ]

25 minutes ago, fazzyfox said:

Could hinge on the Utd line up, we'll get a clue when we see the line up vs Villa but still we're not talking about stale old reserves coming in it could be the likes of Mata, Van De Beek, Greenwood etc.

 

OGS has said hes more than likely going to ring the changes for one of the matches, which i suspect will be the one against us tbh, since I cant imagine someone like OGS wanting to put out a weaker team against one of their big rivals so to speak

 

only grain of hope i have is we are playing the next 3 away from the KP

[Finn Claw II]

Wining easy games on paper isn’t easy.   Those chasing us can’t afford to slip up.

 

i don’t really have any faith in us or the teams below us going on winning streaks so who knows

 

I’d happily take going in the Spurs game knowing a win will mean top 4.

 

 

[Steve Earle]

I take no pride in having correctly predicted 7 points from those four 'winnable' games. The awful thing isn't the points return, but the shift in momentum and the mental scars that look like they can't heal. I've been one of those criticising others for misuse of the word 'bottle' until now. There's no other word for last night's catastrof**k.

 

But I remind myself that I also predicted between 2 and 5 points from the last three, though not factoring a major injury. Three or four points should do it...

[oxtonfox]

1 hour ago, FoxInTheBirstallBox said:

Not being funny but did you see real Madrid? 

They were worse than what we were last night.

 

This season we've beaten all of the "top six" and most were quite convincingly too. I'd rather be holding the lead than chasing it.

We're like a puppy looking up at his owner inviting him to take the lead. There's every chance we end up 7th this season with Spurs overtaking us in the last game. 

[OrielCaziado]

12 minutes ago, FrankieADZ said:

OGS has said hes more than likely going to ring the changes for one of the matches, which i suspect will be the one against us tbh, since I cant imagine someone like OGS wanting to put out a weaker team against one of their big rivals so to speak

 

only grain of hope i have is we are playing the next 3 away from the KP

Our performance last night actually makes it more likely United play the weaker team against us now. They will feel they can beat us with a second string side and certainly won’t fear getting an embarrassing scoreline  against them which they could get against a rampant Liverpool. 

[Ricey]

We’ll look back at this season and we’ll look back at 8.10pm on 30th April.

 

7 points clear with 80 minutes to play against an injury hit, out of form Southampton team with 10 men. A chance to go 10 clear with 4 matches to go, the first being Newcastle at home.

 

If you aren’t going to take an opportunity like that then you don’t deserve it. 

[UniFox21]

Frankly, I think we've blown it.