Corona Virus

[FerrisBueller]

The main hospital in Copenhagen has shut down its Corona Virus ward as it was hardly being used anymore. Tiny country so not really comparable, but good news!

[Vlad the Fox]

I wonder if anyone can help me with some information regarding furlough. The other half is contracted two days a week then she works two as extra hours/over time. Will she get paid 80% of her contracted hours (two days) or 80% of her full hours (four days). I’ve got all my bills going out over the next couple of weeks so I am just trying to work out what’s what. Thanks.

[Strokes]

19 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Wouldn’t  it be captain sir Tom? ?????  Honest question ...

I’m going for Sir Tom the captain.

[Manini]

9 minutes ago, Vlad the Fox said:

I wonder if anyone can help me with some information regarding furlough. The other half is contracted two days a week then she works two as extra hours/over time. Will she get paid 80% of her contracted hours (two days) or 80% of her full hours (four days). I’ve got all my bills going out over the next couple of weeks so I am just trying to work out what’s what. Thanks.

I think (think, by no means certain so verify) but I think she would be entitled to 80% of her contracted hours from the government and then it would be at her companies discretion as to if they wanted to top it up to 100% of her contracted hours. I don’t think the furlough scheme covers bonus/overtime as it would be hard to calculate who actually does what hours and when but as I said maybe verify elsewhere. 

Edited 18 April 2020 by Manini

[st albans fox]

10 minutes ago, Vlad the Fox said:

I wonder if anyone can help me with some information regarding furlough. The other half is contracted two days a week then she works two as extra hours/over time. Will she get paid 80% of her contracted hours (two days) or 80% of her full hours (four days). I’ve got all my bills going out over the next couple of weeks so I am just trying to work out what’s what. Thanks.

As I understand it, if she works the two days overtime on a regular basis then she should get 80% of the four days. If it’s irregular overtime then I think the average over the past year is used. 
 

EDIT: I see two different answers ! I just checked and think I’m right 

Edited 18 April 2020 by st albans fox

[Vlad the Fox]

Just now, st albans fox said:

As I understand it, if she works the two days overtime on a regular basis then she should get 80% of the four days. If it’s irregular overtime then I think the average over the past year is used. 

Yes it’s regular, apart from the school holidays where she only works the two days. which is why she does it like that so she can have the time with the kids during the holidays. 

[Facecloth]

16 minutes ago, Vlad the Fox said:

I wonder if anyone can help me with some information regarding furlough. The other half is contracted two days a week then she works two as extra hours/over time. Will she get paid 80% of her contracted hours (two days) or 80% of her full hours (four days). I’ve got all my bills going out over the next couple of weeks so I am just trying to work out what’s what. Thanks.

Its changed, I posted about it yesterday. Originally it was based on her basic, but now it's based on average earnings. So her overtime will be taken into account. Providing of course that her employer is aware of the rule change.

[Vlad the Fox]

3 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

Its changed, I posted about it yesterday. Originally it was based on her basic, but now it's based on average earnings. So her overtime will be taken into account. Providing of course that her employer is aware of the rule change.

Thanks, yes, i knew I’d read something on here somewhere yesterday but couldn’t remember where to find it. Hopefully they are aware otherwise she’ll be about 50% down. 

[Guest Fktf]

1 hour ago, BKLFox said:

For the love of god, to do test and containment we would still be testing into 2022 for god sake how many times does 50k, best weekly case, go into 66m+

 

The difference in every country is there of cause it is and 1 point you mention yourself in the way things are recorded or is the UK the only affected country in the world reporting hospital deaths alone?

Another example would be the amount of foot traffic a country gets in relation to another, there are many variables it’s not cut n dry that’s what I’m saying.

 

Yeah.. But for the love of god, I didn't say anything about test and containment. I was talking about suppressing the spread from the early cases. You don't need tests to do that. 

 

I understand what you're saying about differences between countries, but the data just don't support that idea that these variables have much effect on the spread of the virus. Presumably there's quite a few differences we could name between us, France, Italy, Spain, yet we're all following a similar path. 

 

I think Belgium are the odd one out with reporting deaths, and most EU countries are reporting only hospital deaths. But don't hold me to that, I've not checked. 

[Spudulike]

1 hour ago, yorkie1999 said:

Taking the parachute of is not that advisable if your only half way down!

That's exactly my point!!!

[EastAnglianFox]

Similar numbers today then with a similar amount of tests performed, hoping every day to see these numbers start to drop just for anything sodding positive to grab hold of

[foxile5]

The amount of people walking about outside my front room window is staggering. 

 

It's as though it's a busy weekend going on in

Town. 

[st albans fox]

20 minutes ago, EastAnglianFox said:

Similar numbers today then with a similar amount of tests performed, hoping every day to see these numbers start to drop just for anything sodding positive to grab hold of

just out for my walk and seems to be a lot of vehicles on the roads compared with the past week.

 

I guess if the govt are happy with a slight uptick on people being out and about re their modelling then we won’t see any changes but if they aren’t then we may see an extension of the restrictions as lockdownitis begins to take hold and people venture out - another sunny week ahead ....

Edited 18 April 2020 by st albans fox

[filbertway]

There's probably more people that are deciding to leave the house for a walk or just to clear their head.

 

A lot of people probably thought, 3 weeks. I can do that, but with the extension and realisation that this might go on longer. People are gonna have to get out the house for their own mental wellbeing. Even if it's just for a drive.

 

We're (generally) sociable beings aren't we. People will try and safely get out and agree to see friends or family on a walk or something. I imagine the vast majoirty are still keeping their distance from each other.

 

As long as people aren't taking it too far, I personally see no problem with it. I imagine behind closed doors, the authorities don't see it as too much of a problem. If they came out and said "it's cool to go and meet your mates or family as long as you keep a safe distance" the general public would do the same thing and try to push the limits of what's acceptable.

 

 

I'm not sure if that's going to make any sense as I went off on a train of thought and got lost haha.

 

 

- Edited to say, personally I have left the house 4 times in the past 4 weeks. Each time to go to the local shop. I just understand all people are different and the vast majority of people will be doing all they can to do the right thing, while also making sure they don't lose their heads.

Edited 18 April 2020 by filbertway

[reynard]

44 minutes ago, EastAnglianFox said:

Similar numbers today then with a similar amount of tests performed, hoping every day to see these numbers start to drop just for anything sodding positive to grab hold of

Well if you want to clutch at the smallest of straws. The actual number of new infections fell by a very small number from the day before but the actual number of people tested was 3000 higher than the same day last week.

However, first time 2 consecutive days have seen over 5500 new infections. PPE still not in the right place and a mere 79000 more tests to do each day to hit the 100k target there is a lot of work to do.

Not helped by the police themselves flooding out to clap the NHS workers and allowing crowds to build up.

Still I expect we'll get to see the usual bloody graph showing the wonderful decline in traffic and transport use.

Long way to go yet.

Edited 18 April 2020 by reynard

[murphy]

58 minutes ago, EastAnglianFox said:

Similar numbers today then with a similar amount of tests performed, hoping every day to see these numbers start to drop just for anything sodding positive to grab hold of

The numbers will plateau first, which it is doing.  Deaths will be the last number to start falling after new cases and hospital admissions.

[MrsJohnMurphy]

3 hours ago, Izzy said:

 

@Trav Le Bleu

[reynard]

7 minutes ago, murphy said:

The numbers will plateau first, which it is doing.  Deaths will be the last number to start falling after new cases and hospital admissions.

I'm might be wrong but the numbers of new infections are increasing every day yet the afternoon briefings seem to indicate that hospital numbers (especially IC beds) are falling. So is that because those being tested and found to be positive are less serious cases than before?  Or are we getting better at treating people? Genuine questions.

[Trumpet]

8 minutes ago, reynard said:

I'm might be wrong but the numbers of new infections are increasing every day yet the afternoon briefings seem to indicate that hospital numbers (especially IC beds) are falling. So is that because those being tested and found to be positive are less serious cases than before?  Or are we getting better at treating people? Genuine questions.

It could be because we’re testing more  (are we testing more? - I’ve been trying not to follow the news as much recently!) and like you’ve mentioned, a good number of these could be less serious cases that are being captured.

 

 

[murphy]

10 minutes ago, reynard said:

I'm might be wrong but the numbers of new infections are increasing every day yet the afternoon briefings seem to indicate that hospital numbers (especially IC beds) are falling. So is that because those being tested and found to be positive are less serious cases than before?  Or are we getting better at treating people? Genuine questions.

Maybe it's because we are testing more and catching those with mild symptoms which don't need to be hospitalised?

 

 

edit - beaten to it by Mr Trump.

Edited 18 April 2020 by murphy

[st albans fox]

just had a look at NHS England website which breaks down daily death numbers so it’s possible to see where we are re the daily death rate 

 

April                               5.        6.       7.       8.       9.       10.      11.      12.      13.      14 

 

Total deaths recorded. 678.   660.    736.   799.   703.   656.    693.    630.     597.   593

Total 1st four days       560.    557.    634.   709.   611.   579.   637.    589.     566.    579

 

obviously total deaths are dropping as we get closer to current date as less historic data is available - there are new deaths reported each day going back more than two weeks.

 

it looks like we peaked around the 8th but there is no really significant drop beyond the first couple days thereafter and there will be some small additions to make to these.  We certainly appear to have plateaued around the 600 daily deaths figure in England. The scientists will be wanting to see this drop off as the next couple of weeks go by but the experience of Italy/Spain is that this could prove tough to go below 400/500. 
 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

[st albans fox]

5 hours ago, st albans fox said:

These antibody tests have been questioned though .....however, the scientists here were of the opinion at one time that each death recorded probably reflected 1000 cases in the community.  That would put the total cases here approx 15m.  (Approx 20% of the population).  I would certainly expect that more than 10% of the population have had it although the could well be skewed towards the Home Counties and London as lock down further north was with the virus at an earlier stage.  That makes the risk of relaxation much worse in those northern/midland areas with lower numbers.  The second wave would presumably be worse in these areas ? (Which includes e. Midlands)

Jenrick just indicated that the actual number who have had the virus is likely to be single figure percentage (as per details given to him by the CSO)  rather than the figure from a few weeks ago which would be the 20% I referenced above 

[PaddyS]

Interesting from the World Economic Forum -

 

'Viet Nam shows how you can contain COVID-19 with limited resources'

 

"To date, Viet Nam has had no fatalities as a result of the pandemic."

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/vietnam-contain-covid-19-limited-resources/

[filbertway]

39 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

just had a look at NHS England website which breaks down daily death numbers so it’s possible to see where we are re the daily death rate 

 

April                               5.        6.       7.       8.       9.       10.      11.      12.      13.      14 

 

Total deaths recorded. 678.   660.    736.   799.   703.   656.    693.    630.     597.   593

Total 1st four days       560.    557.    634.   709.   611.   579.   637.    589.     566.    579

 

obviously total deaths are dropping as we get closer to current date as less historic data is available - there are new deaths reported each day going back more than two weeks.

 

it looks like we peaked around the 8th but there is no really significant drop beyond the first couple days thereafter and there will be some small additions to make to these.  We certainly appear to have plateaued around the 600 daily deaths figure in England. The scientists will be wanting to see this drop off as the next couple of weeks go by but the experience of Italy/Spain is that this could prove tough to go below 400/500. 
 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Are these recorded where Covid is the cause of death, or is it all people that have died who tested positive for Covid?

[st albans fox]

4 minutes ago, filbertway said:

Are these recorded where Covid is the cause of death, or is it all people that have died who tested positive for Covid?

People who died in hospital and tested positive for CV-19 ..... one would expect that the vast majority who die and test positive for the virus have died because of the virus