Coronavirus Thread

[Lionator]

I’ve just seen a news article suggesting that a minimum of 37 people who attended the Man Utd Man City game on March 8th, died from the virus and that those cases could be traced back to that fixture. If so then that’s staggering for so many reasons. 

[WigstonWanderer]

3 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

That’s right, but the only knowns that you can input into a model is the population, the amount tested, the amount positive/negative and the amount that die. From that you get the R value.

Sorry mate, I just don’t think that’s right. What do you mean by population? The amount that die has nothing to do with the R number, but is to do with the fatality rate.
 

They’d have ways of correcting for the rate of testing and would need to estimate both the true rate of new infections and the underlying number of infections at large in the community. I’d imagine this is done by fitting epidemiological models to actual observed data, and the value obtained would be subject to a range of uncertainty. Beyond that, I don’t know.

 

I can imagine epidemiologists sniggering a little when we lay people argue about the finer points of a subject they’ve spent years studying and researching 

Edited 7 June 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[brucey]

5 hours ago, simFox said:

London

Didn’t realise there were that many people protesting in the UK as well. 
 

Posted this in the Gray thread but worth a read -
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1269395225228664832.html

[Guest Harrydc]

The reason for the protests are justified and I agree things need to change, however the timing of all this couldn't have been any worse. I believe that there will unfortunately be a second peak. However, I'd hate to see all the blame be put on the protestors. People have been going to the beach for weeks now, meeting in large groups etc.

[yorkie1999]

29 minutes ago, Harrydc said:

The reason for the protests are justified and I agree things need to change, however the timing of all this couldn't have been any worse. I believe that there will unfortunately be a second peak. However, I'd hate to see all the blame be put on the protestors. People have been going to the beach for weeks now, meeting in large groups etc.

but at least there was some form of control. 

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, Harrydc said:

The reason for the protests are justified and I agree things need to change, however the timing of all this couldn't have been any worse. I believe that there will unfortunately be a second peak. However, I'd hate to see all the blame be put on the protestors. People have been going to the beach for weeks now, meeting in large groups etc.

 

Yes, it's good to keep some perspective over this.

 

However justified the cause, the nature of the protests doesn't seem wise - and nor does crowding on a beach. But the expert on Marr said the estimate is now that 1 in 1000 people are infected - and we know that the virus spreads less outdoors than indoors. So, while unwise, any one gathering isn't going to cause a massive spike......but the cumulative effect of multiple gatherings and a more relaxed attitude to social distancing could have a less dramatic but long-term impact.

 

We've started relaxing (both Govt and people) when we still have 5000+ new infections and 200-ish deaths per day, an r rate believed to be just under 1 and tracing/isolation system that is probably unfit for purpose as yet.

 

Particularly given that a lot of people are still being very cautious, that suggests to me that a massive spike is unlikely for now - but that the impact of relaxation and multiple mass gatherings could be that all those figures stay stubbornly close to where they are now, or maybe inch up slightly. So we could be looking at a scenario where, for weeks or months, we continue to have 5000+ new infections and 200+ deaths per day and an r rate close to, or maybe sometimes above 1.....while we struggle to get a workable tracing/isolation system (all the more difficult given how high the numbers remain).

 

Of course, if that scenario does come about, it will also have an economic impact. Some people will be blase but a lot will see such figures as a reason not to travel or to go on holiday or to go out socially or to go shopping....all impacting demand and potentially causing businesses to close. The countries that have handled this the best have not adopted this half-baked approach. They've got infection rates down much, much lower than 5000 per day before unlocking and have ensured they've got a viable tracing system - meaning that they've only faced small localised spikes that they've been able to control quickly.....while life generally returns to something like normal. It's as if, as a country, we've decided that 200 deaths per day is acceptable - and, anyway, it's not likely to be us that die..... 

[Rain King]

Anyone been for a drive-thru test?

Mrs has been coughing well since Friday. Just managed to book her in for a test this afternoon.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

59 minutes ago, Harrydc said:

The reason for the protests are justified and I agree things need to change, however the timing of all this couldn't have been any worse. I believe that there will unfortunately be a second peak. However, I'd hate to see all the blame be put on the protestors. People have been going to the beach for weeks now, meeting in large groups etc.

The beach thing is no where near as bad as it's being made out, I saw it in person both days last weekend. It's very easy to take a long lens camera and take a photo arching down Bournemouth beach to make it look packed. It was no where near as full as the media and the screeching masses on Twitter would have you believe. Will admit that Durdle Door was a disgrace though but they've closed the road and carparks again there now. 

[Benguin]

1 hour ago, Harrydc said:

The reason for the protests are justified and I agree things need to change, however the timing of all this couldn't have been any worse. I believe that there will unfortunately be a second peak. However, I'd hate to see all the blame be put on the protestors. People have been going to the beach for weeks now, meeting in large groups etc.

Why is it that if you are against the protest, you are for people flocking to the beach? 

 

Anyone breaching the regulations is a will puller and responsible for how bad things have got and are going to get. Not the government, not the left, not the right; but all of the arse holes not obeying social distancing. I feel just as outraged by pictures of bezches as I do by protests. 

[CosbehFox]

2 hours ago, Benguin said:

Why is it that if you are against the protest, you are for people flocking to the beach? 

 

Anyone breaching the regulations is a will puller and responsible for how bad things have got and are going to get. Not the government, not the left, not the right; but all of the arse holes not obeying social distancing. I feel just as outraged by pictures of bezches as I do by protests. 

Poster hasn't said that - just said the blame shouldn't be focused solely on protesters. 'all the blame'. 

 

Personally feel that the sections of the public have failed the nation and the rest of the population. I got told on Thursday that I need to take a paycut. So sat down and done the maths - okay but I can't afford any more of a cut than I have been offered. The longer the public don't comply and start being sensible, the longer the economy (lockdown or no lockdown) goes south. 

 

I made the point to my OH last night - it's going get to a point where the UK is one of the remaining countries in Europe with such an infection rate. The rest of Europe will be allowed holidays, football crowds whilst we remain in this slow, slow, slow climbdown and show zero respect for the older generations. 

Edited 7 June 2020 by Cardiff_Fox

[Guest Harrydc]

Another massive situation could be those VE day celebrations. I witnessed people around my area literally doing a conga. I don't know if they believe it can't spread if you're not facing each other? 

[bovril]

Just now, Harrydc said:

Another massive situation could be those VE day celebrations. I witnessed people around my area literally doing a conga. I don't know if they believe it can't spread if you're not facing each other? 

The response to Covid-19 has been half arsed from a lot of the public. Now it seems that a slim majority of people no longer give much of a shit at all. Just have to hope other factors keep the cases low for now.

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, Harrydc said:

Another massive situation could be those VE day celebrations. I witnessed people around my area literally doing a conga. I don't know if they believe it can't spread if you're not facing each other? 

VE would have fed Into new cases and probably an increase in hospital admissions by now - it’s four weeks on ...... my ignorant view is that it’s probably quite difficult to catch this thing outdoors unless you’re sat right next to someone for a fair while  ....

[Lionator]

5 hours ago, pds said:

Anyone been for a drive-thru test?

Mrs has been coughing well since Friday. Just managed to book her in for a test this afternoon.

Went a few weeks ago, it's really efficient at Birstall if that's the one.

 

Hope she's all well.

[StanSP]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52956223

 

Scotland report no deaths in 24 hours. First time it's been zero since March.

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52952686

 

This is almost cartoonish.

[Crinklyfox]

The Centre for Disease Control in the USA conducted a survey during May and recently issued guidelines as a result of its findings, which were that a significant number of people in the USA were misusing household products in an attempt to prevent Covid-19 infection.

 

19% of those surveyed admitted to using bleach to clean food

18% admitted to using household cleaning and disinfectant products on their skin

10% admitted to 'misting' their body with a cleaning or disinfectant spray

6% admitted inhaling vapours from household cleaners or disinfectants

4% admitted to drinking or gargling diluted bleach solutions, soapy water and other cleaning and disinfectant solutions

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e2.htm?s_cid=mm6923e2_w

 

Beggars belief.

[Jon the Hat]

20 hours ago, Harrydc said:

The reason for the protests are justified and I agree things need to change, however the timing of all this couldn't have been any worse. I believe that there will unfortunately be a second peak. However, I'd hate to see all the blame be put on the protestors. People have been going to the beach for weeks now, meeting in large groups etc.

There is literally no comparison between going to the beach - I have several times and like literally everyone else maintained social distancing at all times - and gathering in a mass protest.  None.  Why do people keep doing this?

[Jon the Hat]

19 hours ago, Benguin said:

Why is it that if you are against the protest, you are for people flocking to the beach? 

 

Anyone breaching the regulations is a will puller and responsible for how bad things have got and are going to get. Not the government, not the left, not the right; but all of the arse holes not obeying social distancing. I feel just as outraged by pictures of bezches as I do by protests. 

If people went to the beach and broke any rules they were probably doing it at home anyway.  I've been to the beach 3 times and it was fine.

[StanSP]

 

[Benguin]

29 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

If people went to the beach and broke any rules they were probably doing it at home anyway.  I've been to the beach 3 times and it was fine.

I am completely for people going wherever if its compliant with social distancing. My point is that I've seen a lot of comments about "don't blame the protests for a spike, blame people flocking to the beach" I think anyone not social distancing, be it at the beach or in a protest is to blame. 

[Christoph]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

 

Kinda jealous how they have such a normal and competent leader. 

[fox_up_north]

3 hours ago, Crinklyfox said:

The Centre for Disease Control in the USA conducted a survey during May and recently issued guidelines as a result of its findings, which were that a significant number of people in the USA were misusing household products in an attempt to prevent Covid-19 infection.

 

19% of those surveyed admitted to using bleach to clean food

18% admitted to using household cleaning and disinfectant products on their skin

10% admitted to 'misting' their body with a cleaning or disinfectant spray

6% admitted inhaling vapours from household cleaners or disinfectants

4% admitted to drinking or gargling diluted bleach solutions, soapy water and other cleaning and disinfectant solutions

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e2.htm?s_cid=mm6923e2_w

 

Beggars belief.

I would be very interested to know how Trump's "drink bleach" statements affected that

[leicsmac]

7 minutes ago, fox_up_north said:

I would be very interested to know how Trump's "drink bleach" statements affected that

Significantly, I would guess.

[SouthStandUpperTier]

3 hours ago, Crinklyfox said:

The Centre for Disease Control in the USA conducted a survey during May and recently issued guidelines as a result of its findings, which were that a significant number of people in the USA were misusing household products in an attempt to prevent Covid-19 infection.

 

19% of those surveyed admitted to using bleach to clean food

18% admitted to using household cleaning and disinfectant products on their skin

10% admitted to 'misting' their body with a cleaning or disinfectant spray

6% admitted inhaling vapours from household cleaners or disinfectants

4% admitted to drinking or gargling diluted bleach solutions, soapy water and other cleaning and disinfectant solutions

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e2.htm?s_cid=mm6923e2_w

 

Beggars belief.

And they're only the ones who are still alive to take the survey.