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sylofox

Maguire to Man Utd / Man City

By sylofox, in Transfer Talk

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Detroit Blues

Detroit Blues

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, rachhere said:

It's nice counting the potential money and all, but if selling means we compromise on qualifying for Europe and also on league places, is it really that much profit in the long-run? I was open to selling at the start of the transfer window, but we needed a decent preseason with whoever came in instead, and that's just not happened. If he really was a priority for Man U, they should have got in there far earlier. Time to shut the door on this one. Sorry Big H. 

When you do the math it might not make economic sense. Let's assume we sell Maguire late in the window, and do not have time to secure a replacement (and get him up to speed) until next summer:

 

Based on @Xen

80m - 17m = 63m profit. (The £17m is ours to keep)

15% of 63m = 9.45m sell-on fee to Hull

80m - 9.45m = 70.55m into Leicester's coffers.

 

Then let's say the difference in keeping Maguire vs losing him is finishing 6th vs 10th (My personal assumption):

 

Prize Money 

6th - £28.5million

10th - £20.9million

Difference = £7.6million

 

So £70.55M

Reduced by £7.6M in prize money (6th vs 10th place finish)

= £62.95M

 

 

Facility Fee (money earned from # of TV matches)

Big 6 clubs host more TV games than other 14 clubs, regardless of what happens in the table, but each additional TV appearance was worth about £1.13M. Let's assume Leicester are on TV 4 more times minimum = £4.5M


£62.95M

Reduced by £4.5M in Facility Fees (6th vs 10th place finish)

= £58.45M

 

Europa League

Finishing 6th would qualify us for the group stage:

Participation Bonus €2.6 million (Guaranteed) for each 40 teams who play in the group stages
Performance Bonus  €570,000 for every win & €190,000 for a draw
Group Stage Bonus €1 million to group winners and €500,000 for group runnerups

At minimum, we'd be looking at £2.3M just for showing up and losing each game of the group stage. At best, we'd make £6.43M for winning the group (and each game).

If we continued a run through the Europa League, it would be possible to win up to £20-30M in the competition.

 

But let's just be conservative, and say we won £5M in the Europa League, including the prize money, the ticket sales, the extra merchandise, etc.

 

£58.45M

Reduced by £5M  in Europa League money

= £53.45

 

So that £53M is what we'd have to spend to replace a premier league, international team quality centerback. Meanwhile, we just wasted a year of having Maddison, Vardy, Tielemans, etc. all under a manager like Brendan Rodgers. 

 

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That_Dude

That_Dude

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Abrasive fox said:

My understanding is two major stumbling blocks, most of which won't surprise anyone:

1. The fee, it is not agreed, theres still some considerable distance.

2. The payment terms, man utd want to incentivise a lot of it.

 

Man utd are really confident it will get done, like theres plans already for his unveiling. I think they think theyll either agree the fee and it'll be heavily incentivised, or they'll pay more up front and get it agreed.

 

I'm pretty sure we're not up for that, however Maguire's agent is pushing very very hard and Maguire is indeed quite keen, he'll virtually triple his wages.

 

I think it'll get done. I also dont think Tarkowski or Dunk will be the replacement.

Thank you very, very much for this insightful post. The first in a very long time.

 

I also do think that we won't see him in a Leicester shirt next season but will get paid handsomely (my wild guess is something like 80M + add-ons in whatever form). I never thought that he'll be here for more than 3 seasons and bear him no ill grudges if he goes.

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Les-TA-Jon

Les-TA-Jon

Posted
Posted

We should only sell if the figure and structure of the deal is correct AND if he actively wants to leave. Especially this late in the window. 

 

Whats the point in selling for £80m+, strengthening a direct rival, weakening our team, losing our best central defender and signing a sub par replacement for £30-50m!? 

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richieboy

richieboy

Posted
Posted

Maguire from reports is losing patience with the club. i assume losing patience with Man U because it seems they have known all along how much Leicester want and keep stalling on the amount and either wont or don't want to pay what Leicester want. If they wont pay then tough he stays. 

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Dahnsouff

Dahnsouff

Posted
Posted

For no other reason than I am curious. Does anyone know what the original bid was? And if a higher/different second bid followed?

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49er

49er

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Detroit Blues said:

When you do the math it might not make economic sense. Let's assume we sell Maguire late in the window, and do not have time to secure a replacement (and get him up to speed) until next summer:

 

Based on @Xen

80m - 17m = 63m profit. (The £17m is ours to keep)

15% of 63m = 9.45m sell-on fee to Hull

80m - 9.45m = 70.55m into Leicester's coffers.

 

Then let's say the difference in keeping Maguire vs losing him is finishing 6th vs 10th (My personal assumption):

 

Prize Money 

6th - £28.5million

10th - £20.9million

Difference = £7.6million

 

So £70.55M

Reduced by £7.6M in prize money (6th vs 10th place finish)

= £62.95M

 

 

Facility Fee (money earned from # of TV matches)

Big 6 clubs host more TV games than other 14 clubs, regardless of what happens in the table, but each additional TV appearance was worth about £1.13M. Let's assume Leicester are on TV 4 more times minimum = £4.5M


£62.95M

Reduced by £4.5M in Facility Fees (6th vs 10th place finish)

= £58.45M

 

Europa League

Finishing 6th would qualify us for the group stage:

Participation Bonus €2.6 million (Guaranteed) for each 40 teams who play in the group stages
Performance Bonus  €570,000 for every win & €190,000 for a draw
Group Stage Bonus €1 million to group winners and €500,000 for group runnerups

At minimum, we'd be looking at £2.3M just for showing up and losing each game of the group stage. At best, we'd make £6.43M for winning the group (and each game).

If we continued a run through the Europa League, it would be possible to win up to £20-30M in the competition.

 

But let's just be conservative, and say we won £5M in the Europa League, including the prize money, the ticket sales, the extra merchandise, etc.

 

£58.45M

Reduced by £5M  in Europa League money

= £53.45

 

So that £53M is what we'd have to spend to replace a premier league, international team quality centerback. Meanwhile, we just wasted a year of having Maddison, Vardy, Tielemans, etc. all under a manager like Brendan Rodgers. 

 

We have already wasted three years of Vardy and two of Mahrez since we won the Premier League. Let’s hope with Brendan at the helm we will see a serious assault on the top six as opposed to a battle to finish above the likes of Bournemouth and Burnley

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Dahnsouff

Dahnsouff

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Micky said:

70 million from both United and City.

Not all up front though I assume? Sorry for all the questions, but has there been any 2nd bids?

Edited by Dahnsouff
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49er

49er

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, treer said:

If we sell Mags, it weakens us for qualifying for europe.

Losing Mags could cost us very important points

City should have an add on whereas if we miss europa by less than 4 point £20m

less than 7 points, and they pay us £10m

I think our success will be more dependent on the likes of Tielemans, Maddison, Ricardo and Chillwell having outstanding seasons. If that happens our emphasis will be more on attack than defence. Since Harry has been here our defence hasn’t improved and it has been our weak point. No disrespect to Harry but he’s not a top notch defender. I would far rather lose him than Vardy

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UpTheLeagueFox

UpTheLeagueFox

Posted
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Posted
5 minutes ago, 49er said:

 Since Harry has been here our defence hasn’t improved and it has been our weak point. No disrespect to Harry but he’s not a top notch defender. I would far rather lose him than Vardy

If you'd said at the end of last season we'd lose Maguire (and presumably sign a replacement) but keep Chilwell, Maddison (+Vardy) and get Tielemans on a permanent and bring in Perez too, I think most fans would've been delighted with that kind of business.

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treer

treer

Posted
Posted (edited)

Agree with all that 49er, except i would put them all about equal, lose any of them and it will cost us points.

That's why we should have tha adds on for lost points, in the utd and Harry situation

 

Edited by treer
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SheppyFox

SheppyFox

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

If you'd said at the end of last season we'd lose Maguire (and presumably sign a replacement) but keep Chilwell, Maddison (+Vardy) and get Tielemans on a permanent and bring in Perez too, I think most fans would've been delighted with that kind of business.

Yes. I’d still love another winger/attacking midfielder & striker mind you :) 

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49er

49er

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, treer said:

Agree with all that 49er, except i would put them all about equal, lose any of them and it will cost us points.

That's why we should have tha adds on for lost points, in the utd and Harry situation

 

it would be great to keep everyone   but 80m cannot be sniffed at . Harry has only been here two seasons when we have been mediocre. In terms of feeling bad about someone moving on he’s nowhere close to the likes of Kante and Mahrez

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