Corona Virus

[Lionator]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

There is an interesting article in the spectator today about whether Covid-19 is actually any worse than the flu... We are counting deaths in a way almost intended to exaggerate the numbers, and as someone else pointed out, the overall death rate is actually lower than this time last year.  The numbers are barely moving the needle.  It will be interesting to see how this pans out.

If you have an unlimited healthcare system, I think it’s pretty much unanimous that this has a less 1% death rate. The issue is we don’t and neither does any other country and I think politicians have been clear as to why the lockdown is taking place. To ensure that hospitals aren’t overwhelmed. 
 

The good thing about a low death rate is that moving forward this will all be over quicker but I’m getting worried about all of these overreaction articles popping up. 5000 people dying in a week in a first world country of a single cause is a cause for concern. 

[st albans fox]

3 minutes ago, BKLFox said:

 

They having a laugh:-

 

After single facial touch sparks exponential spread of new-flu virus, global civil unrest & societal breakdown ensue leaving CDC to seek a cure in prophetic thriller CONTAGION 9pm - ITV2  

 

 

 

 

Great film and now we’re locked down I guess it’s ok to show it ........... or is it ??

[Lionator]

Supposedly 46% of people who tested positive on the diamond princess recovered without ever suffering any symptoms. Likewise 50% of those who have tested positive in Iceland recovered without any symptoms. It’s insane. There’ll be people reading this post who have it/have had it and will never know. That’s why we stay home. 

[Jon the Hat]

1 hour ago, z-layrex said:

That's because the health services haven't been overwhelmed yet. Speaking for where I work, we have multiple COVID wards now for the less sick and elderly who aren't appropriate for critical care. We have all of our ICU's full (FIVE), parts of theatres has been turned into an ICU and is full of COVID, with 2 more ICU's created and ready to go. Staff will unfortunately be looking after 2 or 3 (or more) sedated & ventilated patients at once when usually it's 1 nurse to 1 patient. Our doctors are on a war time rota and the nurses are working extra shifts.

 

x2 London trusts have already declared critical. We haven't even begun to peak yet.

 

Flu doesn't do this, even swine flu was nothing like this. If everyone does their bit, and with the extra capacity being created by the government, things should be ok in the long run.

Yes indeed - all good points. 

 

Keep up the good work!  I think we are all incredibly impressed with the response of the NHS workers, plus those who are volunteering to come back.

[Finnaldo]

1 hour ago, BKLFox said:

They would if the information they were receiving was changing hourly

Whether workers are or aren’t going to work isn’t something that changes hourly though, that’s something that the government should decide on. 

[lgfualol]

3 hours ago, Finnaldo said:

Cheers for the info, so in terms of elderly they’re more set out like the UK? 

From my experience, yeah. There are tons of apartment complexes where I live for older folks.

[FoxesDeb]

5 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

Whether workers are or aren’t going to work isn’t something that changes hourly though, that’s something that the government should decide on. 

Based on what exactly, if not on the guidance of the best experts they have available to them? 

[Facecloth]

Still seeing driving instructors giving lessons. This really should be easy to police, and needs to stop.

[BKLFox]

6 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

Whether workers are or aren’t going to work isn’t something that changes hourly though, that’s something that the government should decide on. 

Did he change his mind on that particular point within the hour then?

[Sampson]

29 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Supposedly 46% of people who tested positive on the diamond princess recovered without ever suffering any symptoms. Likewise 50% of those who have tested positive in Iceland recovered without any symptoms. It’s insane. There’ll be people reading this post who have it/have had it and will never know. That’s why we stay home. 

The death rate in Iceland is 0.2% currently. In Germany its 0.5%. In Thailand which was one of the first countries to get it its 0.3%. Chris Whitey seemed to suggest he was pretty confident the death rate is much less than 1% in reality and more around the 0.5% mark.

 

Hopefully they are more like the actual death rate of this thing once we test everyone and find out who had it and didnt even know.

 

Obviously it's going to be different in places like Lombardy and Wuhan though where the healthcare systems got overloaded by everyone having it at the same time.

 

That's why we need to stay home and flatten the curve either way. The data modeling suggests it could be the difference between 500,000 deaths in the UK and <20,000 if we drip-feed the virus into the population so there's enough care for everyone, rather than it all coming in at once.

Edited 26 March 2020 by Sampson

[Happy Fox]

2 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

Still seeing driving instructors giving lessons. This really should be easy to police, and needs to stop.

So no driving with passengers?

[HankMarvin]

36 minutes ago, BKLFox said:

 

They having a laugh:-

 

After single facial touch sparks exponential spread of new-flu virus, global civil unrest & societal breakdown ensue leaving CDC to seek a cure in prophetic thriller CONTAGION 9pm - ITV2  

 

 

 

 

No it’s been being watched by millions prior to ITV showing it, it’s well up the popular charts on IMDB as is 28 days later

 

 

“Contagion becomes one of most-watched films online in wake of coronavirus pandemic

Prescient film is currently second most popular Warner Bros film online”

 

Edited 26 March 2020 by HankMarvin

[HankMarvin]

9 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

There has been no back tracking. There was always a plan, and we were aware from the very beginning that all the things that have happened, would happen, at some stage. 

People who don't get that weren't listening. 

Or maybe you don’t understand the difference between a plan of action one week and contradicting what was said days later

[Blarmy]

7 minutes ago, Happy Fox said:

So no driving with passengers?

Passengers you don’t live with. 

[Happy Fox]

1 minute ago, Blarmy said:

Passengers you don’t live with. 

Thanks for clarifying, so public transport; taxis, buses are exempt?

[Facecloth]

11 minutes ago, Happy Fox said:

So no driving with passengers?

You're allowed out with people that you live with, so that no problem. But they are saying we can't visit friends and family, we can't meet up outside, and must keep 2 metres apart. So basically letting someone from another household sit a foot away in an enclosed space, handling all the car implements, and then the instructor jumps I'm a drives that car straight after surely is breaking all those rules.

Edited 26 March 2020 by Facecloth

[Happy Fox]

Just now, Facecloth said:

You're allowed out with people that you live with, so that no problem. But they are saying we can't visit friends and family, we can meet up outside, and must keep 2 metres apart. So basically letting someone from another household sit a foot away in an enclosed space, handling all the car implements, and the the instructor jumps I'm a drives that car straight after surely is breaking all those rules.

Yes true you are right! I guess a lot of people are flaunting the rules. Are taxis and buses  exempt?

[stripeyfox]

1 minute ago, Facecloth said:

You're allowed out with people that you live with, so that no problem. But they are saying we can't visit friends and family, we can't meet up outside, and must keep 2 metres apart. So basically letting someone from another household sit a foot away in an enclosed space, handling all the car implements, and then the instructor jumps I'm a drives that car straight after surely is breaking all those rules.

Yes, and I don't think Driving Instructors can be regarded as key workers really.

[Facecloth]

Just now, Happy Fox said:

Yes true you are right! I guess a lot of people are flaunting the rules. Are taxis and buses  exempt?

I would assume they are a vital service to get key workers to work, driving lessons aren't.

[Crinklyfox]

I've noticed a more upbeat mood on this thread today.  The numbers of deaths yesterday was lower than expected and there seems to be a theory that those who have died were probably near the end of their lives anyway.  I don't believe that.

 

The virus is having a devastating effect on the vulnerable, especially it seems those with suppressed immune systems.  Anyone undergoing chemotherapy falls into that category.  Cancer can be suppressed or beaten in many cases with the right strategy, and dying of Covid-19 is likely to shorten the lifespan of many cancer sufferers by more than a few months.  IMO it's far to early to be taking the view that 'everything will be all right'.  If that happens nationally then people will start to ignore social distancing causing many more untimely deaths.

[Kopfkino]

39 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Supposedly 46% of people who tested positive on the diamond princess recovered without ever suffering any symptoms. Likewise 50% of those who have tested positive in Iceland recovered without any symptoms. It’s insane. There’ll be people reading this post who have it/have had it and will never know. That’s why we stay home. 

Being asymptomatic when tested ≠ never having symptoms. I'm pretty sure it was 18% on the Diamon Princess that reported never having symptoms

[Lionator]

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/
 

An interesting article from the guy who is in charge of the U.K. government modelling. He says that the data suggests the outbreak is happening a lot faster than expected and that the virus is more contagious than they first predicted. The average person will infect over 3 people whereas a few weeks ago they thought it was 2.5. Suggests the next few weeks will be rough but hopefully it’ll be easier to manage going forward. 

[yorkie1999]

42 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Supposedly 46% of people who tested positive on the diamond princess recovered without ever suffering any symptoms. Likewise 50% of those who have tested positive in Iceland recovered without any symptoms. It’s insane. There’ll be people reading this post who have it/have had it and will never know. That’s why we stay home. 

That's also why we urgently need tests to determine if we've had it.

[Lionator]

3 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

Being asymptomatic when tested ≠ never having symptoms. I'm pretty sure it was 18% on the Diamon Princess that reported never having symptoms

 I just picked the 50% from this dataset I saw on twitter (twitter being a massively reliable source 😉)

[StanSP]

1 hour ago, Izzy said:

Just bagged myself 2 x 24 rolls this morning (we were down to our last 4).

 

I imagine this is what it feels like to win the lottery. 

 

I'll ask. 

Why did you need 2 lots of 24?