Corona Virus

[fuchsntf]

4 hours ago, TamworthFoxes said:

I think it has been handled fairly well. Which ever party were in would have followed advice from experts. 
The thing I think it has shown is that a hell of a lot of people are idiots. From the hoarders to the people who still refuse to listen to the very clear advice. Ultimately there is nothing you can do with people that thick.

In terms of your friend who works as an artificial pitch tester, if his boss is trying to make him work then he has got a shit boss and he needs a new job when this is over. That is not Boris or the government’s fault I’m afraid.

It seems that people want it spelling out to them individually ie they expect Boris to come on stage and say ok today we are going to explain it to Shiela from 39 High Street in Nuneaton, right Shiela you work in a chip shop so don’t attend work, your mom is 82 so don’t visit her etc etc. People need to do a bit for themselves here.

People seem to get mixed up with the fact that the government strategy is to manage nhs capacity to cope as best as possible and cut deaths.  The ultimate fact is if you are elderly or ill and you catch it there is a good chance you will die. Nothing the government can do to change that.

Whether Boris,the Govt. W.H.O,or any Government & Organisation leaders have been well balanced,ignorant incompetent or idiots,or have hidden Agendas,..

We wont know that until a later date....The Governments,The G7 groups,always know more than they give out...The media is ran by various Groups & lobbies,

so they to will have their own under- the- Surface agendas.

 

Recent history also shows, What any experts  Broadcast & predict,can be taken with a Pinch of salt....

I am an upbeat ,optimistisch Person and fatalist...with that cynical East midlands character in my DNA....So I believe Everything & nothing....

The Governments & Financial  organisations less than most.....

 

Though I agree,that those Type "Shiela" Attitudes and what we Joe public should be doing is alot more capable thinking for ourselves....

Modern man prefers to sit on his arse ,and Blame everybody Else and everything,instead of just getting on with it.....

Or you have the Criminal elements, & Dell-boy heroes,who just want to shit over everybody....!!!

 

Edited 26 March 2020 by fuchsntf

[UPinCarolina]

If it makes you all feel any better, at least Boris isn’t hoping to mark Eastertide and Christ’s resurrection by likely sending sending thousands of the faithful to meet Him.

[murphy]

57 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

 

If people want to argue Boris has done fine then that’s their opinion, I’ve stated why I think the government’s response was poor and I’m not going to insult people on that basis, I never have. 
 

I WILL pick up on people who are insulting the character of the many concerned on the government total scattershot of a policy. Absolutely everyone has taken pick at policy from miscommunication to total U turns and the to frame those with dissenting as cowards and aren’t to be trusted is bang out of order. I dislike people who take it up themselves to be political commissars.

But I never said most of that 

 

You have taken it upon yourself to interpret my whingers and gripers comment as being directed at anybody who might question the government.  Not my intention, perhaps I could have been more clear. 

 

There is a certain type of person that just consistently batters the government at every turn  regardless of the circumstances.  People that will assume the most cynical of motivations for every action.  People that have, in my opinion, a thinly veiled underlying agenda on party political lines.  People that don't understand the government is being led by the experts, people that don't understand the idea of unity and coming together (not literally) at a time of crisis and yes, people that lack a certain moral fibre.  Such people are drains.  

 

Cowardice and untrustworthiness are your words, I never said or implied that.

Edited 26 March 2020 by murphy

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, foxile5 said:

I'm still at a loss of how much to worry. 

 

It seems the reaction suggests it's serious but the death count is low. 

 

I'm tired trying to make up my own mind. Can someone tell me whether to panic. 

 

 

Don't panic, but do take it very seriously, I'd say.

 

10 days ago, the UK had about 200 new infections per day & 15-20 deaths.

Now it's about 1400 new infections per day & 50-80 deaths.

 

Because of all those new infections, the death rate is expected to increase markedly over the next 2-3 weeks as about 1-2% of those infected will die (v. approx), while about 5% could end up in intensive care, perhaps with lungs permanently damaged. Infections might or might not slow down now. Deaths might or might not reduce. 

 

Your chances are better if you're fairly young and healthy, but that's no guarantee. A 21-year-old girl & a 37-year-old senior diplomat, both in good health, died of Covid in the last 2 days.

 

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

It’s way to early to celebrate and think we have a good grip on this, figures are encouraging but nothing more yet.

 

Yep.

 

Same as when economic data is announced for quarterly growth, unemployment or whatever. They can be anomalies. What matters is the trend over several bits of data over time.

If infections and/or deaths level off over several days, I'll start to feel some cautious optimism - but not after 1 day.

 

Simply the fact of the increase in infections over the past fortnight will surely mean an increase in deaths over the next 1-2 weeks, even if infections level off or drop immediately & deaths decrease in a fortnight?

And there's absolutely no guarantee that will happen, based on encouraging figures for a single day, which could yet be an anomaly.

 

 

Edited 26 March 2020 by Alf Bentley

[Strokes]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

 

Same as when economic data is announced for quarterly growth, unemployment or whatever. They can be anomalies. What matters is the trend over several bits of data over time.

If infections and/or deaths level off over several days, I'll start to feel some cautious optimism - but not after 1 day.

 

Simply the fact of the increase in infections over the past fortnight will surely mean an increase in deaths over the next 1-2 weeks, even if infections level off or drop immediately & deaths decrease in a fortnight?

And there's absolutely no guarantee that will happen, based on encouraging figures for a single day, which could yet be an anomaly.

We are still on the edge of breaking point with NHS capabilities and even if we have  less serious infections, we might end up having a lot more deaths if they aren’t spread out.

My wife isn’t exactly painting a nice picture from what’s going on inside the hospital’s right now.

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, murphy said:

But I never said most of that 

 

You have taken it upon yourself to interpret my whingers and gripers comment as being directed at anybody who might question the government.  Not my intention.  There is however a certain type of person that just consistently batters the government at every turn regardless of the circumstances.  People that have, in my opinion, a thinly veiled underlying agenda on party political lines.  People that don't understand the government is being led by the experts and people that don't understand the idea of unity and coming together (not literally) at a time of crisis and yes, people that lack a certain moral fibre.  Such people are drains.  

 

Cowardice and untrustworthiness are your words, I never said or implied that.

Sometimes interpretation and intent is difficult to convey via text, yeah. And sometimes inferences are obvious, but leave a convenient amount of plausible deniability to allow for a tone of injured innocence later (not in this particular case, I hasten to add).

 

Anyway, on the topic itself, the sole significant judge of government policy on this one is going to be the number of deaths caused by it all by the time it's all done compared to other nations with similar resources and populations. And on that metric...it is, sadly, a little bit iffy at the present time. Here's hoping it becomes better before this is all over.

 

 

14 minutes ago, UPinCarolina said:

If it makes you all feel any better, at least Boris isn’t hoping to mark Eastertide and Christ’s resurrection by likely sending sending thousands of the faithful to meet Him.

Surely the people behind him will actually stop him before he commits electoral suicide in that way?

[Lionator]

1 hour ago, foxile5 said:

I'm still at a loss of how much to worry. 

 

It seems the reaction suggests it's serious but the death count is low. 

 

I'm tired trying to make up my own mind. Can someone tell me whether to panic. 

 

Well your chance of being killed by this are probably below 1%, but 1% is still incredibly high for an infectious disease. Overreact, don’t underreact with this specific disease. If you overreact then little damage will be done, if you under react then problems will occur.

 

On the plus side, the initial death estimates are looking a lot lower now. Scientists are learning more each and every day and the suppression techniques appear to be effective. Testing is also going to become very important. Basically there is light at the end of the tunnel which wasn’t there 2 weeks ago. 

[TamworthFoxes]

21 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Don't panic, but do take it very seriously, I'd say.

 

10 days ago, the UK had about 200 new infections per day & 15-20 deaths.

Now it's about 9000 new infections per day & 50-80 deaths.

 

Because of all those new infections, the death rate is expected to increase markedly over the next 2-3 weeks as about 1-2% of those infected will die (v. approx), while about 5% could end up in intensive care, perhaps with lungs permanently damaged. Infections might or might not slow down now. Deaths might or might not reduce. 

 

Your chances are better if you're fairly young and healthy, but that's no guarantee. A 21-year-old girl & a 37-year-old senior diplomat, both in good health, died of Covid in the last 2 days.

 

 

Yep.

 

Same as when economic data is announced for quarterly growth, unemployment or whatever. They can be anomalies. What matters is the trend over several bits of data over time.

If infections and/or deaths level off over several days, I'll start to feel some cautious optimism - but not after 1 day.

 

Simply the fact of the increase in infections over the past fortnight will surely mean an increase in deaths over the next 1-2 weeks, even if infections level off or drop immediately & deaths decrease in a fortnight?

And there's absolutely no guarantee that will happen, based on encouraging figures for a single day, which could yet be an anomaly.

 

There is not 9,000 new cases on a daily basis, the total is only 9,500 ish across all the days.

[Izzy]

Made me smile among all the doom and gloom. No i-phone, Skype or FaceTime for old Queenie. She's still using her 1970's rotary dial, corded telephone 

 

Buckingham Palace releases a photograph of the Queen speaking to the prime minister from Windsor Castle

 

[Finnaldo]

25 minutes ago, murphy said:

But I never said most of that 

 

You have taken it upon yourself to interpret my whingers and gripers comment as being directed at anybody who might question the government.  Not my intention, perhaps I could have been more clear. 

 

There is a certain type of person that just consistently batters the government at every turn  regardless of the circumstances.  People that will assume the most cynical of motivations for every action.  People that have, in my opinion, a thinly veiled underlying agenda on party political lines.  People that don't understand the government is being led by the experts, people that don't understand the idea of unity and coming together (not literally) at a time of crisis and yes, people that lack a certain moral fibre.  Such people are drains.  

 

Cowardice and untrustworthiness are your words, I never said or implied that.

My main issue is in the third paragraph. You count them as ‘drains’ but I can guarantee there’s many in that number volunteering with the NHS. Their opinion on government policy isn’t a ‘drain’ like hoarders and panickers. Many people were arguing with idiots like me defending herd immunity, and it’s a good thing they did because it would have ultimately led to up to 250,000 deaths. 
 

There’s still plenty self-employed still waiting on answers as well.

 

Perhaps I was too volatile initially, but it didn’t help you’re treating dissenters as some kind of foreign agent undermining the country. These people have a Democratic right to question these decisions, and that doesn’t lessen in a situation like this, it should mean more if anything.

[Guest Markyblue]

12 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Well your chance of being killed by this are probably below 1%, but 1% is still incredibly high for an infectious disease. Overreact, don’t underreact with this specific disease. If you overreact then little damage will be done, if you under react then problems will occur.

 

On the plus side, the initial death estimates are looking a lot lower now. Scientists are learning more each and every day and the suppression techniques appear to be effective. Testing is also going to become very important. Basically there is light at the end of the tunnel which wasn’t there 2 weeks ago. 

Everything ive read points to about 1% of possible more serious infections,  there will surely be millions who have no serious infections or never catch it. 67 millions in the country 1% would be 675000, the figure mentioned a couple of weeks ago was hopefully below 20000 , a terrible figure but a very small% of the population if true. If im out on my maths please correct me. I'm certainly not being  blaise just reporting what ive read. 

[ealingfox]

Why have they stopped reporting per 24 hour period? I missed that.

Edited 26 March 2020 by ealingfox

[lildave3]

I assume getting a car service/mot is not essential and I should cancel it right? 

[Alf Bentley]

16 minutes ago, TamworthFoxes said:

There is not 9,000 new cases on a daily basis, the total is only 9,500 ish across all the days.

 

Apologies. Wrote that post in a rush while trying to coordinate daughter!

 

You're correct and I've amended my post - about 1400 new infections per day confirmed in recent days, though how many are really out there is anyone's guess. 

[Milo]

1 minute ago, lildave3 said:

I assume getting a car service/mot is not essential and I should cancel it right? 

Keep up!!!

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-52036333

[martyn]

8 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Apologies. Wrote that post in a rush while trying to coordinate daughter!

 

You're correct and I've amended my post - about 1400 new infections per day confirmed in recent days, though how many are really out there is anyone's guess. 

Whitty and Vallance were claiming there were likely about 50k infections when the "official" total was about 5.5k.

 

Italy health minister estimated they could have circa 500-600k infections when their official total was 60k.

 

Whether that's true is anybody's guess, but suggests official numbers could be out (taking lag into account) by 5-10 times.

 

As for the governments handling of this, i am a big critic, but i'm glad they saw the light eventually. The old pandemic modelling was based off of data which wouldn't account for such a high % of cases needing hospital treatment. It was clear early on from Chinese data (taken at face value), let alone Italian data, that a "take it on the chin" approach would overwhelm the NHS in double quick time. Given our capacity, this should have been seen earlier, lockdown enforced earlier, and time bought to increase capacity in the health service before gradually lifting some restrictions. 

 

As it is, we'll probably get this first wave where many people simply can't get treated, and a lockdown in place until modellers are sure the NHS can cope.

Edited 26 March 2020 by martyn

[TamworthFoxes]

6 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Apologies. Wrote that post in a rush while trying to coordinate daughter!

 

You're correct and I've amended my post - about 1400 new infections per day confirmed in recent days, though how many are really out there is anyone's guess. 

Yes I agree there are undoubtedly many thousands more with it but who have not been officially confirmed. Because of this the most important figure to let us know how we are going is the death figures. As previously discussed the last few days have showed some more positive signs. (Strange to write that when hundreds are dying every day).

 

[Milo]

Genuine, non political question (would appreciate non abusive, apolitical input, please)... 

 

There are quite a few people who have strong views on the governments handling of this crisis. 
 

Where do you think we stand in relation to other countries? Are there places that have handled it better/worse? 
 

Is it fair to compare different countries responses to how we have dealt with it, due to differences in age, density of population (yeah, you know what I mean)! and differing healthcare systems? 
 

Or are there too many variables to draw comparisons? 
 

 

 

 

[stripeyfox]

29 minutes ago, Izzy said:

Made me smile among all the doom and gloom. No i-phone, Skype or FaceTime for old Queenie. She's still using her 1970's rotary dial, corded telephone 

 

Buckingham Palace releases a photograph of the Queen speaking to the prime minister from Windsor Castle

 

I'm reassurred! I would be shocked if she had any other kind of phone!
 

Edited 26 March 2020 by stripeyfox

[Finnaldo]

2 minutes ago, Milo said:

Genuine, non political question (would appreciate non abusive, apolitical input, please)... 

 

There are quite a few people who have strong views on the governments handling of this crisis. 
 

Where do you think we stand in relation to other countries? Are there places that have handled it better/worse? 
 

Is it fair to compare different countries responses to how we have dealt with it, due to differences in age, density of population (yeah, you know what I mean)! and differing healthcare systems? 
 

Or are there too many variables to draw comparisons? 

I think each country has to take into account how it’s populace will react to the measures in place and overall situation, and cultural aspects like grandparents living in the family household in Italy. 
 

Despite my criticisms, I think we’ll get off much better than Spain or Italy ultimately. But I think the initial laissez-fairs attitude to this may have cost more lives than necessary.

 

We can only use the evidence in front of us. This hasn’t been a complete disaster, but it’s been rather irresponsibly handled with extremely poor communication along the way. Boris has also proven himself a very weak leader.

[leicsmac]

7 minutes ago, Milo said:

Genuine, non political question (would appreciate non abusive, apolitical input, please)... 

 

There are quite a few people who have strong views on the governments handling of this crisis. 
 

Where do you think we stand in relation to other countries? Are there places that have handled it better/worse? 
 

Is it fair to compare different countries responses to how we have dealt with it, due to differences in age, density of population (yeah, you know what I mean)! and differing healthcare systems? 
 

Or are there too many variables to draw comparisons? 
 

 

 

 

Better than Spain or Italy and probably the US...not as well as Switzerland or Germany and certainly not as well as Korea (but that goes for practically everywhere).

 

There certainly are a lot of cultural differences that have to be taken into account, but I would still say that the closest comparison to the UK in terms of population number, surface area, healthcare system and resources is Korea, and the difference in cultural attitude towards things like this is clearly showing in the results as it's the only pertinent difference.

[brucey]

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

We are still on the edge of breaking point with NHS capabilities and even if we have  less serious infections, we might end up having a lot more deaths if they aren’t spread out.

My wife isn’t exactly painting a nice picture from what’s going on inside the hospital’s right now.

Not to mention the deaths from collateral damage, with most cancer diagnosis and surgery already cancelled. Or people genuinely unwell with heart attacks and such who choose not to attend hospital. 

 

Edited 26 March 2020 by brucey

[Carl the Llama]

8 minutes ago, Milo said:

Genuine, non political question (would appreciate non abusive, apolitical input, please)... 

 

There are quite a few people who have strong views on the governments handling of this crisis. 
 

Where do you think we stand in relation to other countries? Are there places that have handled it better/worse? 
 

Is it fair to compare different countries responses to how we have dealt with it, due to differences in age, density of population (yeah, you know what I mean)! and differing healthcare systems? 
 

Or are there too many variables to draw comparisons? 

Many places across Europe and SE Asia have responded more urgently and decisively on this, but after an initial period of normalcy bias from the public and bumbling around by our politicians we're finally in a position where we can say we're being adequately proactive, although many questions still hang over our heads like what's going on with the self-employed.

 

That said it holds equally true that, without naming names, many other countries have responded more lethargically, be it through administrative incompetence, straight up lying to the public or malicious number fiddling.

[urban.spaceman]

And all it took was a deadly virus that crippled the economy and sent millions of newly jobless people indoors!

 

 

[Lionator]

25 minutes ago, Milo said:

Genuine, non political question (would appreciate non abusive, apolitical input, please)... 

 

There are quite a few people who have strong views on the governments handling of this crisis. 
 

Where do you think we stand in relation to other countries? Are there places that have handled it better/worse? 
 

Is it fair to compare different countries responses to how we have dealt with it, due to differences in age, density of population (yeah, you know what I mean)! and differing healthcare systems? 
 

Or are there too many variables to draw comparisons? 
 

 

 

 

Somewhere in the middle. Economically the response has been good but ultimately we originally had the view ‘it could never happen here’. The herd immunity plan also cost us a bit of time and ultimately lives. However according to polls the public feel boris is handling things well, I don’t think the WHO agree. We’re lucky that we’ve appeared to have more time to prepare than Italy and Spain. If a good response is Singapore/South Korea/Germany and a bad response is USA/Brazil/Italy (to an extent) then we’re firmly in the middle.