Corona Virus

[Blue ROI]

In Ireland we have 4,000 cases and 137 who have died so far.

 

Relatively speaking its not overly bad. It was said that we could have over 25,000 cases by the end of March. I would have predicted maybe 150-200 deaths but it looks like it might be double that at least sadly. They've remained around 15-19 per day the last week or so.

 

We have a few things in our favour. We don't have winter tourism like a lot of Mainland Europe and also we have low areas of population. Spain for instance has 40 places with higher numbers than Cork City(the 2nd biggest in the Republic). Over half the cases reported have been in Dublin who have over 1/3 of the population. Being an island also helps. Some counties have less than 100,000 living in them and there's a lot of quiet rural spots. Overall the health of the country is decent. A lot of people are active in local sports and athletics.

 

The country has been in some form of lockdown for at least 3 weeks now. The schools closed 5 days before Paddy's Day and public houses followed suit. The hairdressers, clothes shops, and electricals followed suit over the next 2 weeks. It was pushed further last Friday.We were told to stay at home last Friday and by and large there is good order. A 2km limit was imposed but it's manageable. Very hard on older families but there's a great sense of community about the place. There nearly always has. The older population are well looked after in general.

 

The decision for Cheltenham to go ahead was scandalous mind.

 

I'd expect that the next 2 to 3 weeks could be the peak but in fairness to the government we have acted reasonably well. Dublin and Cork are on red alert because of population density but the measures taken hopefully will have an effect by the end of April.

 

 

Edited 4 April 2020 by Blue ROI

[WigstonWanderer]

I’m surprised there doesn’t seem to be a program of randomised testing. Surely this would supply information on true infection rates so that morbidity rates could be better estimated for modelling purposes? Say 4,000 random tests per week should yield statistically useful information.

Edited 5 April 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[st albans fox]

2 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

I’m surprised there does seem to be a program of randomised testing. Surely this would supply information on true infection rates so that morbidity rates could be better estimated for modelling purposes? Say 4,000 random tests per week should yield statistically useful information.

Simply isn’t the capacity at the moment ........ it’s something they will do once they build that up .....

[WigstonWanderer]

3 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Simply isn’t the capacity at the moment ........ it’s something they will do once they build that up .....

I thought they were claiming the capability to do 25k tests per day. If that’s the case 4,000 per week would seem to be a small price to pay for much better information to guide that whole lockdown/modelling strategy.

[st albans fox]

5 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

I thought they were claiming the capability to do 25k tests per day. If that’s the case 4,000 per week would seem to be a small price to pay for much better information to guide that whole lockdown/modelling strategy.

Current capacity is 12,800

 

target within two weeks is 25k

 

target by end April is 100k

[yorkie1999]

45 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Current capacity is 12,800

 

target within two weeks is 25k

 

target by end April is 100k

Targets hey!

[Lionator]

My target is to sleep with Margot Robbie by the end of the year.

[Costock_Fox]

2 minutes ago, Lionator said:

My target is to sleep with Margot Robbie by the end of the year.

Social distancing might not be your only problem with this plan.

[Dr The Singh]

3 minutes ago, Lionator said:

My target is to sleep with Robbie savage by the end of the year.

[StanSP]

2 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Current capacity is 12,800

 

target within two weeks is 25k

 

target by end April is 100k

Do we know what capacity has been like for the past 7 or 14 days? Has there been an increase in capacity that points towards reaching 25k tests per day? 

[MattFox]

8 hours ago, StanSP said:

Why are 4000 people being released from prison early? Not sure on the logic on that one... 

25% of Prison Staff have been off work due to this.

 

There aren’t enough officers basically 

[joachim1965]

Bus drivers are starting to die now, 5 in london, 1 in Bristol and 1 in Nottingham.

[WigstonWanderer]

Excellent discussion here with a virologist if you have the time. 
 

 

[Crinklyfox]

12 hours ago, brucey said:

I'm struggling to reconcile this against the information we have been given from other sources including press briefings.  This data suggests that 15% of all persons who contract the virus will require hospitalisation.  If correct, the NHS will be overcome very rapidly.

[Guest Markyblue]

2 hours ago, Crinklyfox said:

I'm struggling to reconcile this against the information we have been given from other sources including press briefings.  This data suggests that 15% of all persons who contract the virus will require hospitalisation.  If correct, the NHS will be overcome very 

 

Edited 5 April 2020 by Markyblue

[reynard]

16 hours ago, Jattdogg said:

i understand  any club can do this with the 80% govt assistance thing but it just hurt the most vulnerable in the end with increased taxes to pay this all back. Liverpool are topping up the other 20% from what i read but how is it players still get paid and not furloughed? I havent been on top of that aspect and perhaps there is some legal reason but it ticks me off. If your club is up shits creek i understand. Dont think liverpool has much to worry about though. I hope all clubs including ours hold out as long as possible before having to suffer undue hardship.

Just imagine any of them living on £2500 per month if the clubs didn't top up!  Probably what they earn in an hour or so.

[lgfualol]

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/health/article/2001366930/british-youngest-nurse-succumbs-to-covid-19 

 

Didnt have the right protective gear. Only 23. Sort it out UK.

[ithuriel]

The USA is going to really clock up a number isn't it.

 

[ozleicester]

USA - "There is going to be a lot of death"

 

But they (Trump) think next week will be the worst.

[Guest MattP]

15 minutes ago, ithuriel said:

The USA is going to really clock up a number isn't it.

 

Numbers could go into thousands a day by next week, areas like New York are a disaster zone.

[Lionator]

There's an app which indicate traffic/transport levels in major cities worldwide. London last week was down to 8% of normal levels, while the likes of Barcelona, Madrid and Milan were at 2-3% (Italian and Spanish cases are slowing down), whereas New York was still at 30%. America is going to be absolutely destroyed by this.

[StanSP]

Just saw reports that USA diverted several hundred thousand masks from Canada. Illegal? 

[st albans fox]

3 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Just saw reports that USA diverted several hundred thousand masks from Canada. Illegal? 

They have invoked a ‘Korean war’ era law that means US companies have to offer all their product to the US govt ........ happened on Friday. 

[Alf Bentley]

In the USA, I suppose the scale of the disaster will partly depend on how effective the lockdowns are - and how compliant people are.

 

From what I've read, lockdowns do already apply in most states - and the ones holding out against lockdowns seem to be less populated, rural states.

But I've also seen reports suggesting that, nationwide, compliance seems much poorer than in most European countries (as per @Lionator's post above while I was writing this!).

 

At the moment, the vast majority of infections and deaths are in New York and neighbouring states, and in a few other hotspots like Washington state, Louisiana and Michigan.

 

With lockdowns already in place, it seems like good news that infection and death rates have yet to rocket in some other highly-populated states.

I'm thinking, in particular, of California (40m people) and Florida (only 21m, but a high proportion of retirees).

But it's early days so let's hope low compliance doesn't allow things nationally to get like New York. The longer-term impact would extend to us, given the importance of the USA in the global economy.

 

Back in the UK, I'm going to do a rare thing for me and praise a Tory: I thought Matt Hancock was much clearer in his messages and answers on Marr & had eliminated the bullshit PR and dishonest manipulation of figures that he'd deployed a week or two ago. Much more the straight-speaking tone & clarity that's needed from the Govt - I hope Boris learns from that when he returns. Decent, too, from Starmer and Lineker.

[KFS]

21 minutes ago, MattP said:

Numbers could go into thousands a day by next week, areas like New York are a disaster zone.

Once again as a New York resident, I’m going to have to disagree with your sensationalist posts on the US, Matt.

 

The US has tested over double the UK has, also has three times less death per 1million of population. Granted, we are roughly 2 weeks ahead of you in all of this, and the way this works means yes, deaths with rise in the thousands every day until it curves. 
 

The only country currently who has out trended it’s estimated curve, I.e more than the predicted cases and deaths, is the U.K. The US, Italy and Spain all coming in under the latest predicted curves.
 

Dr Birx and Dr Fauci are saying 100,000s of lives will be lost, and maybe you guys missed this bit, if the precautions are not followed. I.e if they have a similar spread as NY in other states. Slimy Donald is also calling 100,000s of deaths so when it’s much less than that he can claim a campaign win later. Remember there is a planned election this year.

 

Last week I read a BBC article about what the US has done wrong in this crisis and as I’m reading down, every key topic I am looking at, Boris has fvcked up for the U.K. at the same degree if not more on the U.K. front. Governor Cuomo and Mayor De Blasio for example had sourced 4,400 ventilators for the NY region recently (with 1,100 more on the way) and I read that your promised 30,000 in the U.K. turned up as 30? 

 

Please do not get wound up in the sensationalist media and stick to factual sources. Anecdotally, we were being told to do more here two weeks earlier than you guys were. Begging my asthmatic parents not to go to work because it was unclear if they were key workers or not, was not fun. Comparatively here it was made very clear who and who shouldn’t be going to work. Even then the subway was derelict compared to some of the scenes I saw from the underground. 

Clearly I do not want any level of illness or death for my countrymen and women.  My family is there and quite honestly it scares me how little was done early on and the repercussions of that. Which isn’t just a U.K statement. 
 

New York is in trouble currently but we’re doing our part and the governors are performing with what they have. It is pissing me off, however, reading some of the things I am as a resident here. It’s clear from my move over that the media reports things very differently cross border.