Corona Virus

[HankMarvin]

1 minute ago, Facecloth said:

Heard on the traffic news a road on the way into Devon has been blocked by an overturned caravan, which had a convoy of caravans behind it. All heading to Devon and Cornwall for the weekend. Idiots. Theses people should be sent home, fined and have points on their licence.

A few people have alluded to the fact that they might be do as you likeys. For a Caravan convoy to have gone unchallenged.

[l444ry]

8 minutes ago, brucey said:

DHSC Twitter has just put out their daily update post and it’s a different number. Won’t post it here in case it offends. Maybe BBC counted a different time period? 

Sadly that number does not include Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and deaths outside of hospitals. 

[brucey]

Just now, l444ry said:

Sadly that number does not include Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and deaths outside of hospitals. 

Yeah I realised that. Got confused as most of the graphs floating about are plotted for the entire UK.

[reynard]

3 hours ago, worth_the_wait said:

An article on Breakfast TV this morning, about the chappie who's just come out of the Leicester Royal.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HWDUgIXSac

 

A very articulate chap describing his experience, very moving, and actually rather uplifting (amidst all the other tragic deaths)

 

<Edited to say: The bit when he said "I'm alive, and it feels great" is surely one of the classic lines ever!>

An uplifting end to a sad story.

[purpleronnie]

We really do have some absolute pillocks here.  My sister went shopping some bloke ignored the distancing and actually knocked into her as he barged past her.  Another ignored the limits on how many allowed in the shop at once and when told just shook their head and stormed out.  I'd love to just sit these morons down and just ask why?

[oxford blue]

25 minutes ago, martyn said:

The % of cases going onto a ventilator with Covid-19 and not surviving is relatively high.

The Times reports today it is about two-thirds. Only a 50/50 chance of survival for those going into intensive care.

 

On another note, the Labour party have correctly expelled Sheila Coles, the Mayor of Heanor in Derbyshire, after posting on Facebook that "He (Johnson) completely deserves this". Pity she can continue as an Independent.

[ealingfox]

1 hour ago, FoxesDeb said:

Does anyone really think that we could have done things any differently? It's probably only about a fortnight since I was arguing with people on here who still thought it was perfectly fine to go to the park despite being advised not to, and other people refusing to listen to the facts put in front of them showing that this was never going to be 'just the same as the flu'. 

People are idiots, they refused to follow the polite requests and they still are refusing to follow the actual rules. 

The population imo is the biggest culprit in all of this. Too many stupid people. 

 

Of course they could have done things differently, that's obvious. There are dozens of posts on this thread posting various articles and quotes and methods as such. Whether they should have done or whether what they did the right thing based on what was available is the question.

[bmt]

7 minutes ago, Markyblue said:

So how do you know its the wrong advice.?

You don’t it’s a judgement call and they’ve got it wrong (as I’ve always said, my opinion). If it’s a 50/50 between competing advice you should pick the one where less people die, which we didn’t do. I’m not going to argue this point anymore. You can go to my comments 6-8 weeks ago and look at why I said they should take action early. No I’m not an expert in infectious diseases but I do understand statistical modelling relatively well and it was apparent very early doors what was going to happen. 

[StanSP]

 

 

[FoxesDeb]

10 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

 

Of course they could have done things differently, that's obvious. There are dozens of posts on this thread posting various articles and quotes and methods as such. Whether they should have done or whether what they did the right thing based on what was available is the question.

You were the person who thought it was fine to go to the park a couple of weeks ago 'because it was still legal'. You also claim to be married to a doctor who agreed with you. That flew in the face of every other doctor talking to the media at the time who were crying, begging and pleading with the public to just stay at home. Do nothing else but just stay at home they pleaded. Those of us who could see what was coming used our common sense, listened to what the people on the front line were saying, and stayed at home. We didn't go to the park just because Boris hadn't outlawed it, we didn't need him to. 

I rest my case, people are stupid. 

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, FoxesDeb said:

Does anyone really think that we could have done things any differently? It's probably only about a fortnight since I was arguing with people on here who still thought it was perfectly fine to go to the park despite being advised not to, and other people refusing to listen to the facts put in front of them showing that this was never going to be 'just the same as the flu'. 

People are idiots, they refused to follow the polite requests and they still are refusing to follow the actual rules. 

The population imo is the biggest culprit in all of this. Too many stupid people. 

 

I was going to reply saying that I thought you were being a bit generous to the govt (I'll delay judgment on that) and were being a bit harsh on the public, but......

Just went for my once-every-couple-of-days walk round local streets and Victoria Park. It was the most people I've seen out on the streets and in the park for about a month!

 

In Victoria Park, there were lots of people going around in pairs and quite a number in threes and fours - almost entirely young men, so probably very few who were couples or from the same household.

It was hard to physically avoid people at times. There was even a bloke exercising on the climbing frame in the closed-down children's playground - and a couple of blokes ran past in front of me, stopped and one of them was repeatedly spitting on the pavement not that far from me....

 

What the hell does it take to get through to some people?!? There are thousands of people being hospitalised every day, hundreds dying every day (some of them, albeit a minority, young men - but anyway, do these blokes not have parents?) - and even the PM is in intensive care.

 

So, yeah, you may have a point about "too many stupid people", Deb! 

 

After seeing that - and hearing about traffic queues heading for Cornwall - I begin to wonder if this lockdown is starting to fall apart. Because if a fair number start ignoring it, I'd imagine that a lot more will follow suit, which could be disastrous for health, the length of the shutdown and the economic damage.

 

If it continues like that over the weekend, I'd be in favour of strengthening, not relaxing the lockdown in the short-term. Easier said than done, though - there are only so many police. In fact, I haven't seen a single plod for weeks. Admittedly, I live in a "nice" area, but I'm surprised not to have seen any on Victoria Park at any point, having a word with transgressors....

[st albans fox]

27 minutes ago, nnfox said:

 

These types of "I told you so" comments are disappointing.  Stats are stats and can be spun in many ways.  For example, taking the numbers of deaths from the second death we are 1,500 behind Italy at the same time and over 6,000 behind Spain. 

 

We've been told not to read too much into daily stats, sometimes there are delays in the reporting for whatever reason.

 

The lockdown was coming. Lots of people had already started staying inside.  If the official lockdown had come a day earlier or two days earlier would the figures today been much better? I doubt it.  Would going early with the lockdown mean that we would be in lockdown for longer? Maybe.  Maybe not. Would an early lockdown been so effective? Maybe. Maybe not.  We'll never know.

 

To claim today's high number is due to failings around decisions made or not made at a specific time are a little simplistic in my opinion.

 

It's too early to say how big any mistakes made have been.  Once this is all over, those who want to keep score should look at the percentage of country's populations have been killed.  Then we will see who has performed less worse.  There are no winners.

I’ve never questioned the timing of lockdown before but I put it out there today ..... each day’s delay (far moreso in London) must have meant many thousands of people coming into contact with the virus, especially on public transport.  I understand why there was the initial delay (the bucket illustration) but I just feel that those last few days of widespread contact could have been cut - if you look back there was masses of speculation that we would be locked down at various points in that w/e fri 20th March.  In the end the pubs/clubs/gyms were shut on that Friday evening (with the consequential dash out to get pissed that night) and we waited till the Monday evening to close non essential shops.  It’s a reasonable question .......there can’t be any doubt that each day with social contact that was unrestricted has led to more cases of the virus  .....

[st albans fox]

5 minutes ago, StanSP said:

 

 

Nice gesture but 4000?  
 

that’s a bit pathetic for a Chinese conglomerate ...... I’m being offered hundreds of thousands every day by middlemen out there ......  4000 won’t go far in the Wolverhampton healthcare system .....

[Dahnsouff]

2 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I’ve never questioned the timing of lockdown before but I put it out there today ..... each day’s delay (far moreso in London) must have meant many thousands of people coming into contact with the virus, especially on public transport.  I understand why there was the initial delay (the bucket illustration) but I just feel that those last few days of widespread contact could have been cut - if you look back there was masses of speculation that we would be locked down at various points in that w/e fri 20th March.  In the end the pubs/clubs/gyms were shut on that Friday evening (with the consequential dash out to get pissed that night) and we waited till the Monday evening to close non essential shops.  It’s a reasonable question .......there can’t be any doubt that each day with social contact that was unrestricted has led to more cases of the virus  .....

I understand your point along with the bucket example, but adding @Alf Bentley comments to this is just depressing. It does not matter who the feck was in the government, when they did the lockdown or even for how long if the utter cretins under their watch continue to act like morons, then they will condone a large swathe of the country to continued risk. Makes me despair for the country. 

[st albans fox]

4 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

I understand your point along with the bucket example, but adding @Alf Bentley comments to this is just depressing. It does not matter who the feck was in the government, when they did the lockdown or even for how long if the utter cretins under their watch continue to act like morons, then they will condone a large swathe of the country to continued risk. Makes me despair for the country. 

I think that the modelling assumes we have a certain percentage of morons who will do as they wish .......

[HankMarvin]

1 minute ago, st albans fox said:

I’ve never questioned the timing of lockdown before but I put it out there today ..... each day’s delay (far moreso in London) must have meant many thousands of people coming into contact with the virus, especially on public transport.  I understand why there was the initial delay (the bucket illustration) but I just feel that those last few days of widespread contact could have been cut - if you look back there was masses of speculation that we would be locked down at various points in that w/e fri 20th March.  In the end the pubs/clubs/gyms were shut on that Friday evening (with the consequential dash out to get pissed that night) and we waited till the Monday evening to close non essential shops.  It’s a reasonable question .......there can’t be any doubt that each day with social contact that was unrestricted has led to more cases of the virus  .....

It’s a fine balancing act, I think the hope is that a majority of people have immunity to this once testing starts.

if they struck too early it wouldn’t have spread so much. They knew was they was doing allowing Cheltenham for example to go ahead.

It’s a double edge sword because of that, we now have increased death rates and a strain on the NHS. 
I guess they hope we bounce back quicker than other countries that locked down earlier once lockdown has lifted.

[Dahnsouff]

1 minute ago, st albans fox said:

I think that the modelling assumes we have a certain percentage of morons who will do as they wish .......

I bloody hope so.
 

Fancy they are going to let these caravans get into Cornwall and then declare the whole of Cornwall shut and a no-go zone. 

[urban.spaceman]

 

 

 

[Kopfkino]

9 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Just went for my once-every-couple-of-days walk round local streets and Victoria Park. It was the most people I've seen out on the streets and in the park for about a month!

 

And to think the behavioural scientists were getting a trashing on Twitter and the like, saw many a person say that they were wrong because when faced with a heap of deaths people would obey and many the same person intoxicated with self-adulation over their demands for lockdown early on.

 

Of course, it has to be stressed that the overwhelming majority are abiding by the rules and trying their best and that compliance is built into the models. Unfortunately, some people are just too individualistic or think they're above these things. I'm not sure going much further on measures will work tbh.

[st albans fox]

2 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

 

 

It will be interesting to see the studies over the next few years to see exactly why this is ...........

[UPinCarolina]

4 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

It will be interesting to see the studies over the next few years to see exactly why this is ...........

In the United States, it's pretty obvious.

[Parafox]

26 minutes ago, StanSP said:

 

 

Anyone know what our generous owners have done? I'm sure it'll be something impressive.

[murphy]

50 minutes ago, bmt said:

Or listened to the wrong advice. There was a clamouring from scientists who said do it severely and asap, so we can still criticise their response.

 

listening to the wrong advice is bad leadership 

 

Do you really expect the government to ignore the advice of the CSO and the CMO and all the government experts that are on hand for exactly this reason?  Experts that are at their disposal 24/7 and just listen to some other scientist that they saw on the news?  That is ridiculous and there would be hell to pay if they did.

[Parafox]

13 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

I bloody hope so.
 

Fancy they are going to let these caravans get into Cornwall and then declare the whole of Cornwall shut and a no-go zone. 

Where will I get my "genuine, gold medal winning, the best in Cornwall/the world, authentic" Cornish pasties from?

[HankMarvin]

12 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

And to think the behavioural scientists were getting a trashing on Twitter and the like, saw many a person say that they were wrong because when faced with a heap of deaths people would obey and many the same person intoxicated with self-adulation over their demands for lockdown early on.

 

Of course, it has to be stressed that the overwhelming majority are abiding by the rules and trying their best and that compliance is built into the models. Unfortunately, some people are just too individualistic or think they're above these things. I'm not sure going much further on measures will work tbh.

Good point 

they also said that starting the lockdown too early would result in complacency within weeks.

 

lots of people reporting see more people around so maybe they were right