Coronavirus Thread

[WigstonWanderer]

Got to say that I’m much more hopeful now that places that have been hardest hit such as London and New York, etc, won’t have a second wave of infections, or at least nowhere near as bad as the first wave. Reasons are:

 

- I think it’s becoming clear that having had the infection does confer immunity, and that it may well last for some time. There seems to be very little evidence of people getting it twice. If it does happen it’s probably very rare.

 

- Infection rates in such places is estimated to be around 20%, and while this is insufficient for full herd immunity, it will help, and may help a great deal if as suspected, the people who have already been infected are disproportionately the ones most likely to spread the disease.

 

- Add in basic interventions such as use of masks, social distancing, hand hygiene, etc, and the total effect may be sufficient to keep the reproduction rate below 1.

[simFox]

The broadcast media, which did such a good job of creating fear in the population, continues to be relentless in its pessimism. Just imagine what it would be like if they allowed the true picture to emerge:  

 

It’s the BBC Six O’Clock News and Health Editor Hugh Pym is updating Sophie Raworth on the Covid-19 pandemic.

 

Sophie: So, Hugh, we’ve seen another rise in cases today?  

 

Hugh: Yes, Sophie, there were 1,040 reported daily cases in England and Wales.

 

Sophie: Gosh, that’s quite an uptick.

 

Hugh: Well, it sounds a lot, Sophie, but we have to bear in mind that we are testing a lot more people so we are going to find more evidence of infection. Over 122,000 tests were processed, the most ever in a single day – 1,000 positives out of 122,000 tests is really very small.

 

Sophie: Still, it’s a major cause for concern generally?

 

Hugh: Well, not really. The PCR test is not totally reliable. It’s coming up with quite a lot of false positives. What the viewers probably don’t realise is the test can detect remnants of the virus. So someone who had Covid back in July, say, could be recorded today as a positive test, but he or she is now fully recovered.

 

Sophie (checking her notes): But we do have the very real threat of more local lockdowns in places like Bedford because there are these spikes in Covid cases?

 

Hugh (sighs): Well, they’re not really spikes, Sophie. A lot of healthy younger people are getting Covid now and they don’t have any symptoms at all. They don’t even know they’ve been infected. But if they test positive they’re added to the list. But a positive test really only becomes a “case” when someone gets sick enough that they need to be admitted to hospital.

 

Sophie: And how many cases are being admitted to hospital, Hugh?

 

Hugh (looks sheepish): Not very many to be honest with you.

 

Sophie: But we’re still in the middle of a global pandemic?

 

Hugh: Ah, but are we? There are 141,000 hospital beds in England, Sophie. Today, just 599 of those beds are occupied by patients with Covid-19.

 

Sophie: You’re kidding me!

 

Hugh: No, I’m not. We have 1,257 hospitals in total so rather a large number of hospitals don’t have a single Covid case.

 

Sophie: So why aren’t hospitals fully open to non-Covid patients, Hugh?

 

Hugh: That’s a really good question, Sophie. Could some NHS managers be saving money by keeping wards closed? The Department of Health doesn’t have a clue what’s going on, as per usual. And, of course, a lot of doctors have been working from home in the south of France and they can’t get back because of the quarantine.

 

Sophie (frantically consults notes): What about the deaths, though, Hugh? They’re really really bad.  

 

Hugh: Sorry to disappoint, but NHS England reported just two Covid-related hospital deaths today. Wales and Scotland haven’t had any Covid deaths for quite some time. In fact, deaths in the UK have been below average for the past seven weeks now. It’s starting to look like deaths in 2020 will be no higher than they were in 2019.

 

Sophie: Then how could the Government possibly justify keeping all the social distancing measures and imposing lockdowns?

 

Hugh: Er… I think they’re worried that if they tell the public the truth it will be hard to regain control.    

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/life/sitting-comfortably-not-six-oclock-news/amp/

Edited 24 August 2020 by simFox

[Facecloth]

57 minutes ago, simFox said:

The broadcast media, which did such a good job of creating fear in the population, continues to be relentless in its pessimism. Just imagine what it would be like if they allowed the true picture to emerge:  

 

It’s the BBC Six O’Clock News and Health Editor Hugh Pym is updating Sophie Raworth on the Covid-19 pandemic.

 

Sophie: So, Hugh, we’ve seen another rise in cases today?  

 

Hugh: Yes, Sophie, there were 1,040 reported daily cases in England and Wales.

 

Sophie: Gosh, that’s quite an uptick.

 

Hugh: Well, it sounds a lot, Sophie, but we have to bear in mind that we are testing a lot more people so we are going to find more evidence of infection. Over 122,000 tests were processed, the most ever in a single day – 1,000 positives out of 122,000 tests is really very small.

 

Sophie: Still, it’s a major cause for concern generally?

 

Hugh: Well, not really. The PCR test is not totally reliable. It’s coming up with quite a lot of false positives. What the viewers probably don’t realise is the test can detect remnants of the virus. So someone who had Covid back in July, say, could be recorded today as a positive test, but he or she is now fully recovered.

 

Sophie (checking her notes): But we do have the very real threat of more local lockdowns in places like Bedford because there are these spikes in Covid cases?

 

Hugh (sighs): Well, they’re not really spikes, Sophie. A lot of healthy younger people are getting Covid now and they don’t have any symptoms at all. They don’t even know they’ve been infected. But if they test positive they’re added to the list. But a positive test really only becomes a “case” when someone gets sick enough that they need to be admitted to hospital.

 

Sophie: And how many cases are being admitted to hospital, Hugh?

 

Hugh (looks sheepish): Not very many to be honest with you.

 

Sophie: But we’re still in the middle of a global pandemic?

 

Hugh: Ah, but are we? There are 141,000 hospital beds in England, Sophie. Today, just 599 of those beds are occupied by patients with Covid-19.

 

Sophie: You’re kidding me!

 

Hugh: No, I’m not. We have 1,257 hospitals in total so rather a large number of hospitals don’t have a single Covid case.

 

Sophie: So why aren’t hospitals fully open to non-Covid patients, Hugh?

 

Hugh: That’s a really good question, Sophie. Could some NHS managers be saving money by keeping wards closed? The Department of Health doesn’t have a clue what’s going on, as per usual. And, of course, a lot of doctors have been working from home in the south of France and they can’t get back because of the quarantine.

 

Sophie (frantically consults notes): What about the deaths, though, Hugh? They’re really really bad.  

 

Hugh: Sorry to disappoint, but NHS England reported just two Covid-related hospital deaths today. Wales and Scotland haven’t had any Covid deaths for quite some time. In fact, deaths in the UK have been below average for the past seven weeks now. It’s starting to look like deaths in 2020 will be no higher than they were in 2019.

 

Sophie: Then how could the Government possibly justify keeping all the social distancing measures and imposing lockdowns?

 

Hugh: Er… I think they’re worried that if they tell the public the truth it will be hard to regain control.    

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/life/sitting-comfortably-not-six-oclock-news/amp/

I know this is satire but genuinely this is pretty much what they do. I was watching BBC breakfast the other week and Nina Warhurst was doing the business news on the day it was confirmed we were entering a recession. Despite all the people she spoke to telling her whilst it was bad, all being well it should be short recession we'll get out of quickly, she kept pushing a negative narrative. The news thrives off negativity. Theres not much of a story if this is a short recession, there's no story if covid starts to slow down, so keep pushing the negative. There is story if schools can't go back  there is a story if thousands lose their jobs, so thats what they want. And I'm not saying that negative things shouldn't be reported, we all know life isn't great at the minute, but the media really need to stop chasing the negative side just to create a story, when all other evidence is pointing the other way.

[joachim1965]

45 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

I know this is satire but genuinely this is pretty much what they do. I was watching BBC breakfast the other week and Nina Warhurst was doing the business news on the day it was confirmed we were entering a recession. Despite all the people she spoke to telling her whilst it was bad, all being well it should be short recession we'll get out of quickly, she kept pushing a negative narrative. The news thrives off negativity. Theres not much of a story if this is a short recession, there's no story if covid starts to slow down, so keep pushing the negative. There is story if schools can't go back  there is a story if thousands lose their jobs, so thats what they want. And I'm not saying that negative things shouldn't be reported, we all know life isn't great at the minute, but the media really need to stop chasing the negative side just to create a story, when all other evidence is pointing the other way.

The sole purpose of the media is to promote fear.

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

45 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

I know this is satire but genuinely this is pretty much what they do. I was watching BBC breakfast the other week and Nina Warhurst was doing the business news on the day it was confirmed we were entering a recession. Despite all the people she spoke to telling her whilst it was bad, all being well it should be short recession we'll get out of quickly, she kept pushing a negative narrative. The news thrives off negativity. Theres not much of a story if this is a short recession, there's no story if covid starts to slow down, so keep pushing the negative. There is story if schools can't go back  there is a story if thousands lose their jobs, so thats what they want. And I'm not saying that negative things shouldn't be reported, we all know life isn't great at the minute, but the media really need to stop chasing the negative side just to create a story, when all other evidence is pointing the other way.

Agreed, the media pursuit of a “second wave” has been relentless. 
Bad news and negative stories will always make the headlines instead of anything remotely positive.

 

[Nod.E]

12 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Got to say that I’m much more hopeful now that places that have been hardest hit such as London and New York, etc, won’t have a second wave of infections, or at least nowhere near as bad as the first wave. Reasons are:

 

- I think it’s becoming clear that having had the infection does confer immunity, and that it may well last for some time. There seems to be very little evidence of people getting it twice. If it does happen it’s probably very rare.

 

- Infection rates in such places is estimated to be around 20%, and while this is insufficient for full herd immunity, it will help, and may help a great deal if as suspected, the people who have already been infected are disproportionately the ones most likely to spread the disease.

 

- Add in basic interventions such as use of masks, social distancing, hand hygiene, etc, and the total effect may be sufficient to keep the reproduction rate below 1.

So, in our country where it's already running loose, would you suggest local lockdowns for minutiae outbreaks are a sensible thing? 

 

Bearing in mind currently hospitals and ICUs have a lot of capacity right now.

 

Might as well build up some immunity before winter hits.

[Wymsey]

Do people think we'll have to wear masks whenever we're in shops for a long time?

[Nod.E]

3 minutes ago, Wymsey said:

Do people think we'll have to wear masks whenever we're in shops for a long time?

Fvcking hope not. I'm a glasses wearer and it's a nightmare.

[yorkie1999]

3 hours ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Agreed, the media pursuit of a “second wave” has been relentless. 
Bad news and negative stories will always make the headlines instead of anything remotely positive.

 

If a second wave does happen, it will down to schools re-opening, although the government will pead innocent and blame it on winter approaching or some other crap.

[brucey]

 

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

53 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

If a second wave does happen, it will down to schools re-opening, although the government will pead innocent and blame it on winter approaching or some other crap.

What is the alternative? If children miss 12-18 months of school we're gonna have major issues further down the line.

 

Only 1 (yes one) deaths yesterday!

Edited 24 August 2020 by Leicester_Loyal

[yorkie1999]

10 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

What is the alternative? If children miss 12-18 months of school we're gonna have major issues further down the line.

 

Only 1 (yes one) deaths yesterday!

I don't know what the alternative is, let's hope there isn't a need for one, but if there is a second wave in about a months time, we'll know the reason why.

[WigstonWanderer]

4 hours ago, Nod.E said:

So, in our country where it's already running loose, would you suggest local lockdowns for minutiae outbreaks are a sensible thing? 

 

Bearing in mind currently hospitals and ICUs have a lot of capacity right now.

 

Might as well build up some immunity before winter hits.

I think of it as more of a possible “get out of jail free“ card. This is only speculation and even if true, would only apply to places (cities & metropolitan areas) that have already had a severe outbreak. My instincts are to be cautious until either more is known, or there is no alternative. However, I appreciate that your attitude to risk is different to mine.

Edited 24 August 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[yorkie1999]

things must be getting a bit better. This thread is like a transfer thread, the more a deal goes off, the lower down the thread list it gets

[UniFox21]

12 hours ago, simFox said:

Hugh: Well, not really. The PCR test is not totally reliable. It’s coming up with quite a lot of false positives. What the viewers probably don’t realise is the test can detect remnants of the virus. So someone who had Covid back in July, say, could be recorded today as a positive test, but he or she is now fully recovered.

This is very true. PCR amplifies any small amount of viral DNA present, so even tiny amounts will show as positives. Not always a bad thing, but if people act like they're immune it could be bad later on. It ****ed me over a bit in my research project last year 

Edited 24 August 2020 by UniFox21

[Leicester_Loyal]

3 deaths announced today, but one from was April.

[Captain...]

On 23/08/2020 at 14:24, whoareyaaa said:

on a given day, globally:

• 26,283 people die of cancer;
• 49,041 people die of cardiovascular diseases;
• 4,383 people die of diabetes.

Mosquitoes take the lives of over 2,740 people, and….

And HUMANS kill an average of 1,287 fellow people, every single day.

 

keep them masks on!

And how much time, effort and money has been spent trying to deal with those causes of death?

 

Let's just bear in mind that the global deaths of coronavirus are despite taking unprecedented measures to control it, it also doesn't seem to have hit some of the poorest countries in Africa yet who are less well equipped to deal with it (and ignoring the speculation that many countries are under reporting the number of cases and deaths).

 

Even supposing that it will get no worse than this and the 4255 people that were reported to have died was an accurate figure. If wearing a mask could have stopped those 4255 people dying then is that not worth it?

[Captain...]

7 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

What is the alternative? If children miss 12-18 months of school we're gonna have major issues further down the line.

 

Only 1 (yes one) deaths yesterday!

Don't forget deaths are always lower at the weekend due to how they are recorded. The other thing to remember is we are now using a new drug that saves lives, but doesn't deal with the long term effects of a serious dose of covid.

 

But yes deaths are thankfully declining but that is because of the unprecedented measures taken to control the virus.

[Trav Le Bleu]

On 23/08/2020 at 21:05, simFox said:

Malaria is quite common where I am, we take malarone in order to save our lives.

 

Took it for a week 10 years ago.

 

Call me a maverick, but yes you see mosquitos, but it's not like the air is thick with them, if you just act sensibly and test if you feel bad, a few injections sort it. No I've never had malaria.

 

Like all these diseases that kill you, if we all kept worrying about them most of us wouldn't leave the house and along comes covid and everyone's wetting the bed. You have to wonder what planet people think they're on.

 

On the grand scheme of nasty stuff that kills you, it's really not worth worrying about..

In South Leicestershire? 

[simFox]

13 hours ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

In South Leicestershire? 

Yeah, work on an oil rig in Melton Mowbray.

[Nalis]

5 hours ago, simFox said:

Yeah, work on an oil rig in Melton Mowbray.

You drilling for pies?

[Leicester_Loyal]

It's looking like a lot of schools will be asking pupils to wear masks, I'm torn on the issue myself, it would obviously help stop the spread, but I don't like to think of kids in masks for hours at a time.

[WigstonWanderer]

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-world-first-case-of-reinfection-confirmed-hong-kong-university/3d0b16cb-0527-4583-ac2d-7e3b159379ee

 

Seems to be a confirmed case of someone getting reinfected 4.5 months after the original infection. Hopefully a rare occurrence. The second infection was asymptomatic, but presumably still infectious, so presumably the original infection would cease to contribute to herd immunity at some point up to 4.5 months.

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

It's looking like a lot of schools will be asking pupils to wear masks, I'm torn on the issue myself, it would obviously help stop the spread, but I don't like to think of kids in masks for hours at a time.

Perhaps it's because they're more used to the idea, but that's been happening for six months over here and it's not really been an issue for the kids, even the very young ones.

[Leeds Fox]

Why are we not protecting the vulnerable and going on as normal?
 

Next week I’m due some treatment that I’ve been waiting over 6 months for, and have been advised to isolate (or distance and much as practicable) for 10

days after as it’ll lower my immune system. I completely understand, and if I don’t I’m more susceptible than most to the virus.
 

Shouldn’t this be how the country moves forward? Vulnerable protect themselves and everyone else carries on as normal (with the current SD measures in place)?