Coronavirus Thread

[Free Falling Foxes]

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I'm afraid the white/male/young community in Leicester are not helping themselves. Very early in the lockdown, I witnessed groups of lads socialising, jogging and exercising on a climbing frame in Victoria Park. They were all male, most of them were young and the overwhelming majority were white.

I've also heard that there was recently an outbreak in Durham. I understand that almost 50% of the population of Durham is male, many are young - and the vast majority are white.

When I heard the news that there were outbreaks in Durham and Leicester, I figured why. 

 

Yes, that's meant as a pastiche but is based on a true experience that I reported at the time (below). 

 

2 points:

- There are limits to the value of anecdotal information, as the differences between your anecdotal information and mine show. Maybe proper research would show that particular races are worse at social distancing, maybe not, but better to delay judgment until such balanced information is available, rather than make assumptions based on anecdotal experiences.

- You seem to focus on the race of the people you saw. Yet, by your account, whereas at least 1 man was non-Asian, all of them seem to have been male and it sounds as if all were young(ish). Why aren't you also drawing attention to the "male community" and the "young community"?

 

Here's my post (8th April, old Coronavirus thread). I didn't mention their race but most (maybe not all) the blokes I saw were white. Of course, my anecdotal report that they were overwhelmingly male and young is also of limited value:

 

"Just went for my once-every-couple-of-days walk round local streets and Victoria Park. It was the most people I've seen out on the streets and in the park for about a month! In Victoria Park, there were lots of people going around in pairs and quite a number in threes and fours - almost entirely young men, so probably very few who were couples or from the same household. It was hard to physically avoid people at times. There was even a bloke exercising on the climbing frame in the closed-down children's playground - and a couple of blokes ran past in front of me, stopped and one of them was repeatedly spitting on the pavement not that far from me...."

I stand by what my own eyes are telling me.

You are, hypocritically, making assumptions.  I did not state the folk I saw on Western Park were all young. At least two I saw were in their 50s I would guess.

I do hope you are not  implying a racist element to my observations. I have a genuine and professional concern re this and have spent a good deal of my time supporting shielded folk from those Asian communities.

 

Edited 19 June 2020 by Free Falling Foxes

[Alf Bentley]

27 minutes ago, Free Falling Foxes said:

I stand by what my own eyes are telling me.

 

See my comments about anecdotal evidence being of limited value. I'm not doubting your eyes, but my eyes tell me that most of those not social distancing are young white men (I live in a majority, but not entirely white area). Someone in Durham might agree with me. The eyes of people living in Bradford, Hampstead, Brixton, France or India might tell them very different things. That's why proper research is done - because anecdotal reports are of limited value.

 

I'm not saying there is not a particular problem over lack of social distancing in Asian communities. There might be, I have no idea. But I'd want to see better evidence than the anecdotes you've quoted. 

 

Quote

You are, hypocritically, making assumptions.  I did not state the folk I saw on Western Park were all young. At least two I saw were in their 50s I would guess.

 

I'm not sure how I've been hypocritical, but it does seem that I made a false (if partial and understandable) assumption, so I apologise for that.

 

You described a group of 7 "lads", who presumably were young, and 9 blokes doing "some sort of training".

I wrongly assumed that blokes doing training were likely to be young, though I said "it sounds as if all were youngish", not that they were "all young" - so you've misquoted me there.

 

Quote

I do hope you are not  implying a racist element to my obsevations. I have a genuine and professional concern re this and have spent a good deal of my time supporting shielded folk from those communities.

 

 

I work on the assumption that, while only a small minority of people feel race hatred or racial superiority, the vast majority of us (of every race) have mildly racist patterns of thought. That includes me.....

- In the 80s, I was on a bus when a load of black youths started getting rowdy. I noticed that I felt threatened in a way that I wouldn't have done if it had been white youths. In fact, they were just messing around & I was being mildly racist.

- Same era, 3 of my favourite bands were the Jesus & Mary Chain, the Pogues & Public Enemy (the first two being white bands, the latter black, but all with the reputation of having rowdy gigs). I went to see J&M Chain a couple of times, Pogues several times, but opted out of going to Public Enemy out of concern that, as a white bloke, I might be at risk in an overwhelmingly black audience.....mildly racist of me again, I'd say.

- Similarly, I once got annoyed with 2 Irish mates avoiding giving a straight answer to a question and had a go about "the Irish" doing this....definite racism (and I'm of Irish parentage) for which I apologised; I should have had a go at them as individuals, if I was unhappy with their actions.

 

If you have no element of racism in your thinking, you're in a tiny minority, in my view - and presumably a better man than me, in that regard.

 

I did wonder whether there was a racist element to your observations. That is why I challenged you about your thinking - I'd see it as challenging, not implying, though the challenge clearly implies that I was wondering if you were being racist.

 

You haven't answered the question I put to you: if the people you saw were all male, mainly young and mainly Asian, why did you focus only on their race?

That question is all the more valid now I've pointed out that the people I saw with "my own eyes" were also mainly male and young, but were mainly white.

 

Good for you if you have a genuine professional concern and spend time supporting people from Asian communities.

If you're in that tiny minority who never has even a mildly racist thought, good on you again. But it never harms anyone to challenge their own thinking.

[Free Falling Foxes]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

See my comments about anecdotal evidence being of limited value. I'm not doubting your eyes, but my eyes tell me that most of those not social distancing are young white men (I live in a majority, but not entirely white area). Someone in Durham might agree with me. The eyes of people living in Bradford, Hampstead, Brixton, France or India might tell them very different things. That's why proper research is done - because anecdotal reports are of limited value.

 

I'm not saying there is not a particular problem over lack of social distancing in Asian communities. There might be, I have no idea. But I'd want to see better evidence than the anecdotes you've quoted. 

 

 

I'm not sure how I've been hypocritical, but it does seem that I made a false (if partial and understandable) assumption, so I apologise for that.

 

You described a group of 7 "lads", who presumably were young, and 9 blokes doing "some sort of training".

I wrongly assumed that blokes doing training were likely to be young, though I said "it sounds as if all were youngish", not that they were "all young" - so you've misquoted me there.

 

 

I work on the assumption that, while only a small minority of people feel race hatred or racial superiority, the vast majority of us (of every race) have mildly racist patterns of thought. That includes me.....

- In the 80s, I was on a bus when a load of black youths started getting rowdy. I noticed that I felt threatened in a way that I wouldn't have done if it had been white youths. In fact, they were just messing around & I was being mildly racist.

- Same era, 3 of my favourite bands were the Jesus & Mary Chain, the Pogues & Public Enemy (the first two being white bands, the latter black, but all with the reputation of having rowdy gigs). I went to see J&M Chain a couple of times, Pogues several times, but opted out of going to Public Enemy out of concern that, as a white bloke, I might be at risk in an overwhelmingly black audience.....mildly racist of me again, I'd say.

- Similarly, I once got annoyed with 2 Irish mates avoiding giving a straight answer to a question and had a go about "the Irish" doing this....definite racism (and I'm of Irish parentage) for which I apologised; I should have had a go at them as individuals, if I was unhappy with their actions.

 

If you have no element of racism in your thinking, you're in a tiny minority, in my view - and presumably a better man than me, in that regard.

 

I did wonder whether there was a racist element to your observations. That is why I challenged you about your thinking - I'd see it as challenging, not implying, though the challenge clearly implies that I was wondering if you were being racist.

 

You haven't answered the question I put to you: if the people you saw were all male, mainly young and mainly Asian, why did you focus only on their race?

That question is all the more valid now I've pointed out that the people I saw with "my own eyes" were also mainly male and young, but were mainly white.

 

Good for you if you have a genuine professional concern and spend time supporting people from Asian communities.

If you're in that tiny minority who never has even a mildly racist thought, good on you again. But it never harms anyone to challenge their own thinking.

You mentioned I didn't answer a question you posed.

I referred to race originally because of the news item re the outbreak in Leicester. The news report (East Midlands) were covering this very angle at my time of posting

 

 

Regards any hidden/latent racism we may or may not all pocess, I do have a view that when folk even begin to raise the notion of describing people by their colour, they feel they are treading on egg shells and this can be counter productive.

Sometime ago I recall the police issuing a discription of a mugger. They gave the usual info such as height, age, what he was wearing and....... that he was black.

They were criticised for that reference with someone actually asking if it was necessary. Errr, yes.

 

One of my own colleagues in a team meeting before the lockdown; was explaining she had been to see a gentleman who she had difficulty understanding and an interpreter may be necessary. She went on to say he was a black gentleman with a very heavy accent. But after saying 'black' she paused and put her hand to her mouth and said sorry, I shouldn't have said that. As I say, walking on eggshells.

 

You mentioned seeing people spitting in a earlier reply and purposely did not refer to the race of the person. They may have been of any colour but it is recognised, and thankfully accepted, that this is more prevalent in Asian communities and educating folk in those areas is taking place. If it had been dismissed as a race/cultural issue and ignored the situation with Covid nay have been far worse.

 

Interesting debate to have with you however.

 

Edit: As I posted this we received an alert email re the outbreak in the North East of the city. Something is causing such localised outbreak and we do need to look at the all possible causes without fear or favour.

 

Edited 19 June 2020 by Free Falling Foxes

[Alf Bentley]

19 minutes ago, Free Falling Foxes said:

You mentioned I didn't answer a question you posed.

I referred to race originally because of the news item re the outbreak in Leicester. The news report (East Midlands) were covering this very angle.

 

Regards any hidden/latent racism we may or may not all pocess, I do have a view that when folk even begin to raise the notion of describing people by their colour, they feel they are treading on egg shells and this can be counter productive.

Sometime ago I recall the police issuing a discription of a mugger. They gave the usual info such as height, age, what he was wearing and....... that he was black.

They were criticised for that reference with someone actually asking if it was necessary. Errr, yes.

 

One of my own colleagues in a team meeting before the lockdown; was explaining she had been to see a gentleman who she had difficulty understanding and an interpreter may be necessary. She went on to say he was a black gentleman with a very heavy accent. But after saying 'black' she paused and put her hand to her mouth and said sorry, I shouldn't have said that. As I say, walking on eggshells.

 

You mentioned seeing people spitting in a earlier reply and purposely did not refer to the race of the person. They may have been of any colour but it is recognised, and thankfully accepted, that this is more prevalent in Asian communities and educating folk in those areas is taking place. If it had been dismissed as a race/cultural issue and ignored the situation with Covid nay have been far worse.

 

Interesting debate to have with you however.

 

 

Thanks for the civil explanation.

 

I've not seen the East Midlands News report and you didn't mention it before. Thanks for clarifying.

In your original post, you only mentioned things seen in your work role and the 2 groups of Asian men you'd seen - and then said when you'd "heard the news that there was a outbreak in Leicester [you'd] figured why".

 

I agree that it's ridiculous for the police or anyone else not to mention someone's colour or racial appearance where that's relevant. It certainly was relevant in the case of the mugging that you mention.

In the second example you quote, the bloke's colour wasn't really relevant as the issue was his accent. But I don't see mentioning his colour as causing great offence. Though, maybe it suggests your colleague hasn't dealt with many black people or is a bit uneasy dealing with them for some reason. If she apologised because she thought people should never be described as "black", I'd say she was wrong - but if she apologised because she realised his colour was irrelevant, maybe she was right and showed self-awareness in apologising?

 

I completely agree that people shouldn't be treading on eggshells and that too much pedantry over precise terminology and codes of conduct can be very counter-productive.

But I'm also aware that people sometimes use or even exaggerate issues over terminology and expected conduct as a tactic through which to surreptitiously oppose race equality or anti-racism. This can range from people who are a bit uneasy about living in a multiracial society through to closet racists. It can be a handy tactic as they know that overt opposition to anti-racism would be condemned by most people. I'm not suggesting this applies either to you or to your colleague.

 

The joggers I mentioned, one of whom spat near me, were white, though I think they were Eastern European (I heard them speak in a foreign language I didn't recognise). Again, I don't know anything about prevalence of spitting by race. I've certainly seen Asian blokes spitting - and white blokes spitting. Indeed, I must admit that until recent months I occasionally spat myself, though only when I was well away from people - and I've completely stopped since Covid and will hopefully not resume it.

I do agree that where racial/cultural issues are relevant, they shouldn't be ignored - I've said that before re. the prominence of men of Pakistani origin in certain forms of child abuse (even if white men dominate other forms of abuse).

 

Yes, interesting debate. But let's end it there as we don't want to hijack what is supposed to be the coronavirus thread.

[foxile5]

Not sure if I'm being thick but infection rates seem to be rising from minus numbers upwards in a lot of areas with no diminishing r rate. This is bad isn't it? And not in keeping with the reduction of alert status? 

 

Or am I not understanding the figures correctly? 

[st albans fox]

A study of n Italian sewage samples from December shows traces of the virus ........assuming that this is a non contaminated sample and genuine then this backs up the idea that the virus was circulating back end last year .... perhaps the first arrival of this virus wasn’t as virulent and developed over a couple months to become more so ?  Presumably that means it could also go back the other way ???

[Countryfox]

It’s coming back isn’t it ...    here ...   worldwide ..... 

[Trumpet]

48 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

It’s coming back isn’t it ...    here ...   worldwide ..... 

Well our daily cases are as low as they’ve been since March and we’re actually able to test (as far as I’m aware) everyone now.

 

How would our peak number of daily new cases have looked if we could’ve tested everyone with symptoms? Significantly higher no doubt. 
 

Are the daily cases going up or something? 

Edited 20 June 2020 by Wet Trump

[Nalis]

You wonder how many people have had it in the UK, remember reading somewhere in March that you basically add a zero to the confirmed cases to get a true understanding of cases including asymptomatic cases. Not sure if it applies now or not but its not inconceivable to think 3 million of us have had some sort of form of it.

[Sampson]

20 hours ago, foxile5 said:

Not sure if I'm being thick but infection rates seem to be rising from minus numbers upwards in a lot of areas with no diminishing r rate. This is bad isn't it? And not in keeping with the reduction of alert status? 

 

Or am I not understanding the figures correctly? 

Our daily deaths and daily cases are still continuing to go down even with way more testing available.

 

If anything the reduction in number of deaths has been speeding up the past couple of weeks which is great.

 

Where have you seen these figures?

[st albans fox]

What?????

 

That's the sort of thing we're looking at for how do you make it safe to open things," Hancock told Sky News' Sophy Ridge on Sunday.

"And things like wearing a face mask, which reduces the transmission clearly,

 

they spent months telling us the opposite ????

[st albans fox]

23 hours ago, Sampson said:

Our daily deaths and daily cases are still continuing to go down even with way more testing available.

 

If anything the reduction in number of deaths has been speeding up the past couple of weeks which is great.

 

Where have you seen these figures?

Without wanting to sound callous, looking forward, I’m not really interested in the number of deaths at the moment. They are a reflection of what was going on three to eight weeks ago ......  and even hospital admissions are not ‘live data’. We are at a stage where we need to know how transmission of the virus is day by day and the best data we have on that is cases.   A percentage of those cases will result in hospital admission and subsequently fatalities .....the positive cases, now we have a decent level of testing is what we have to be watching carefully !!!

[bovril]

On 20/06/2020 at 12:02, Sampson said:

Our daily deaths and daily cases are still continuing to go down even with way more testing available.

 

If anything the reduction in number of deaths has been speeding up the past couple of weeks which is great.

 

Where have you seen these figures?

I'm worried that we're still seeing on average around 150 deaths a day, in the summer, after 3 months of lockdown, with the majority of people taking hygiene and social distancing measures. Doesn't bode well for the winter. 

[Sampson]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

Without wanting to sound callous, looking forward, I’m not really interested in the number of deaths at the moment. They are a reflection of what was going on three to eight weeks ago ......  and even hospital admissions are not ‘live data’. We are at a stage where we need to know how transmission of the virus is day by day and the best data we have on that is cases.   A percentage of those cases will result in hospital admission and subsequently fatalities .....the positive cases, now we have a decent level of testing is what we have to be watching carefully !!!

But what are you basing this on? It's not callous, it's just doom-mongering. Absolutely all the evidence is showing we're still in a good downward trend and there's nothing suggesting that is going to change anytime soon.

 

Cases are coming down as well. Rolling 7 day average has gone from around 1,500 a day to 1,250 a day over the past 10 days or so.

 

Cases are very misleading though because it's entirely based on testing. It's a very difficult stat to get hold of. And they're still going down.

 

36 minutes ago, bovril said:

I'm worried that we're still seeing on average around 150 deaths a day, in the summer, after 3 months of lockdown, with the majority of people taking hygiene and social distancing measures. Doesn't bode well for the winter. 

The season thing is not going to have much of ab impact for a new virus though. Southern hemisphere states currently going through their winter have had seemingly no advantage in how fast it spreads. Scientists seem to be in broad agreement so far that the summer has made little impact.

 

Also it dropped under 150 deaths 4 days ago. The 7 day average had already got down to 140 yesterday in the space of 4 days. It's declining at a good rate. These things just don't suddenly disappear, they descend gradually. It's going to take time for deaths and cases to fully come down. But overall deaths has come down to a pretty standard rate now for this time of year. That's less than the pretty typical of the number of people dying a day from other common causes like heart disease, alzheimers/dementia and cancer than there is covid now for comparison. 

 

An average of about 210 people died a day of alzheimer's/dementia last year for example.

Edited 21 June 2020 by Sampson

[st albans fox]

48 minutes ago, Sampson said:

But what are you basing this on? It's not callous, it's just doom-mongering. Absolutely all the evidence is showing we're still in a good downward trend and there's nothing suggesting that is going to change anytime soon.

 

I suspect you misunderstood my post ..... my point being that the relevant data at the moment is daily cases.  Deaths and hospital admissions is a snapshot of history and as lockdown is eased its the live data which is most important as it reveals how much affect relaxations of restrictions has had on the transmission of the virus  
 

48 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Cases are coming down as well. Rolling 7 day average has gone from around 1,500 a day to 1,250 a day over the past 10 days or so.

 

Cases are very misleading though because it's entirely based on testing. It's a very difficult stat to get hold of. And they're still going down.

cases are not misleading .....careful or you’ll start to sound ‘trumpesque’!   We are now undertaking widespread testing and should be picking up the vast majority of symptomatic cases. I appreciate that if you test more then you find more cases but I’m not making comparisons with history, I’m merely noting how many people are newly infected on a daily basis. 

 

48 minutes ago, Sampson said:

 

The season thing is not going to have much of ab impact for a new virus though.
Southern hemisphere states currently going through their winter have had seemingly no advantage in how fast it spreads. Scientists seem to be in broad agreement so far that the summer has made little impact.

winter should encourage transmission ....why would they have an advantage in their winter ?? To be honest, not much of the populated Southern Hemisphere suffers the kind of cool/cold winter weather that the northern hemisphere does so less impactful anyway

 

48 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Also it dropped under 150 deaths 4 days ago. The 7 day average had already got down to 140 yesterday in the space of 4 days. It's declining at a good rate. These things just don't suddenly disappear, they descend gradually. It's going to take time for deaths and cases to fully come down. But overall deaths has come down to a pretty standard rate now for this time of year. That's less than the pretty typical of the number of people dying a day from other common causes like heart disease, alzheimers/dementia and cancer than there is covid now for comparison. 

 

An average of about 210 people died a day of alzheimer's/dementia last year for example.

Nothing to disagree with on that !

[Leicester_Loyal]

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-germanys-r-number-rockets-again-from-1-79-to-2-88-12012143

 

Germanys R number currently at 2.88!

[yorkie1999]

29 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-germanys-r-number-rockets-again-from-1-79-to-2-88-12012143

 

Germanys R number currently at 2.88!

Wonder what  effect will that have on Spain now they’ve opened up to German holiday makers

[foxile5]

32 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-germanys-r-number-rockets-again-from-1-79-to-2-88-12012143

 

Germanys R number currently at 2.88!

Oh dear. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

It's obviously only a 4 day average and a small outbreak can push the number right up, but it's still not good.

[StanSP]

41 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-germanys-r-number-rockets-again-from-1-79-to-2-88-12012143

 

Germanys R number currently at 2.88!

 

10 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Wonder what  effect will that have on Spain now they’ve opened up to German holiday makers

 

1 minute ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

It's obviously only a 4 day average and a small outbreak can push the number right up, but it's still not good.

Yeah was just gonna say, small localised outbreaks on a low number of cases can make it look a bit skewed... 

 

[Costock_Fox]

It shows the importance of having local data and managing in clusters. Judging by the level of infections in parts of Leicester  it wouldn’t shock me at all they locked them parts down.

[yorkie1999]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

 

 

Yeah was just gonna say, small localised outbreaks on a low number of cases can make it look a bit skewed... 

 

So, Is  it reproduction rates that are local or is it, as was previously being calculated, reproduction rates at a national level because the differences are a big factor. The report says Germany, not a town or city in Germany. Sounds to me like he’s trying to put a positive spin on things. It’s kinda like saying the r value in Leicester is 3 but the r value in the U.K. is .5 because Leicester is only a very small percentage of the U.K.,.... even though we did win the league.

  

[fuchsntf]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

 

 

Yeah was just gonna say, small localised outbreaks on a low number of cases can make it look a bit skewed... 

 

Major und large slaughterhouses,employing Wunderland Eastern european workers and supporting shit squalid  accomodation...

Vorsprung durch Technik ...

[Ollie93]

20 hours ago, bovril said:

I'm worried that we're still seeing on average around 150 deaths a day, in the summer, after 3 months of lockdown, with the majority of people taking hygiene and social distancing measures. Doesn't bode well for the winter. 

These deaths would be if they've caught the virus 3-4 weeks ago though. It's always delayed, I'm hopeful that by mid-July, deaths will fall below 100.

[Super_horns]

I think people would rather keep the social distancing rules than have to wear masks all the time tbh.

 

 

Particularly with the hot weather coming up.

 

Tbh from what I read and hear a lot would just prefer to get back to normal which clearly cannot happen.