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Premier League Thread 2019/20

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2 hours ago, Deeg67 said:

Just assume they'll both get to 65 and we need that many to get in.  On paper it should be easy breezy.  The way we look right now that number seems a long way off.

Our season hinges on this run of games after Saturday through to and including April. Win at least half to two thirds of them and we are within touching distance. I'd expect us to as well.

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11 hours ago, Deeg67 said:

10 points on Tottenham, 9 on Chelsea with 12 to play.  Assuming Man City's ban is overturned this is a long way from locked down.  If we continue gathering points at the same rate as the last couple of months, both those sides could easily catch us.

 

Remember when there were know nowts on here cheering Spurs on to beat Man City because they had their eye on second rather than being concerned about 5th place?

 

That 14pt gap we enjoyed is  now 10pts. :blush:

Edited by Gerard
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Think we'll need at least another 18/19 points from our final 12 games to finish in the top four.

 

In theory we should be fine but I'm starting to become a bit nervous.

 

Some of the performances recently have been pretty poor, and we really need to get Ndidi back.

 

Our fixtures against Villa/Brighton/Palace/Norwich/Bournemouth will be key. Win all of them and we're pretty much there.

 

 

Edited by leicesterseddon
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I know it’s all In our hands but would love a little run of wins starting Saturday and a few below not picking up points just to ease the pressure. Think if we press Man City from the start on Saturday we can get a result there heads may not be on it and we need to take advantage if that’s the case. Wouldn’t mind Chelsea winning tonight to keep Utd away a bit. Spurs are closing in on 4th but we’re lucky yesterday in the end. There defence can also be got at so hopefully they will lose a few in the next few weeks. 

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All the talk is how there is going to be a battle for fifth place now. No-one mentioning either us or Man city, the assumption being that the top 3 is pretty fixed. many on here are predicting doom and gloom and that we are going to collapse etc. Man city could easily be two points and a place behind us come Saturday night. Nobody seems to be suggesting that the impending ban sends them into some sort of freefall as moral plummets. If that happened, then fifth place is no longer the target for the chasing pack and its top four or bust. I do not think for one moment this is going to happen, and top 3 is pretty much sorted. The biggest plus to all of this for me is the fact that suddenly an opportunity has arisen for a few more teams, who hopefully may well be spurred on to take points from UtD, Spurs Chelsea etc, which will ultimately be to our advantage if we do falter somewhat.

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12 minutes ago, urban fox said:

All the talk is how there is going to be a battle for fifth place now. No-one mentioning either us or Man city, the assumption being that the top 3 is pretty fixed. many on here are predicting doom and gloom and that we are going to collapse etc. Man city could easily be two points and a place behind us come Saturday night. Nobody seems to be suggesting that the impending ban sends them into some sort of freefall as moral plummets. If that happened, then fifth place is no longer the target for the chasing pack and its top four or bust. I do not think for one moment this is going to happen, and top 3 is pretty much sorted. The biggest plus to all of this for me is the fact that suddenly an opportunity has arisen for a few more teams, who hopefully may well be spurred on to take points from UtD, Spurs Chelsea etc, which will ultimately be to our advantage if we do falter somewhat.

We've pretty much already collapsed starting with the Man City game.  The question is whether we'll be able to pull out of it in time.

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Fivethirtyeight now factor in the Man City ban into their odds for the CL places.  (Assuming it sticks) they project we are good as in.  And there is now much more to play for, from Spurs on down.

 

The more I think about it, the more I think the ban will provide money to a side (Spurs or possibly Man United) who need it to keep vastly outspending the likes of us.  It’s deserved, and it’s good for football, but maybe not good for us. 

 

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1 hour ago, leicesterseddon said:

Think we'll need at least another 18/19 points from our final 12 games to finish in the top four.

 

In theory we should be fine but I'm starting to become a bit nervous.

 

Some of the performances recently have been pretty poor, and we really need to get Ndidi back.

 

Our fixtures against Villa/Brighton/Palace/Norwich/Bournemouth will be key. Win all of them and we're pretty much there.

 

 

You think Spurs or Sheff Utd will win 9/10 of their remaining 12 games? No chance. They've also got to play each other so there's points dropped.

 

We'll need another 14/15 points, especially as we've got a better GD too. 4 wins and a couple of draws or 5 wins will see us through.

 

1 hour ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Top four has been achieved with points total as low as 63 in the past few years 

I think it'll be similar this year, 64 points is my guess.

Edited by Leicester_Loyal
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49 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

For context of this. If we continue our form of the least five games, we will get 62 points -  a point a game. 

 

To reach 63, the following require:-

Chelsea requiring 22 out of a possible 39. - 8 wins out of 13. 

Tottenham requiring 23 from 36 - 8 from 12. 

Sheffield United 24 from 36 - 8 from 12. 

Wolves 27 from 36 - 9 from 12. 

Everton 27 from 36 - 9 from 12. 

Manchester United 28 from 39 - 10 from 13. 

 

Saying we get 68:-

Chelsea 28/39 - 10/13

Spurs 29/36 - 10/12

Sheffield Utd 30/36 - 10/12

Wolves 33/36 - 11/12 

Everton 33/36 - 11/12

Manchester Utd 34/39 - 11/13 

 

Now bear in mind we play Spurs, Sheffield United, Everton and Man Utd of those teams....although none until April. Meaning March is a big time to make inroads. The run of Norwich, Villa, Watford, Brighton is looking crucial. 

 

The between now and end of March the following games between the chasing pack:-

Chelsea v Spurs - Sat 22 Feb 

Spurs v Wolves - Sun 30 Feb

Everton v Manchester United - Sun 30 Feb 

Chelsea v Everton - Sun 8 Mar

*Manchester U v Manchester C- Sun 8 March

Spurs v Manchester U - Sun 15 March

*Everton v Liverpool - Mon 16 March

*Chelsea v Manchester C - Sat 21 March 

Manchester U v Sheffield U - Sat 21 March

 

With these fixtures over the coming weeks, there's a big chance there to finish this all off. Chelsea are in a critical period. Spurs and Everton face three teams involved in it all. Wolves have the best run-in but Europa League to compete with. Man U are not far off last chance saloon. 

 

To further context the situation, on points per game Wolves, Everton and Man U will gain 53...we are currently on 50. Current form (over 5 games) suggest somewhere around 63/64 will be enough. 

Pretty much yes. I just couldn't be bothered to type all of that out, we'll just scrape together enough points and the other teams will all drop points against each other meaning we'll qualify.

 

Happy days:)

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