The Politics Thread 2020

[RobHawk]

Bojo the clown strikes again

[Kopfkino]

2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

There is most certainly an element of voting for Biden merely to get Trump out going on, but I don't think that will have much of an effect on the landscape considering the degree of polarisation Trump has inflicted will increase turnout just to get him out anyway.

 

See point above about the Bradley Effect and I don't actually think it plays as big a role as some might say it does - Trumps success in 2016 wasn't totally consistent with a "shy Trump" effect: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/shy-voters-probably-arent-why-the-polls-missed-trump/

 

2020 isn't 2016, that it was overstated in 2016 isn't reason that it doesn't exist in 2020. Secondly, the 538 article is titled "‘Shy’ Voters Probably Aren’t Why The Polls Missed Trump" but I'm not saying it's why they missed it, I'm saying it's a variable amongst variables that will be stronger this time. Intuitively it makes more sense that it's stronger now, Trump is more toxic figure and Biden, whilst not necessarily rousing, isn't Clinton-toxic. The argument against it is the small number of other/undecided, this is the most likely place to hide although the lack of enthusiasm for Biden could indicate some are hiding there. 

 

I'd be hanging my hat on his lead on the economy as the reason why I'd be edging towards agreeing with the currents odds rather than the models. I think that lead only goes in one direction. And I also expect differential nonresponse to be a problem for the polls yet again. 

 

 

[Izzy]

10 minutes ago, RobHawk said:

Bojo the clown strikes again

Got himself a PT now though apparently so it’s all good 

[Desabafar]

the uk workers are still not back to going into the office and the government is trying to get people to do this. i think employers should be flexible in letting people work where they want and not force people back to offices, this event is the change lives need, it makes no sense to commute etc

Edited 27 August 2020 by Desabafar

[Strokes]

48 minutes ago, Desabafar said:

the uk workers are still not back to going into the office and the government is trying to get people to do this. i think employers should be flexible in letting people work where they want and not force people back to offices, this event is the change lives need, it makes no sense to commute etc

Definitely for health reasons, environmental reasons but most importantly, to keep the twats out my way on the roads.

[Leicester_Loyal]

Ed Davey says we need to get the Brexit voters back on side, after telling them 'Bollocks to Brexit' for 3 years

 

This only a few years after screwing over all of the student/future student population who voted for them. I think we'll be seeing a 2 party election again in four years sadly.

[leicsmac]

5 hours ago, Kopfkino said:

 

2020 isn't 2016, that it was overstated in 2016 isn't reason that it doesn't exist in 2020. Secondly, the 538 article is titled "‘Shy’ Voters Probably Aren’t Why The Polls Missed Trump" but I'm not saying it's why they missed it, I'm saying it's a variable amongst variables that will be stronger this time. Intuitively it makes more sense that it's stronger now, Trump is more toxic figure and Biden, whilst not necessarily rousing, isn't Clinton-toxic. The argument against it is the small number of other/undecided, this is the most likely place to hide although the lack of enthusiasm for Biden could indicate some are hiding there. 

 

I'd be hanging my hat on his lead on the economy as the reason why I'd be edging towards agreeing with the currents odds rather than the models. I think that lead only goes in one direction. And I also expect differential nonresponse to be a problem for the polls yet again. 

 

 

It's possible that you're right and that it hasn't been accounted for well, I guess, but given the noise there was about it last time I can't see why it wouldn't be factored in at least reasonably accurate (as much as is possible anyway) this time.

 

Current odds put it at about 50/50 - I'd be interested to know why those odds and the poll projections have tilted somewhat towards Trump recently. Convention bounce, perhaps? I guess we'll find out.

[CosbehFox]

Gotta love the yougov poll where the only age group where the majority supports a return to offices is 65 years plus! 

 

Another sign of where the UK kicks itself in the balls 

[Finnaldo]

1 minute ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Gotta love the yougov poll where the only age group where the majority supports a return to offices is 65 years plus! 

 

Another sign of where the UK kicks itself in the balls 

Try and boost the economy whilst pleasing their base age demographic who love moaning about making younger generations’ lives harder, a winning strategy. 
 

It’s truly bizarre though, I’m WFH and I’ll be going back into the office at first opportunity, but I have a workmate with a young family who’s been enjoying life at home with his new daughter, this ‘more likely to be sacked’ shtick is anti-progress and just going to empower backwards bosses trying to force unnecessary working restrictions on their workers for an ego boost.

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-53942272

 

Interesting breakdown of the last day of the Repub convention. Not much that's surprising, but it does lay out what their platform is.

 

It's going to be an interesting two or so months (or longer, depending on how willing Trump is to actually take defeat should be lose).

[katieakita]

Ed Davey  at least he has had the decency to back the  call for a full judicial review into the conduct of the 100% government owned Post Office, BEIS officials and government ministers into what has been called the biggest miscarriage of justice in modern history. Of course anybody who has been following this knows 2 of the most incompetent corrupt Ministers involved in this scandal are Swinson and Davey. 

[Corky]

On 28/08/2020 at 10:24, Finnaldo said:

Try and boost the economy whilst pleasing their base age demographic who love moaning about making younger generations’ lives harder, a winning strategy. 
 

It’s truly bizarre though, I’m WFH and I’ll be going back into the office at first opportunity, but I have a workmate with a young family who’s been enjoying life at home with his new daughter, this ‘more likely to be sacked’ shtick is anti-progress and just going to empower backwards bosses trying to force unnecessary working restrictions on their workers for an ego boost.

How can they sack people for working from home? If it is possible to do the work from home in a safe environment, why is that a bad thing?

 

In effect, you're under pressure to come in and help other businesses. As a noble gesture, great. But it isn't your responsibility.

[davieG]

On 28/08/2020 at 10:24, Finnaldo said:

base age demographic who love moaning about making younger generations’ lives harder,

Don’t generalise please nothing could be further from the truth from all the people I come in touch with. They all want the best for their kids, why wouldn’t they?

[ousefox]

1 hour ago, Corky said:

How can they sack people for working from home? If it is possible to do the work from home in a safe environment, why is that a bad thing?

 

In effect, you're under pressure to come in and help other businesses. As a noble gesture, great. But it isn't your responsibility.

It's some BS threat they've put in to the Tory press so their mates with commercial property to rent don't lose out.

[Dr The Singh]

31 minutes ago, ousefox said:

It's some BS threat they've put in to the Tory press so their mates with commercial property to rent don't lose out.

NAA mate it's oil money, people aren't filling there tanks

[Smudge]

On 27/08/2020 at 20:13, leicsmac said:

It's possible that you're right and that it hasn't been accounted for well, I guess, but given the noise there was about it last time I can't see why it wouldn't be factored in at least reasonably accurate (as much as is possible anyway) this time.

 

Current odds put it at about 50/50 - I'd be interested to know why those odds and the poll projections have tilted somewhat towards Trump recently. Convention bounce, perhaps? I guess we'll find out

 

Trump currently -120 and Biden +100 i.e 6/5 on and evens  

[Finnaldo]

1 hour ago, davieG said:

Don’t generalise please nothing could be further from the truth from all the people I come in touch with. They all want the best for their kids, why wouldn’t they?

Apologies Davie, you’re right. But from those statistics there’s clearly an outdated notion that people have to be in the office to work effectively, from a demographic where the majority are retired. 

[davieG]

30 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

Apologies Davie, you’re right. But from those statistics there’s clearly an outdated notion that people have to be in the office to work effectively, from a demographic where the majority are retired. 

Well it’s rubbish the last job I had and it’s a few years ago now I spent half my time working from home, even then I was totally connected to the organisations network with access to all the relevant info and of course a phone. I didn’t have video so it must be even easier/ better now.

[Leicester_Loyal]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8677749/Britain-faces-biggest-tax-rises-generation-pay-coronavirus-bailouts.html

 

Strap yourselves in!

[st albans fox]

15 hours ago, Corky said:

How can they sack people for working from home? If it is possible to do the work from home in a safe environment, why is that a bad thing?

 

In effect, you're under pressure to come in and help other businesses. As a noble gesture, great. But it isn't your responsibility.

But it’s all connected - very few of us are islands ........if a chunk of the economy fails because it isn’t being utilised then that will have a negative effect on all the other parts of the economy.  That means companies in others parts of the economy cutting back which could mean you lose your job in the end .....

[st albans fox]

50 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8677749/Britain-faces-biggest-tax-rises-generation-pay-coronavirus-bailouts.html

 

Strap yourselves in!

Not sure what the options are

 

they can increase my CT as much as they like for this year and next year!

 

they need the economy to come back but increasing business taxes will encourage money to be stashed in future company valuations re stock write downs than be spent as it is now. and companies not making their real value official will mean that credit insurance will not be forthcoming which stifles trading even more. 
 

i’m glad that it’s not my problem to solve !

[Kopfkino]

1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8677749/Britain-faces-biggest-tax-rises-generation-pay-coronavirus-bailouts.html

 

Strap yourselves in!

 

They really need to bin off the pensions triple lock. Terrible ongoing policy that's likely to be even more costly and generationally unfair in the coming years.

 

Labour were right to call for CGT to come into line with income and so doing that makes sense anyway.

 

Cutting foreign aid is easy and won't be unpopular but it's a terrible policy, should increase it if anything.

[StanSP]

 

 

[DJ Barry Hammond]

1 hour ago, Kopfkino said:

 

They really need to bin off the pensions triple lock. Terrible ongoing policy that's likely to be even more costly and generationally unfair in the coming years.

 

Labour were right to call for CGT to come into line with income and so doing that makes sense anyway.

 

Cutting foreign aid is easy and won't be unpopular but it's a terrible policy, should increase it if anything.

Foreign Aid is a tiny amount of the UK's overall budget though - the muted changes to it prior corona wasn't going to make much of dent in the debt mountain then, as it's effect will be even smaller now. 

 

Looking at the suggested measures, the Corporation Tax hike is probably a decent move because it's calculated on annual profits - so if a business isn't make money, it won't play, but if it has done well out of the Coronavirus situation (because their will be some winners in this), those businesses will be given a decision to make - pay the tax or reinvest the money into the business?

 

And taxing gains on second homes - again, people can be up in arms about it on a personal level if they like, but once again this is about taxing profit. 

That's not the same as taxing earnings's or consumption of goods - taxes that don't easily differentiate between those doing well and those doing not so.

 

Therefore whilst the middle and upper classes will complain - they have to realise it is they are the broadest group with the easiest accessible disposal income for the government to tax right now.

 

 

[st albans fox]

6 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

Foreign Aid is a tiny amount of the UK's overall budget though - the muted changes to it prior corona wasn't going to make much of dent in the debt mountain then, as it's effect will be even smaller now. 

 

Looking at the suggested measures, the Corporation Tax hike is probably a decent move because it's calculated on annual profits - so if a business isn't make money, it won't play, but if it has done well out of the Coronavirus situation (because their will be some winners in this), those businesses will be given a decision to make - pay the tax or reinvest the money into the business?

 

And taxing gains on second homes - again, people can be up in arms about it on a personal level if they like, but once again this is about taxing profit. 

That's not the same as taxing earnings's or consumption of goods - taxes that don't easily differentiate between those doing well and those doing not so.

 

Therefore whilst the middle and upper classes will complain - they have to realise it is they are the broadest group with the easiest accessible disposal income for the government to tax right now.

 

 

But the really wealthy will avoid it all as per usual 

 

that’s not entirely fair - there are exceptions who do pay more than their fair share .....