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jonthefox

The "do they mean us?" thread

By jonthefox, in Leicester City Forum

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ajthefox

ajthefox

Posted
Posted

Roger Bennett from Men in Blazers had a special podcast interview with Alan Pardew. At the end Pardew said some interesting things.

 

When talking about the top of the league: "Leicester, ourselves, Stoke, Southampton, Everton, and Tottenham are chasing hard this year."

 

And about the fourth Champions League place: "Chelsea have got a lot to do to get there. Then that leaves Liverpool, Everton, and Spurs I think as the three main contenders. Then you also have to look at us, Southampton, and Stoke."

 

Is he still bitter about Palace's defeat at Leicester? Does he honestly think Southampton and Stoke have a better chance at top 4 right now than us? Or is he just completely writing us off? 

 

 

Nah he just knows we're finishing top 3.

 

 

That's how I read that too. Like he's saying it's between allow them for the 4th spot.

 

Surely if Pardew thought we were going to finish top 3, he'd mention United?

 

I can't believe he would suggest Liverpool, Everton, Spurs, Southampton, Stoke and Palace all as better odds to finish 4th behind both Mancs teams and Arsenal, but he's talked about the 4th spot and not mentioned the top 4 teams.

Either he really respects us or doesn't respect us at all. I'm inclined to think it's the latter.

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WiFoxes

WiFoxes

Posted
Posted

Can Leicester City sustain success?

 

Leicester City, which carried 2,500-to-1 title odds at the start of the season, sit alone atop the Premier League table.

After 16 Premier League games last season, Leicester City ranked dead last with 10 points. The Foxes had two wins and 15 goals, the fourth fewest in the league.

After 16 Premier League games this season, Leicester City is in first place with 35 points. The Foxes have 10 wins (one shy of their total last season) and a league-leading 34 goals.

Leicester City is unbeaten in nine straight games in a first-division season for the first time since 1966.

Leicester forward Jamie Vardy leads the league with 15 goals, and he's scored or assisted in a Premier League-record 14 straight games.

Ranking third in the league with 11 goals, Riyad Mahrez has combined with Vardy for 26 goals. That's more than 15 Premier League teams, including Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea.

What in the name of the Leicester native Gary Lineker is going on in central England? And more intriguingly, is it sustainable?

Using advanced statistics and ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI), let's examine how Leicester City is succeeding and how likely that success is to continue.

What do underlying stats say?

Let's start with the obvious. Leicester City is scoring a ton of goals.

In Europe's top-five leagues this season, only five teams have scored more goals per game than Leicester's 2.12, and the list is impressive: Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, PSG, Barcelona and Real Madrid.

The Foxes are seventh in the Premier League alone in shots taken, which suggests they've been fortunate so far. However, Leicester City ranks third in the league in expected goals (the number of goals a team is projected to score based on the specific shots taken), as a result of taking quality shots.

Leicester's average shot distance of 17.7 yards is the third-shortest in the league, and the Foxes average 0.13 expected goals per shot, which is a close second to Arsenal among English teams.

That adds up to a plus-3.8 goals above average (GAA), meaning Leicester City has scored 3.8 goals more than the expected-goals metric anticipated, good for the second-highest mark in the league this season behind Everton's plus-6.9.

Projecting Leicester City's current pace over a full season yields an expected-goals total of plus-9.0. Over the previous five seasons, just four Premier League clubs produced a higher GAA in a season. Two of those teams won the title (2013-14 Man City and 2010-11 Man United); one narrowly missed (2013-14 Liverpool); and one oddly finished 12th (2013-14 Swansea City).

So Leicester appears to be overachieving, currently scoring on 42 percent of its shots on target, which would be the second-highest rate in the past six Premier League seasons.

The Foxes have also scored on 15 percent of their total shots this season, which would be the fourth-highest rate in the past six English seasons. Those numbers suggest Leicester City is due for a drop-off over the rest of the season.

Looking specifically at Leicester's top scorers, Mahrez leads the Premier League with a plus-5.11 GAA this season, and Vardy is third at plus-3.42. They've scored on a combined 25 percent of their shots, compared to the league average of 10 percent.

The stats indicate both are likely to slow down, though the rest of the team has a minus-4.73 GAA, so perhaps they can pick up the slack.

The good news for the Foxes is that they don't appear to be getting lucky defensively, ranking eighth in the league with 22 goals conceded. That's nearly identical to an expected-goals total of 21.3, and Leicester opponents rank between eighth and 12th in the league in all shooting rates.

One thing the Foxes are doing well is blocking shots. They've gotten in the way of 32 percent of their opponents' attempts this season, the fourth-highest rate in the league.

 

Shifting title odds

Before the season began, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook pegged Leicester City's title odds at 2,500-to-1, the fourth-worst in the league, and English bookmakers had Leicester's odds as high as 5,000-to-1.

Westgate has now reduced Leicester's odds to 20-1, the fourth-lowest in the league, translating to implied odds of about 5 percent.

SPI has the Foxes in a similar position, projecting them with a 4.2 percent chance to win the title. That's just behind third choice Manchester United at 6 percent but well off favorites Manchester City at 45 percent and Arsenal at 44 percent.

Leicester lags behind because of an offensive SPI rating that is good at 1.66, sixth-best in the league, but significantly short of leaders Man City (2.21) and Arsenal (2.06).

Leicester's defensive SPI rating of 1.35 is currently 15th in the league, also trailing City (1.00) and Arsenal (0.98).

Those numbers mean that City and Arsenal are each projected to score about half a goal more than Leicester on a neutral field against average opposition, while allowing a third of a goal less.

Leicester is currently projected for fourth place, holding a 60 percent chance to finish in the top four and get at least a Champions League qualifying berth.

With Man City and Arsenal near locks for the top four, SPI projects six other teams with at least an 8 percent chance to join them, though Leicester has double the odds of fifth-best Tottenham.

 

What lies ahead for Leicester

There's no arguing that Leicester City has had a favorable early schedule, playing only three games against last season's top-six teams during its first dozen games this season.

But at the halfway point of a month-long, six-game stretch that many thought would be decisive, the Foxes are still in first place after taking seven points from Manchester United, Swansea City and Chelsea.

Next up are consecutive trips to Merseyside on the 19th (Everton) and 26th (Liverpool), followed three days later by a home game against Manchester City.

SPI projects the Foxes to take a total of 3.05 points from this trio of games, with about a 25 percent chance of winning each one. Anything more than three points will improve Leicester City's title odds, and a win over Man City alone will nearly double Leicester's championship projections to almost 8 percent .

From a Champions League standpoint, winning any of the next three games would improve Leicester's hopes to about 72 percent, independent of other outcomes. Six points would push Leicester's top-four projection near 80 percent.

Even the nightmare scenario of three losses wouldn't be lethal to Leicester's Champions League dream, cutting its odds to about 40 percent, still fourth-best in the league.

If the Foxes hang onto a top-four spot, they would be the first team to finish that high within two seasons of being promoted since Nottingham Forest took third place in its first season back in the Premier League in 1994-95.

Newcastle did come close four seasons ago, finishing fifth two seasons after returning to the top flight. That is the only team to reach the top seven within two seasons of promotion in the past decade.

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fuchsntf

fuchsntf

Posted
Posted (edited)

In our exceptional run this season, the one point that as no logic in it whatsoever in all its angles,

Is that Leicester havent "played anybody as yet, or have had a favourable grouping of fixtures"

FIRSTLY, so what..!!! It wouldnt have been the first time, or a unique situation,the fact is

We have been one of 2-3 teams that have actually taken advantage of it, proven because of

records within the run we have taken, as individuals or as a team.

Other mediocre teams have had " nice fixture groupings" but havent produced

Experts /pundits over seasons and this, predicted swings and losses, we proved them wrong

I cant remember so much euphoria over any unbeaten run as this season, mainly I suppose

because of the even wider financial gaps, and the super earners, not producing, getting

tangled up within their own myths.

Norwich did have a great run, but I cant remember, it causing so much of a fuss.

late edit: Teams from 11th to 6th are in the next month playing "NOBODIES",

Lets see how they get on..!! Watford have the most difficult run...

Edited by fuchsntf
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MC Prussian

MC Prussian

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Posted (edited)

The "11 FREUNDE" coverage is just an interview with Robert Huth that took place in Manchester.

But it's worth mentioning that Huth has rarely given extended interviews in the past five to ten years.

 

I don't want to go too much into detail (heck, who knows German on here, anyway?), but it's a great read over seven pages, with a couple of references to the team, the quality of the team spirit and a few insights into the mechanisms of the squad and both Pearson and Ranieri.

They also talk about Huth's style of humour (he likes it black - remember the "sexy football show rolls into Leicester" bit?) and his activism on Twitter (including the odd genitals affair on Christmas 2014).

You get to know more about him and his beginnings at Chelsea where a teenage Huth had to fight off "assholes and arse-lickers", as he calls it.

 

He apparently has his own private driver so that he can take naps to and from his home further up Northwest. :D

He's never happy when he has to face Jamie Vardy in training ("he's a right pain in the ****").

And it is being said that our terrific end to last season was initiated by Pearson giving all players five days off during an international break. Huth and his family traveled to Dubai, three others to Barcelona.

According to Huth, Pearson himself only returned the Wednesday before the home game against West Ham.

Edited by MC Prussian
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Jacnah

Jacnah

Posted
Posted

The "11 FREUNDE" coverage is just an interview with Robert Huth that took place in Manchester.

But it's worth mentioning that Huth has rarely given extended interviews in the past five to ten years.

 

I don't want to go too much into detail (heck, who knows German on here, anyway?), but it's a great read over seven pages, with a couple of references to the team, the quality of the team spirit and a few insights into the mechanisms of the squad and both Pearson and Ranieri.

They also talk about Huth's style of humour (he likes it black - remember the "sexy football show rolls into Leicester" bit?) and his activism on Twitter (including the odd genitals affair on Christmas 2014).

You get to know more about him and his beginnings at Chelsea where a teenage Huth had to fight off "assholes and arse-lickers", as he calls it.

 

He apparently has his own private driver so that he can take naps to and from his home further up Northwest. :D

He's never happy when he has to face Jamie Vardy in training ("he's a right pain in the ****").

And it is being said that our terrific end to last season was initiated by Pearson giving all players five days off during an international break. Huth and his family traveled to Dubai, three others to Barcelona.

According to Huth, Pearson himself only returned the Wednesday before the home game against West Ham.

 

I love Huth. He's....'Proper'!!

 

You just know that given an opportunity he would have straight armed Costa the other night and I think Costa knew it as well. The problem is of course that he does accumulate bookings

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Captain...

Captain...

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Posted

 

It's a decent write-up but it ignores one key factor and that is the amount we have invested in the facilities, training and sports science, it feels like we are leaving no stone unturned in getting the best out of these players. It is bizarre that we seem to be the only ones doing this, what is the point of spending millions on players if you are not doing everything you can to ensure they are at their best. Training facilities, sports science, cryo-therapy chambers, anything to give us an advantage.

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Jacnah

Jacnah

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Posted

It's a decent write-up but it ignores one key factor and that is the amount we have invested in the facilities, training and sports science, it feels like we are leaving no stone unturned in getting the best out of these players. It is bizarre that we seem to be the only ones doing this, what is the point of spending millions on players if you are not doing everything you can to ensure they are at their best. Training facilities, sports science, cryo-therapy chambers, anything to give us an advantage.

good shout. I saw Peter Schmichael on Sky recently really emphasising that the club looks after its players and this is perhaps all part of that 

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Babylon

Babylon

Posted
Posted

The "11 FREUNDE" coverage is just an interview with Robert Huth that took place in Manchester.

But it's worth mentioning that Huth has rarely given extended interviews in the past five to ten years.

 

I don't want to go too much into detail (heck, who knows German on here, anyway?), but it's a great read over seven pages, with a couple of references to the team, the quality of the team spirit and a few insights into the mechanisms of the squad and both Pearson and Ranieri.

They also talk about Huth's style of humour (he likes it black - remember the "sexy football show rolls into Leicester" bit?) and his activism on Twitter (including the odd genitals affair on Christmas 2014).

You get to know more about him and his beginnings at Chelsea where a teenage Huth had to fight off "assholes and arse-lickers", as he calls it.

 

He apparently has his own private driver so that he can take naps to and from his home further up Northwest. :D

He's never happy when he has to face Jamie Vardy in training ("he's a right pain in the ****").

And it is being said that our terrific end to last season was initiated by Pearson giving all players five days off during an international break. Huth and his family traveled to Dubai, three others to Barcelona.

According to Huth, Pearson himself only returned the Wednesday before the home game against West Ham.

Surely you mean Cambiasso gave the players 5 days off?

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