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simFox

Corona Virus

By simFox, in General Chat

Mark
Message added by Mark

No political discussion in this topic. That is complaining about a country, a politician, a party and/or its voters, etc

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Trumpet

Trumpet

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, purpleronnie said:

How has germany managed to keep the death rate so low? 11,000 cases 27 deaths compared to our 2700 cases 104 deaths.

They’ve probably just tested more. The rate of deaths should be the same or thereabouts you’d expect - so assume we’ve actually got a load more cases.

nnfox

nnfox

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Lionator said:

There's a study which found that only 14% of the people who had the disease in Wuhan were ever diagnosed, with the other 86% being either asymptomatic or simply having such mild symptoms that they didn't even notice. So for each person who gets a diagnosis, 6 have the disease but will not get a diagnosis and a number of them probably won't even have symptoms. However you're still infectious even if you don't have symptoms, which is why we're having to see the measures that we are doing.

 

The positive news is that an antibody test is going to become available very soon. This means we can track who has had it and who hasn't as the body will have create antibodies to fight it. Once that's done then those who have had it can start life again as normal, whereas those without may have to still adhere to restrictions if the virus is still quite prevalent. This sort of thing will avoid us being in complete lockdown until a vaccine is found (phew).

 

Germany are most likely to be testing the hell out of people though. It could also be that younger people are being affected more and it's not reached elderly clusters like it has in Italy. Or quite simply that they have an exceptionally well resourced healthcare system. Probably a combo of the three.

Good, intelligent post.

davieG

davieG

Posted
Posted

It came as UK deaths reached 104 after a further 32 people died in England.

Confirmed cases in the UK rose to 2,626 on Wednesday, from 1,950 on Tuesday. There have been 56,221 tests carried out in the UK for Covid-19, of which 53,595 were confirmed negative.

The government says it plans to more than double the number of tests being carried out in England to 25,000 a day.

bmt

bmt

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Lionator said:

There's a study which found that only 14% of the people who had the disease in Wuhan were ever diagnosed, with the other 86% being either asymptomatic or simply having such mild symptoms that they didn't even notice. So for each person who gets a diagnosis, 6 have the disease but will not get a diagnosis and a number of them probably won't even have symptoms. However you're still infectious even if you don't have symptoms, which is why we're having to see the measures that we are doing.

 

The positive news is that an antibody test is going to become available very soon. This means we can track who has had it and who hasn't as the body will have create antibodies to fight it. Once that's done then those who have had it can start life again as normal, whereas those without may have to still adhere to restrictions if the virus is still quite prevalent. This sort of thing will avoid us being in complete lockdown until a vaccine is found (phew).

 

Germany are most likely to be testing the hell out of people though. It could also be that younger people are being affected more and it's not reached elderly clusters like it has in Italy. Or quite simply that they have an exceptionally well resourced healthcare system. Probably a combo of the three.

Wasn't it actually saying that 14% of those who tested positive had symptoms, otherwise they wouldn't know about the others. It was based on testing a group of people including with zero symptoms and the infection rate being much higher than the symptomatic rate.

 

Agree with everything else you've said. Information is the key to fighting this (as it is most things). The more we know, the more we can take sensible precautions without a total lockdown. It sounds very positive how quickly the antibody test will come through.

Paninistickers

Paninistickers

Posted
Posted

The antibody test surely mRNAs they'll have a better handle on modelling. 

 

The estimates are 1% death rate ATM tho the infections Vs deaths make it.look like 5%

 

I agree, those with antibodies can surely  be flagged up to resume work and.life. Become an elite race of people!  Classic distopian stuff. A script that's  got Rutger Hauer written all it!

Milo

Milo

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Paninistickers said:

The antibody test surely mRNAs they'll have a better handle on modelling. 

 

The estimates are 1% death rate ATM tho the infections Vs deaths make it.look like 5%

 

I agree, those with antibodies can surely  be flagged up to resume work and.life. Become an elite race of people!  Classic distopian stuff. A script that's  got Rutger Hauer written all it!

About 6 months too late, sadly 

Lionator

Lionator

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

The antibody test surely mRNAs they'll have a better handle on modelling. 

 

The estimates are 1% death rate ATM tho the infections Vs deaths make it.look like 5%

 

I agree, those with antibodies can surely  be flagged up to resume work and.life. Become an elite race of people!  Classic distopian stuff. A script that's  got Rutger Hauer written all it!

From the things I've seen, I don't believe anyone truly thinks the death rate is 5%. If we had unlimited access to healthcare, then it'll be less than 1% (see Diamond Princess stats) however given the issues with healthcare access then it'll be more as we see in Italy. The WHO's 3.4% figure also indicates that but remember they cover the whole world. Their expected death rate for developed countries will be lower than underdeveloped countries, we have to seriously hope this doesn't reach the poorer countries in Africa and Asia. I saw something about the Philippines only having 300 ventilators in a country of 100 million people, whereas we have 5000 for 65 million people, and we're still completely up against it.

 

The immune race are going to become vitally important. They can also donate blood plasma to at risk people to help them build immunity (don't ask me how as I don't know).

Bayfox

Bayfox

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Wymsey said:

Can imagine sick leave being very high at the moment..

Especially in government employees who get 6 months pay. Sick note, or cut hours. Wonder what will happen there then.

Guest Markyblue

Guest Markyblue

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Lionator said:

From the things I've seen, I don't believe anyone truly thinks the death rate is 5%. If we had unlimited access to healthcare, then it'll be less than 1% (see Diamond Princess stats) however given the issues with healthcare access then it'll be more as we see in Italy. The WHO's 3.4% figure also indicates that but remember they cover the whole world. Their expected death rate for developed countries will be lower than underdeveloped countries, we have to seriously hope this doesn't reach the poorer countries in Africa and Asia. I saw something about the Philippines only having 300 ventilators in a country of 100 million people, whereas we have 5000 for 65 million people, and we're still completely up against it.

 

The immune race are going to become vitally important. They can also donate blood plasma to at risk people to help them build immunity (don't ask me how as I don't know).

Actually read something that said within a couple of weeks that 5000 ventilators will be 12000 , with thousands more on the way due to Vauxhall rolls Royce and other engineering giants.

CosbehFox

CosbehFox

Posted
Posted

Sadly Italy is expected to peak in a week’s time. I do personally think their high density living and all generations to one residency is not helping either. But ultimately they are at the overwhelmed stage which we must fight hard to minimise 

reynard

reynard

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, purpleronnie said:

How has germany managed to keep the death rate so low? 11,000 cases 27 deaths compared to our 2700 cases 104 deaths.

Not sure if this is true but I read somewhere that Germany has 28000 intensive care beds, 25000 ventilators, has ordered another 10000.

 

If correct puts our number of intensive care beds and number of ventilators into perspective hence the government's panic into buying more and getting any possible manufacutrer to manufacture ventilators.

reynard

reynard

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Sadly Italy is expected to peak in a week’s time. I do personally think their high density living and all generations to one residency is not helping either. But ultimately they are at the overwhelmed stage which we must fight hard to minimise 

A week might be optimistic looking at today's figures. The rest of Europe is watching and waiting though in the hope for some good news as most have followed their lockdown ideas.

Also worrying that Italy and the North in particular has a health system as good as ours. They do have a relatively old population though and you may be correct with the high density multi-generational living being a reason. Greece is similar in that and has a much weaker health system.

oxford blue

oxford blue

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, String fellow said:

Introduction of martial law would force everyone to take this seriously.  

A bit authoritarian - importan tto keep a sense of humour. Below are covers of Sound of Silence and Torn (Natalie Imbruglia) which are clever versions about  'the virus'.

 

DW
 

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