Corona Virus

[Vacamion]

1 minute ago, nnfox said:

Our government should be putting out material like this simple video.  

 

The comms strategy has been the worst part of the response. Dreadful.

 

I miss public information films.

 

Charlie Says, wash your bleddy hands.

[davieG]

8 hours ago, Super_horns said:

The people who know they might get very ill might well stay in isolation as it's a must for their health but you can bet most healthy 70s year olds won't be doing any such thing unless forced too..

 

They might do it for a week or so but not 12 - just when the weather is improving too.

Well I'm an at risk person and will be doing my best to stay at home, getting food is the problem but I will continue to take at least one local walk a day, there's not many people around me at the best of times so it's quite easy to take a brisk walk and avoid people and if I come across anyone I shall make a point of steering clear of them.

 

There's no point in avoiding this and then becoming totally unfit such that if you're unfortunate to get it you're less able to cope with it.

[Alf Bentley]

9 minutes ago, StanSP said:

No new cases in Wuhan or Hubei which is good! 

 

If their data is reliable, that's certainly good news. China and South Korea have shown it's possible to use firm measures to reduce and even stop the spread.....in the short-term.

 

If this progress is maintained, I suppose the big question will be to what extent China allows normal life to resume in Wuhan/Hubei - and then whether the virus starts to spread again through resumed social contact. 

[SpacedX]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

Unless we've all got it by then, no chance.

 

 

Now that the outbreak has grown into a pandemic - if enough people get Covid-19, and develop an immune response, essentially it creates its own herd immunity, but that’s only after causing millions of worldwide infections.

 

The SARS outbreak was brought to an end in July 2003 by good hygiene practices, such as frequent hand-washing and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months - but we simply don't know whether seasonality will play a part. Temperature had no effect on MERS which spread like wildfire across Saudi Arabia. The unanimous indication from virologists, immunologists and epidemiologists is that containing the current outbreak might prove to be more difficult than it was to stem SARS due to greater transmissibility and no one is sure about the extent/possibility of asymptomatic transmission. 

 

The most uncomfortable scenario is the possibility that Covid-19 keeps spreading at a high rate and becomes endemic, regularly and seasonally infecting humans, like the common cold. Whatever, H1N1 burnt out and soon became a distant memory in much of the developed world, but the negative and lasting effects, for the most susceptible people who are either medically or economically vulnerable in our society, the recovery process is much slower. 

 

Regarding a vaccine - even using novel synthetic RNA technology you are correct, that this is unlikely to be available before next winter. 

 

At the Royal Society’s international conference on ‘Lessons from SARS’ it was emphasised that wildlife trade is a major dual threat to human health and a primary cause of biodiversity decline in China and South East Asia. But these warnings were not heeded and so this has happened again. This needs to inspire collective action to stop illegal trade in wild animals, their continuing open sale in markets across the region which mix a vast array of species and of course the pathogens they carry. We cannot continue watching Russian roulette with zoonotic viruses and their known potential for causing global pandemics being repeatedly played in this way. 

[Lionator]

41 minutes ago, Line-X said:

I would venture that it will have burnt out by then. 

While this is very hopeful thinking, there is actually evidence emerging from Singapore that it does replicate into a less dangerous strain.

[SpacedX]

Just now, Lionator said:

While this is very hopeful thinking, there is actually evidence emerging from Singapore that it does replicate into a less dangerous strain.

Indeed. See response to MattP above. 

[The boy Linacre]

4 minutes ago, Line-X said:

Now that the outbreak has grown into a pandemic - if enough people get Covid-19, and develop an immune response, essentially it creates its own herd immunity, but that’s only after causing millions of worldwide infections.

 

The SARS outbreak was brought to an end in July 2003 by good hygiene practices, such as frequent hand-washing and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months - but we simply don't know whether seasonality will play a part. Temperature had no effect on MERS which spread like wildfire across Saudi Arabia. The unanimous indication from virologists, immunologists and epidemiologists is that containing the current outbreak might prove to be more difficult than it was to stem SARS due to greater transmissibility and no one is sure about the extent/possibility of asymptomatic transmission. 

 

The most uncomfortable scenario is the possibility that Covid-19 keeps spreading at a high rate and becomes endemic, regularly and seasonally infecting humans, like the common cold. Whatever, H1N1 burnt out and soon became a distant memory in much of the developed world, but the negative and lasting effects, for the most susceptible people who are either medically or economically vulnerable in our society, the recovery process is much slower. 

 

Regarding a vaccine - even using novel synthetic RNA technology you are correct, that this is unlikely to be available before next winter. 

 

At the Royal Society’s international conference on ‘Lessons from SARS’ it was emphasised that wildlife trade is a major dual threat to human health and a primary cause of biodiversity decline in China and South East Asia. But these warnings were not heeded and so this has happened again. This needs to inspire collective action to stop illegal trade in wild animals, their continuing open sale in markets across the region which mix a vast array of species and of course the pathogens they carry. We cannot continue watching Russian roulette with zoonotic viruses and their known potential for causing global pandemics being repeatedly played in this way. 

Got to say if it ever dies down and we recover to norm, there will be a post mortem and fingers will be pointed at China, DT has already started.  It also begs the question that now we have done these lockdowns once, if the scenario is repeated again surely the moment the non host countries are aware of what might happen they stop ALL exits from the host country with immediate effect.  I suspect that would have considerably reduced or stopped what is going on in Italy for example, as their original hosts were there before they knew it was in their country and information would lead us to believe it was spreading quickly as a result without any control or awareness of its initial presence.

Of course the health and welfare of all is paramount, but as a by product this is going to bring considerable economic damage and affect us all financially considerably and for a decent amount of time, years rather than months.  Businesses will go bust, large percentages of workers will lose jobs.  Just very sad for all on so many fronts.

I believe even Xi Jinping might now think legislation around the wild animal food markets need to come to a stop and immediately and never return.  At least Europe only used horse meat!!

[String fellow]

There are three ways to break links in the chain of transmission. One is the to get it and develop antibodies and survive, the second is to get it and die, and the third is to completely self-isolate to avoid getting it. None of these choices is very palatable, but for older people like me, the third one is the least bad. It feels like my elderly mother and I are at the start of a long period of self-imposed house-arrest, as our only realistic option. It's an immensely depressing and almost surreal situation to be in.   

Edited 19 March 2020 by String fellow

[Lionator]

10 minutes ago, String fellow said:

There are three ways to break links in the chain of transmission. One is the to get it and develop antibodies and survive, the second is to get it and die, and the third is to completely self-isolate to avoid getting it. None of these choices is very palatable, but for older people like me, the third one is the least bad. It feels like my elderly mother and I are at the start of a long period of self-imposed house-arrest, as our only realistic option. It's an immensely depressing and almost surreal situation to be in.   

It is a rubbish situation. However, we're learning more about this on a daily basis and I doubt at any point in history has communication between scientists around the world been so driven and focused. While an initial 2-3 months of isolation for yourself might be inevitable, we're going to be in a completely different position 2-3 months down the line. 

[Carl the Llama]

[Finnaldo]

2 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

I’m not sure why we’re so hung up on Coronavirus’ effect on the NHS, it’ll be brought to it’s knees by the demand for porn addiction rehabilitation treatments after 2 months of self-isolation.

[Super_horns]

36 minutes ago, davieG said:

Well I'm an at risk person and will be doing my best to stay at home, getting food is the problem but I will continue to take at least one local walk a day, there's not many people around me at the best of times so it's quite easy to take a brisk walk and avoid people and if I come across anyone I shall make a point of steering clear of them.

 

There's no point in avoiding this and then becoming totally unfit such that if you're unfortunate to get it you're less able to cope with it.

Yes that is what I was advised too.

 

You guys can play the 2015/6 season on a loop!!

 

Even after 12 weeks it probably won't get boring..

[BKLFox]

40 minutes ago, nnfox said:

Our government should be putting out material like this simple video.  

 

The comms strategy has been the worst part of the response. Dreadful.

But when our Government kept telling us to Wash Our Hands for 20seconds they were slated!
 

There is material like this all over, for instance every break on Sky Sports they repeat the message same with BBC news & such like just because Boris isn't tweeting doesn't mean the message isn't out there. Out of interst is there anything on the video you weren't aware of anyway?

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Unless a vaccination is created (unlikely by then) pretty much the whole scientific community thinks the worst will come in the winter.

Damn my optimism 

[davieG]

26 minutes ago, The boy Linacre said:

Got to say if it ever dies down and we recover to norm, there will be a post mortem and fingers will be pointed at China, DT has already started.  It also begs the question that now we have done these lockdowns once, if the scenario is repeated again surely the moment the non host countries are aware of what might happen they stop ALL exits from the host country with immediate effect.  I suspect that would have considerably reduced or stopped what is going on in Italy for example, as their original hosts were there before they knew it was in their country and information would lead us to believe it was spreading quickly as a result without any control or awareness of its initial presence.

Of course the health and welfare of all is paramount, but as a by product this is going to bring considerable economic damage and affect us all financially considerably and for a decent amount of time, years rather than months.  Businesses will go bust, large percentages of workers will lose jobs.  Just very sad for all on so many fronts.

I believe even Xi Jinping might now think legislation around the wild animal food markets need to come to a stop and immediately and never return.  At least Europe only used horse meat!!

This is why I was amazed that we continued to let people in from Italy for instance, where the virus was already rife without any action and it's not as if the passengers were to blame as many were equally surprised that they were just nodded through.

[rachhere]

34 minutes ago, The boy Linacre said:

Got to say if it ever dies down and we recover to norm, there will be a post mortem and fingers will be pointed at China, DT has already started.  It also begs the question that now we have done these lockdowns once, if the scenario is repeated again surely the moment the non host countries are aware of what might happen they stop ALL exits from the host country with immediate effect.  I suspect that would have considerably reduced or stopped what is going on in Italy for example, as their original hosts were there before they knew it was in their country and information would lead us to believe it was spreading quickly as a result without any control or awareness of its initial presence.

Of course the health and welfare of all is paramount, but as a by product this is going to bring considerable economic damage and affect us all financially considerably and for a decent amount of time, years rather than months.  Businesses will go bust, large percentages of workers will lose jobs.  Just very sad for all on so many fronts.

I believe even Xi Jinping might now think legislation around the wild animal food markets need to come to a stop and immediately and never return.  At least Europe only used horse meat!!

They were talking about this and saying that because there were so many routes, due to indirect flights, it would have made it impossible. Although I guess if there had been an immediate global response then that approach would have been effective. 

[st albans fox]

We have been told (off the record of course) that tomorrow is the last day our west end office will be open for at least two weeks. 
 

This info is from our landlord who owns a big chunk of the west end so it is reliable.  I have been told other stories down here about what’s going on in many London hospitals but I’m not sharing those as would be unsubstantiated rumour (though it isn’t) 

[nnfox]

2 minutes ago, BKLFox said:

But when our Government kept telling us to Wash Our Hands for 20seconds they were slated!
 

There is material like this all over, for instance every break on Sky Sports they repeat the message same with BBC news & such like just because Boris isn't tweeting doesn't mean the message isn't out there. Out of interst is there anything on the video you weren't aware of anyway?

It isn't the message, it's the delivery. 

 

I'll confess to not watching Sky Sports (I didn't think there'd be anything on).  The stuff on the BBC seems to be a bunch of journalists and experts in suits talking about it.  I get it, and I would think everyone participating in this thread gets it too.  And while there was nothing on the video that I wasn't aware of, I look around and think to myself that there are still plenty of people who aren't fully aware.

 

People in suits. Boris. Scientists.  They can say it all until they're blue in the face but there is a large proportion of the population who are instantly switched off by this and actively avoid watching that type of material.

 

I personally think that short, simple, informative videos like this would be a better way of engaging more of the public.  Our government seems a bit behind the times when it comes to getting the message out to most people.

 

[Deeg67]

Progress on treatment will almost certainly outpace progress on a vaccine.  There are at least three existing drugs which have already been clinically tested on humans for use against other diseases (malaria or influenza, primarily) that have shown positive results with COVID-19.  The testing process will be shorter with these and if they can be demonstrably proven effective and mass produced, could have a major impact on reducing the mortality rate even for vulnerable people.  That's why it's so critical to buy time now and keep the health care system from being overwhelmed and collapsing as it did in Italy.

[RonnieTodger]

Facebook is an absolute cesspit  

[SpacedX]

8 minutes ago, String fellow said:

There are three ways to break links in the chain of transmission. One is the to get it and develop antibodies and survive, the second is to get and die, and the third is to completely self-isolate to avoid getting it. None of these choices is very palatable, but for older people like me, the third one is the least bad. It feels like my elderly mother and I are at the start of a long period of self-imposed house-arrest, as our only realistic option. It's an immensely depressing and almost surreal situation to be in.   

The problem with herd immunity, in order for it to work, something like 60% of the population need to be infected which would have equated of to around 40 million people. Depending on the mortality rate, which is dependent upon access to medical care and other factors but is estimated to be 1 percent globally, the death rate en route to improved immunity strategy could have ranged from 300,000 to more than a million. Worse still, researchers don’t even yet know if people become immune to the novel coronavirus after catching it. Early on in an infection, it’s also possible that a person could test negative even if they have the virus. Serological testing, which identifies antibodies in a patient’s blood to see if they’ve been exposed to the virus, would monitor how immunity is generated so as to understand the pathogen’s transmission patterns. With SARS, there was no transmission during incubation or during the early symptomatic phase, and so control was relatively easy once the transmission dynamics had been established. The virus is constantly growing and changing, which currently makes total containment impossible and the prospect of antigenic drift a very real one.

 

The nature of this particular virus also raises the risk of a resurgence. The coronavirus is harder to detect and lingers longer than the one that caused SARS. Following social isolation, second wave into the winter is a very real prospect. 

 

Despite my earlier panglossian post that this could burn out over the summer, MattP is likely right...the global pandemic will not be contained until we have a vaccine, or most of the population is infected.

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, nnfox said:

It isn't the message, it's the delivery. 

 

I'll confess to not watching Sky Sports (I didn't think there'd be anything on).  The stuff on the BBC seems to be a bunch of journalists and experts in suits talking about it.  I get it, and I would think everyone participating in this thread gets it too.  And while there was nothing on the video that I wasn't aware of, I look around and think to myself that there are still plenty of people who aren't fully aware.

 

People in suits. Boris. Scientists.  They can say it all until they're blue in the face but there is a large proportion of the population who are instantly switched off by this and actively avoid watching that type of material.

 

I personally think that short, simple, informative videos like this would be a better way of engaging more of the public.  Our government seems a bit behind the times when it comes to getting the message out to most people.

 

And if that isn't any indication as to why the human race is doomed I don't know what is. It's totally correct, though.

[Kopfkino]

The first RCT of Lopinavir/Ritonavir showed no real benefit. Only one trial mind. Think hopes on that one were lower anyway as there wasn't much in vitro evidence

[davieG]

7 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

And if that isn't any indication as to why the human race is doomed I don't know what is. It's totally correct, though.

Probably something to do with this

 

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

47 minutes ago, String fellow said:

There are three ways to break links in the chain of transmission. One is the to get it and develop antibodies and survive, the second is to get it and die, and the third is to completely self-isolate to avoid getting it. None of these choices is very palatable, but for older people like me, the third one is the least bad. It feels like my elderly mother and I are at the start of a long period of self-imposed house-arrest, as our only realistic option. It's an immensely depressing and almost surreal situation to be in.   

Get yourself some hobbies for isolation. Puzzles, crossword books, wordsearchs, tv show binges, video games, board games, anything that will pass the time. It's a shit situation but you can't change it, just make the best of it.

 

All the best mate