2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Ric Flair]

It's an interesting dilemma, I think many want Chelsea to win tonight if it then transpires that Man Utd win tomorrow because then a draw next week pretty much secures CL for us both. However I'm more than happy for Chelsea to fail to win tonight as has been discussed, it gives us another team to be able to secure CL instead of/before.

[cruzFOX]

I predict an arsenal masterclass today!

this season they either turn up or they don’t but with arteta under pressure again and certainly arsenal players back in form again they will suprise and give Chelski one hell of a game. Something they do not want considering they want to be all fit and rested for the weekend. Pressure is on them against their London rivals. The germans might start firing blanks again as we’ve seen before. I will be watching.

 

as for Thursday’s game I prefer a Man U win for the reason already stated by some of you but I reckon it will be a tightly contested 1-1 or 0-0 draw.

[enmac]

Chelsea have only won 2 of their last 5 home games. 1 point there and if Man U beat Liverpool tomorrow, we are certain to finish top 4 because our gd is so much better than WH and Everton. 

[Sublime_Coatsworth]

13 minutes ago, norwichfox said:

Has anyone calculated what we and our challengers need to do to secure a top four place?

about Tree Fiddy

[KingsX]

Hard to believe I was ready to promise my firstborn for a United defeat yesterday … and I’m ready to promise my second for a United victory tomorrow.

 

Funny old game and all that.

 

[v6rat]

1 hour ago, norwichfox said:

Has anyone calculated what we and our challengers need to do to secure a top four place?

Chelsea max 73 points

West Ham max 67 points

Liverpool max 69 points.

Everton max 67 points

 

Leicester need 4 more (70 points max and 4th place) to guarantee CL If the teams above drop points, then we need less

Edited 12 May 2021 by v6rat

[Spudulike]

You can almost be sure that one of either West Ham, Merseyside Redsox or Everton will get maximum points. Its going to be a very nervy final match and we're not very good at home. 

[Lichfieldfox.]

50 minutes ago, Spudulike said:

You can almost be sure that one of either West Ham, Merseyside Redsox or Everton will get maximum points. Its going to be a very nervy final match and we're not very good at home. 

We just need to focus on ourselves as in our hands. We can end up with 66 (2L), 67 (1D, 1L), 68 (2D), 69 (1W, 1L), 70 (1W, 1D) oŕ 72 (2W). More chance of Chelsea slipping up. Spurs will be wearing flip flops for final game.

[psychonaut]

1 hour ago, Spudulike said:

You can almost be sure that one of either West Ham, Merseyside Redsox or Everton will get maximum points. Its going to be a very nervy final match and we're not very good at home. 

If West Ham or Everton get max points, as long as we draw one game out of our final two it wont matter as they've both got dogsh1t goal difference.

[FOXSE]

Not to encourage gambling, but if you put £150 on Leicester to finish outside the top 4, and we do, it will pretty much cover the cost of next years season ticket....

[HighPeakFox]

1 hour ago, Spudulike said:

You can almost be sure that one of either West Ham, Merseyside Redsox or Everton will get maximum points.

Sorry to be that guy, but this is statistically unlikely. 

Edited 12 May 2021 by HighPeakFox

[Bats8711]

2 hours ago, v6rat said:

Chelsea max 73 points

West Ham max 67 points

Liverpool max 69 points.

Everton max 67 points

 

Leicester need 4 more to guarantee CL If the teams above drop points, then we need less

Yep - you guys don't seem to utilize it in the UK but a good way to think about it is the Magic Number, which would be the cumulative amount of points we need to gain OR chasers need to drop to clinch.  There would be a M# for each team that can catch us.

 

- Liverpool is 4 points

- West Ham is technically 2 points, but effectively 1 due to GD (they'd have to make up an additional 7 goals beyond what the results needed for them to catch us dictate - so they'd need their wins and our defeats to each be by an average of over 2 goals.  Not impossible but even I'd say that's pretty unlikely)

- Everton same thing - technically 2, but effectively 1 due to even worse GD

- Chelsea is more complicated because we play them ("6 pointer"). But based on what I can tell it's 8.  Seems a lot, but if we beat them that's 6 right there (we gain +3, they drop -3)

 

We need to finish ahead of three of these teams.  WH + EVE are first to target.  We're one result away from clinching above them both.  People are taking it for granted that Liverpool is the 3rd team. The thing is, if Chelsea lose or draw today, our M# with them goes down to 5-6.  Normally that would be 2 results, but because we play them it could be one.  They become just as likely to finish below us as Liverpool does.  More outs = better.  Also I'm not greedy but the thought of Chelsea losing CL final, losing FA cup final + finishing 5th is quite delicious.

[Duncan_K]

9 minutes ago, Bats8711 said:

Also I'm not greedy but the thought of Chelsea losing CL final, losing FA cup final + finishing 5th is quite delicious.

It is, but i've already made the deal with the devil that if they give us the FA cup and Champions League place then they are allowed to win the CL final. 

[Foxaholic ME]

2 hours ago, Spudulike said:

You can almost be sure that one of either West Ham, Merseyside Redsox or Everton will get maximum points. Its going to be a very nervy final match and we're not very good at home. 

Its amazing that our home record is ignored by Rogers  anything like our away record and we would be challenging for the title.There must be at least half the league who we have done worse at home against than away

[Motty]

40 minutes ago, Foxaholic ME said:

Its amazing that our home record is ignored by Rogers  anything like our away record and we would be challenging for the title.There must be at least half the league who we have done worse at home against than away

2	4	38	17	+21	38
2	West Ham Utd	18	9	4	5	29	22	+7	31
3	Tottenham	17	9	3	5	32	18	+14	30
4	Chelsea	17	8	6	3	29	16	+13	30
5	Manchester Utd	17	9	3	5	35	23	+12	30
6	Liverpool	18	9	3	6	27	20	+7	30
7	Leicester City	18	9	1	8	32	26	+6	28
8	Leeds Utd	18	7	5	6	25	20	+5	26
9	Arsenal	18	7	4	7	22	21	+1	25
10	Wolverhampton	18	7	4	7	20	23	-3	25
11	Southampton	17	7	3	7	25	22	+3	24
12	Aston Villa	17	6	3	8	27	26	+1	21
13	Newcastle Utd	17	5	5	7	22	29	-7	20
14	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	16	27	-11	20
15	Everton	17	5	4	8	23	27	-4	19
16	Burnley	17	4	6	7	14	20	-6	18
17	Brighton	17	3	8	6	18	19	-1	17
18	West Brom	17	3	6	8	13	34	-21	15
19	Sheffield Utd	18	4	1	13	11	27	-16	13
20	Fulham	18	2	4	12	9	26	-17	10

[Motty]

Everton away at man city last game and home fans allowed 

tough ask for them

[tom27111]

It's quite simple. 

 

We beat Chelsea twice within the next week and it's arguably our greatest ever season.

[Motty]

If Chelsea fail to win today then 2 wins against them secures champions league and our first FA Cup.

 

would think that would tick Brendans to do list

 

[foxes_rule1978]

15 minutes ago, Motty said:

Everton away at man city last game and home fans allowed 

tough ask for them

Man City will be going for that, win the game in front of a crowd and lift the title 

[Fox 4 Life]

31 minutes ago, tom27111 said:

It's quite simple. 

 

We beat Chelsea twice within the next week and it's arguably our greatest ever season.

You are comparing an fa cup win to the Premier league?

[FOXSE]

The maths don't really change if Chelsea get a late equaliser for the top 4 race... so getting closer!

[The whole world smiles]

33 minutes ago, tom27111 said:

It's quite simple. 

 

We beat Chelsea twice within the next week and it's arguably our greatest ever season.

Thats gonna have to be some argument mate. 

[tom27111]

1 minute ago, Fox 4 Life said:

You are comparing an fa cup win to the Premier league?

Top 4 and the FA Cup. For me, that's close.

 

I don't know what others think, but it would be an incredible achievement. 

 

[UpTheLeagueFox]

36 minutes ago, tom27111 said:

We beat Chelsea twice within the next week and it's arguably our greatest ever season.

2015/16 is our greatest ever season.

FA Cup and Top 4 would probably be second greatest but some way behind the invincibles.

[Raw Dykes]

2 minutes ago, tom27111 said:

Top 4 and the FA Cup. For me, that's close.

 

I don't know what others think, but it would be an incredible achievement.

Incredible achievement, yes, but wouldn't come close to the 5000-1 title win.