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simFox

Corona Virus

By simFox, in General Chat

Mark
Message added by Mark

No political discussion in this topic. That is complaining about a country, a politician, a party and/or its voters, etc

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Lionator

Lionator

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, brucey said:

Here’s the latest projections from the official government experts from Imperial, as of today.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/covid-19-weekly-forecasts/week-07-04-2020/

 

Or is this report too pessimistic to post here?

There's nothing in that to be particularly pessimistic about in comparison to what we already know. 

 

What it does tell us is that the UK is terrible at picking up true cases, only identifying 3.2% of all cases.

 

The R0 in Algeria of nearly 7 is absolutely insane and shows us just how contagious this is.

 

The data was taken from 22nd-29th March so we're hopefully in a better position a week on. 

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worthosoriginals

worthosoriginals

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Tinman said:

Israel health minister, who claims coronavirus is ‘divine punishment’ for homosexuality, tests positive for COVID-19

Did his man made God tell him this information? Or did the health minister make it up? His man made God is either incompetent or a joker. Or just maybe he doesn't exist. 

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Lionator

Lionator

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

If Downing Street are being honest with us then the fact that boris hasn’t needed mechanical breathing done for him within the first 24 hours in ICU is a huge positive and vastly increases the likelihood of him coming through this .....

If what Downing Street have said is 100% true then he'd fall into the severe end of the 'severe' category rather than 'critical'. If he remains stable overnight then you may hear something tomorrow about movement back onto the normal ward. Let's hope anyway. 

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brucey

brucey

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Lionator said:

http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-europe-italy-spain-have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its

 

This on the otherhand is terrifying. UK models seem to show that we'll have enough beds. This clearly doesn't and suggests we'll also be 3000 deaths a day by next week. 

 

Comfortably worse than anywhere else in the world.

I saw that in graph form earlier (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom) and thought it looked a bit too dodgy to post. Looking at the strange artificial bump in the death chart where the actual and predicted lines meet, and their massive uncertainty levels, this is far too pessimistic even for me. Think the imperial model is more accurate as would mean we continue to track Italy at 800 deaths or so per day next week, as we have done so far.

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Lionator

Lionator

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, brucey said:

I saw that in graph form earlier (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom) and thought it looked a bit too dodgy to post. Looking at the strange artificial bump in the death chart where the actual and predicted lines meet, and their massive uncertainty levels, this is far too pessimistic even for me. Think the imperial model is more accurate as would mean we continue to track Italy at 800 deaths or so per day next week, as we have done so far.

Yeah it doesn't seem to make much sense. Our peak according to this study would require us to need 102,000 beds, Germany, France and other countries are pretty much 5 or 10 times lower yet we've got the very similar social distancing rules.  I wonder if their bed/ICU availability numbers are a bit out too. Surely we'd be in a complete Wuhan style lockdown if other modellers thought we'd be this much worse than other badly effected European countries.

 

Our overall deaths for today are actually below their lower confidence interval estimate (6159 v 6283) too which would mean they're already significantly incorrect (UNLESS we're actually hiding the true numbers).

Edited by Lionator
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st albans fox

st albans fox

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Lionator said:

http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-europe-italy-spain-have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its

 

This on the otherhand is terrifying. UK models seem to show that we'll have enough beds. This clearly doesn't and suggests we'll also be 3000 deaths a day by next week. 

 

Comfortably worse than anywhere else in the world.

Can’t see that these numbers stack up ............

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davieG

davieG

Posted
Posted

 

Experts are warning against over-interpreting daily figures of people dying with Covid-19, since they often reflect reporting delays.

Spikes or dips may in part reflect bottlenecks in the reporting system, rather than real changes in the trend.

On Monday, 439 coronavirus deaths were recorded in the UK - down from 621 on Sunday and 708 on Saturday.

Many hospitals will not report deaths that happened over the weekend until the middle of the following week.

Over the weekend, NHS England released new figures broken down by the actual date of death.

And these reveal that between 11 March and 1 April there were about 300 more deaths than previously thought during that period.

Prof Jim Naismith, at the University of Oxford, said because of "understandable" delays in reporting by NHS trusts, the daily figures included deaths that may have happened up to two weeks ago.

 

More deaths than daily figures suggest in England

image.png.fbba4c222b55286e9e9b4bb3d9ea5438.png

 

Separate figures, published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also suggest the number of people dying with coronavirus is higher than the daily totals indicate.

The ONS examined registrations and found deaths in the community not included in the daily hospital deaths figures.

In the week to 27 March, for the 501 deaths recorded in hospitals the ONS also found 38 deaths linked to coronavirus in the community.

Nevertheless, there are some early promising signs the virus's spread is slowing, as new confirmed cases fell from 4,450 to 3,802 between Friday and Monday.

The rate of increase in cases has halved in the past week.

And this should feed through into a slowing in critical-care admissions and eventually deaths.

But reporting delays mean once we reach the peak, we may not know about it for several days.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52167016

 

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Parafox

Parafox

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Lionator said:

http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-europe-italy-spain-have-passed-peak-their-epidemics-uk-early-its

 

This on the otherhand is terrifying. UK models seem to show that we'll have enough beds. This clearly doesn't and suggests we'll also be 3000 deaths a day by next week. 

 

Comfortably worse than anywhere else in the world.

I'd be amazed if that death figure was accurate. From my limited knowledge it seems the curve will flatten as social distancing and isolation will become effective and death rates happening now are those that were admitted before the lockdown, in most cases. Two weeks in hospital from the first signs of Covid seems to be the norm before a person succumbs, again I say this only from what I've seen, read and experienced. Lockdown started 15 days ago so hopefully admission rates and death rates will flatten soon as we have seen elsewhere in Europe. We seem to be 14 days behind Spain and Italy, where things are showing reduced death rates and admissions.

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brucey

brucey

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Yeah it doesn't seem to make much sense. Our peak according to this study would require us to need 102,000 beds, Germany, France and other countries are pretty much 5 or 10 times lower yet we've got the very similar social distancing rules.  I wonder if their bed/ICU availability numbers are a bit out too. Surely we'd be in a complete Wuhan style lockdown if other modellers thought we'd be this much worse than other badly effected European countries.

 

Our overall deaths for today are actually below their lower confidence interval estimate (6159 v 6283) too which would mean they're already significantly incorrect (UNLESS we're actually hiding the true numbers).

Our numbers probably are significantly incorrect, due to a combination of reporting delay and undiagnosed deaths in the community. But the exact same applies to most countries including Spain and Italy. It’s more informative to compare the trends between countries using similar testing criteria and reporting methods, than trying to compare a guesstimate of a ‘true number’. If this group of modellers are getting their high estimates from guessing at the ‘true number’, it’s not very helpful to then plot the ‘actual confirmed cases’ on the same graph.

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Jattdogg

Jattdogg

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Tinman said:

Israel health minister, who claims coronavirus is ‘divine punishment’ for homosexuality, tests positive for COVID-19

Never nice to get it but hope he recovers and explains how he to was clearly involved in so called immoral homosexuality.

3 hours ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

Man, the mans passion for wanting people to wake up struck me i almost wanted to cry at his pain. Glad this man gives a fool about his fellow mans well being  (other than the shoot in the ass part lol)

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Nod.E

Nod.E

Posted
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Posted

Raab: Johnson will survive because he's a fighter.

 

So by definition, those that die are quitters?

 

Pet peeve number 348 of mine, saying meaningless sh*te when well wishing.

 

Almost as bad as 'our prayers are with him and his family'.

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UpTheLeagueFox

UpTheLeagueFox

Posted
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Posted
1 hour ago, Nod.E said:

Raab: Johnson will survive because he's a fighter.

So by definition, those that die are quitters?

Pet peeve number 348 of mine, saying meaningless sh*te when well wishing.

Almost as bad as 'our prayers are with him and his family'.

He was trying to be positive.

He wasn't suggesting those who die are quitters.

We all offer up fairly meaningless platitudes from time to time.

You're a ray of sunshine aren't you lol

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BlueSi13

BlueSi13

Posted
Posted
Just now, Sir Shep said:

Were we meant to be clapping for Boris? Must have missed that!

I just happened to see a few FBPE's raging about it on Twitter this morning....as I say I heard a few around my way but I don't think it was ever really a thing.

 

I happily voted for him but I had no intentions of clapping as it all just feels a bit weird to me personally.

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