Corona Virus

[yorkie1999]

Just now, ajthefox said:

It's going to keep climbing.

 

We have to remember the number of infections/deaths is likely going to keep rising rapidly for at least another week or so (if not longer) until the impact of quarantine measures starts to show.

Shame the powers that be didn’t implement a lockdown a few weeks ago because how I see it is we’re  going to end up with a broken economy anyway, if that was the reason for delaying it.

[st albans fox]

8 minutes ago, ajthefox said:

It's going to keep climbing.

 

We have to remember the number of infections/deaths is likely going to keep rising rapidly for at least another week or so (if not longer) until the impact of quarantine measures starts to show.

Another week ?  it’s only a week since they shut the pubs .......  I think you have nearly four weeks before you might begin to see the daily rate begin to fall - Italy saw their 1000 death recorded on day 20 and the following day they saw 251 deaths.  We remain approx two weeks behind them ...I suppose it’s not hard to see where the 20k plus estimates are coming from ................

[WigstonWanderer]

As bad as this period is for some people I have a feeling that this will turn out to be the easy bit. I dread what comes after. Ruined economies, recession or worse, bankrupt governments around the world, mass unemployment and poverty. I just hope that law and order, and the banking system survive.

[Nalis]

1 minute ago, Ross-Kemp said:

260 is another big increase. Poor souls 

 

Unfortunately it’s only going to increase over the next 2 weeks !

Yep, we've effectively been on 'lockdown' since Monday so the key will be seeing the figures in the first full week of April and the (hopeful) decline in deaths.

 

Hard to read into the total case figures without mass testing. 

[urban.spaceman]

Informative and optimistic vlog series from a junior doctor:

 

 

Makes an interesting point towards the end - he says the NHS are the LAST line of defence; the general public is actually the front line in the fight against the virus - we're the people who are making the biggest difference by just staying at home, which sounds simple, but in reality, a lot of people have had to sacrifice a hell of a lot just to safe other people's lives. 

 

Things are difficult, and they will worse, but it will eventually get better. 

 

Stay strong. Stay safe. Stay home.

[Izzy]

10 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

The majority of the 260 people who have succumbed to the disease over the past 24 hours would likely have caught it around the beginning of the month and during the first week ........ when Cheltenham was on ...... think about the amount of cross infection that still has to work through the system before we reach the peak of the fatalities on this cycle ......

I know it’s easy to be wise after the event but in hindsight, it was crazy to go ahead with Cheltenham when everything else was being cancelled 

[Leeds Fox]

13 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Excellent article. Society as a whole is making a huge sacrifice both socially and economically to tame this monster. Anyone flouting the new rules of distancing, isolation & quarantine is undermining these efforts, dragging out the crisis, putting many more lives at risk, and ensuring that the sacrifice is in vain. Ultimately it needs to be called out and made as socially unacceptable as other life threatening crimes.

It’s astonishing that people don’t realise that if they’re self-isolating as a family, if one person goes to work, the whole family has essentially been there. Work could be replaced by the supermarket, butchers, dog walk (opening gates), pretty much anything you do. 
 

Also (and this isn’t meant as a slight on anyone), people who seem to be put in a position of power, such as Supermarket workers being put on security duties. One told me and my partner we had to be 2m apart. I explained that we were self-isolating as part of a household therefore we didn’t, to be told ‘they are the rules’ and was looked at as if I was stupid. 

I then asked if I could sanitise my hands, after I’d sanitised my trolley handle. As I’d handled it before it was sanitised, to be told the trolley handle was now clean so I needn’t worry. 

 

There’s numerous other instances where common sense seems to have gone out of the window to adhere to the rules. Too much to go into without giving myself a headache trying to understand some people’s logic. 

[The Quick Brown Fox]

4 hours ago, Bayfox said:

I guess if you are used to being able to get out and have space, plus have kids with any problems, it wasn't meant at a sweeping statement, I guess we are lucky, I get on very well with my wife and my kids have their own rooms to go to, a garden and a park across the road, privately managed and paid for by the residents so it's not been closed.

 

The kids are definitely finding it harder than me, my lad especially as he's not seen or spoke to his mates in over a week now, my daughter has a phone and most her mates can what's app face call etc, but they are struggling with having to work from home, I've been ok so far, but as I say I like a social pint, 3 or 4 times a week, just for the walk, and to have a chat, love our locals, purely as the crowd in both are friendly and you can always find someone to chat too.

 

1 week down, let's see how the next 2 go.

 

Hope you find a way to manage.

Not even a week yet! I'm lucky I still get to work but my wife's relationship with the kids is getting strained already, not nice to see. 

This lockdown will be here for alot longer that 2 more weeks, and I think restrictions will get tighter too.

[l444ry]

3 minutes ago, Izzy said:

I know it’s easy to be wise after the event but in hindsight, it was crazy to go ahead with Cheltenham when everything else was being cancelled 

…..and allowing 3000 Madrid to travel unchecked to Anfield for a Champions League game, with a percentage risking infecting people in the bars and streets of Liverpool. And even more incredible was that Spain were holding their La Liga games behind closed doors at the time. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

5 minutes ago, l444ry said:

…..and allowing 3000 Madrid to travel unchecked to Anfield for a Champions League game, with a percentage risking infecting people in the bars and streets of Liverpool. And even more incredible was that Spain were holding their La Liga games behind closed doors at the time. 

That was ridiculous. Some of the decisions throughout this have been rather strange and stupid.

 

I didn't think we'd see a death total over 300 in a day, but I think I'm gonna be wrong about that unfortunately.

[TheUltimateWinner]

If the reports are true, I think the problem was we changed our strategy pretty far into the one we originally decided on. As in, we pushed ahead with herd immunity, then realised, oh shit that isn't going to work and now unfortunately we're experiencing more deaths than we would've done if we tried suppressing it early on.

[Paninistickers]

39 minutes ago, Ross-Kemp said:

260 is another big increase. Poor souls 

 

Unfortunately it’s only going to increase over the next 2 weeks !

I say this only so we can get some context...

 

Around 460 die every single day of heart disease. Every day. Every year.

[st albans fox]

8 minutes ago, TheUltimateWinner said:

If the reports are true, I think the problem was we changed our strategy pretty far into the one we originally decided on. As in, we pushed ahead with herd immunity, then realised, oh shit that isn't going to work and now unfortunately we're experiencing more deaths than we would've done if we tried suppressing it early on.

We did ?

 

look back at the bucket illustration...... it’s a bit crude I grant you .........

 

I think that they were remiss in London but around the rest of the country I’m not convinced their timing was that wrong ........

[String fellow]

If our news bulletins earlier in March had shown the reality of this beast, rather than showing fairly bland views of empty streets in Milan, maybe the UK as whole would have taken the threat far more seriously. As regards the Cheltenham Festival, looking through the thread on FT, a prediction was made on the first page that it wouldn't go ahead, but thereafter, everyone just focused on the racing itself.  

[January47]

On 26/03/2020 at 19:31, st albans fox said:

You miss understand me 

 

two days ago was an increase of 80/90

 

yesterday was 43 but today is 115

 

so yesterday and today are average 80 which is the rate recorded two days ago. So I’m pointing out that across the three days, the daily death rate is around 80 ......

 

On 26/03/2020 at 19:42, yorkie1999 said:

Does it matter, you're both splitting hairs over people dying ffs.

Apologies if it seemed callous. It wasn’t to be but it’s important that we have right figures, at least for the people making the decisions rather than us on some message board.

One ifact from the last two days was nearly everybody who died was in a vulnerable group. Normally with flu they would have had a jab and been immune so wonder if this virus is of similar strength to normal flu but just that we can’t vaccinate the vulnerable. It may also be more contagious.

 

Reading about the normal flu I didn’t appreciate how dangerous it is every year with reports of 17000 people dying per year in Uk and this reckoned to be an underestimate as deaths from secondary complications are not included in that figure.

[st albans fox]

3 minutes ago, January47 said:

 

Apologies if it seemed callous. It wasn’t to be but it’s important that we have right figures, at least for the people making the decisions rather than us on some message board.

One ifact from the last two days was nearly everybody who died was in a vulnerable group. Normally with flu they would have had a jab and been immune so wonder if this virus is of similar strength to normal flu but just that we can’t vaccinate the vulnerable. It may also be more contagious.

 

Reading about the normal flu I didn’t appreciate how dangerous it is every year with reports of 17000 people dying per year in Uk and this reckoned to be an underestimate as deaths from secondary complications are not included in that figure.

Partly true I guess .......but until this is all over we won’t know what lasting damage COVID-19 has inflicted on millions of pairs of lungs around the world ...... time for my daily temperature rise to begin! 

[TheUltimateWinner]

12 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

We did ?

 

look back at the bucket illustration...... it’s a bit crude I grant you .........

 

I think that they were remiss in London but around the rest of the country I’m not convinced their timing was that wrong ........

To be honest none of us will know what the right course of action was until it’s all over! We place our faith in the scientists and government because it’s all we can do. On the face of it though, it does seem their actions have been correct, I just hope they’ve got the timings right.

[reynard]

45 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Yep, we've effectively been on 'lockdown' since Monday so the key will be seeing the figures in the first full week of April and the (hopeful) decline in deaths.

 

Hard to read into the total case figures without mass testing. 

I can't see there being a cat in hells chance of the death rate declining in the first full week of April though it would be great  news if so. The death rate is doubling every 2.5 days in the UK. So we will have 1500 dead when the figures are released in 48 hours time. We haven't tested enough as you say to know how many are infected but by the end of the first week of April it is hard to see the numbers dropping especially as we actually start to get our act together and test more people.

The lockdowns  in Italy and Spain, both stricter than in the UK, have not shown a significant levelling off if at all and our trajectory is just as bad. I have a colleague in Italy and they are very worried. They had hoped to see a levelling off around 26th-30th of this month, so still time. However, it is starting to look like the South could be heading the same way as the North and apart from lockdowns there is no plan B to counteract the virus. Same as everwhere else.

[Mike Oxlong]

5 hours ago, Izzy said:

I'd say it's harder (well for me anyway)

 

The thought of having four of us cramped up together in a small 3 bed terrace for months on end is a nightmare - especially with a fvcked up OCD teenage daughter.

 

I'd love a bit of 'me' time in isolation rather than tripping over moody family members every other minute.

Take breakfast wearing just a vest and socks

 

That clears the house for a couple of hours as they all seem to want to go on a long walk

[Nalis]

7 minutes ago, reynard said:

I can't see there being a cat in hells chance of the death rate declining in the first full week of April though it would be great  news if so. The death rate is doubling every 2.5 days in the UK. So we will have 1500 dead when the figures are released in 48 hours time. We haven't tested enough as you say to know how many are infected but by the end of the first week of April it is hard to see the numbers dropping especially as we actually start to get our act together and test more people.

The lockdowns  in Italy and Spain, both stricter than in the UK, have not shown a significant levelling off if at all and our trajectory is just as bad. I have a colleague in Italy and they are very worried. They had hoped to see a levelling off around 26th-30th of this month, so still time. However, it is starting to look like the South could be heading the same way as the North and apart from lockdowns there is no plan B to counteract the virus. Same as everwhere else.

Fair points.

[Shah johns]

2 hours ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

I'm staying with a girl I've been seeing for around 4 months, her, her 7 year old daughter and me, it's stressing me the hell out, we're trying to give the little girl structure with a bit of learning, bit of creative time and some garden play, but she is winding me up something chronic, everything her mum tells her to do is met with some form of frustration or verbal outrage, we were long distance before all this and to go from that to living together for what has already been 12 days is really trying my patience, I've never been with a girl who has kids before and obviously this isn't a normal situation where I can pop to the pub or have my day at work to occupy myself, just seems like I can't get a break, the little girl will literally follow me up the stairs to the toilet and sits outside 'are you finished yet let's play!' it's driving me mad, it's 15+ hours a day and I'm just not used to it and not coping all that well, and I feel guilty, she's not going to school, expending enough energy and it's not fair on her either, sure people are in far worse positions than me I just needed a rant. 

Hang in there mate, strange times for everyone and they probably feel as weird about the situation as you do, at least you have some company so try and make the most of it, focus on the positives.

[Lionator]

14 minutes ago, reynard said:

I can't see there being a cat in hells chance of the death rate declining in the first full week of April though it would be great  news if so. The death rate is doubling every 2.5 days in the UK. So we will have 1500 dead when the figures are released in 48 hours time. We haven't tested enough as you say to know how many are infected but by the end of the first week of April it is hard to see the numbers dropping especially as we actually start to get our act together and test more people.

The lockdowns  in Italy and Spain, both stricter than in the UK, have not shown a significant levelling off if at all and our trajectory is just as bad. I have a colleague in Italy and they are very worried. They had hoped to see a levelling off around 26th-30th of this month, so still time. However, it is starting to look like the South could be heading the same way as the North and apart from lockdowns there is no plan B to counteract the virus. Same as everwhere else.

The lockdowns in Spain and Italy are working. While the deaths are going up, cases are stagnating and you’ll start seeing a decline in new cases in the next couple of weeks. Remember all those dying now would have been infected before the lockdown. It takes anywhere between 2 and 4 weeks to die from this. While the south of Italy does seem exposed, the lockdowns will have affected the peak, whereas Lombardy, well it was pretty much everywhere there before a lockdown was even in the conversation. 

[StanSP]

If anyone's a bit bored, BBC Sport are re-running Croatia vs England from Euro 2004 on their website

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/football/52048861

 

[HankMarvin]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

Informative and optimistic vlog series from a junior doctor:

 

 

Makes an interesting point towards the end - he says the NHS are the LAST line of defence; the general public is actually the front line in the fight against the virus - we're the people who are making the biggest difference by just staying at home, which sounds simple, but in reality, a lot of people have had to sacrifice a hell of a lot just to safe other people's lives. 

 

Things are difficult, and they will worse, but it will eventually get better. 

 

Stay strong. Stay safe. Stay home.

which would be fine, it we could get the food we needed delivered 

[messerschmitt]

1 hour ago, WigstonWanderer said:

As bad as this period is for some people I have a feeling that this will turn out to be the easy bit. I dread what comes after. Ruined economies, recession or worse, bankrupt governments around the world, mass unemployment and poverty. I just hope that law and order, and the banking system survive.

Tried to explain exactly this to someone last week but i don't think they understood the concept.